Election Experts: Issue 8

Tasks of the post-election period.

In the first months, while various options for Russia’s strategic development are being developed and assessed, further actions will be necessary to maintain the high rating of Putin and now his team. Broad support from the elites and masses will be needed when a new program is announced, otherwise there will be general cooling and, as a consequence, a sharp strengthening of opposition groups.

Long-term problems that the country needs to solve.

The most important component of the country's strategic development is an agreement with the West. Without it, Russia faces political isolation, economic and cultural collapse and, in the long term, the collapse of the federation. The current anti-Western sentiment is only a temporary stage in a multi-step process caused by the need to win elections, as well as to reconsider the place and role of the Kremlin in the global balance of power. The continuation of democratic reforms is inevitable, if only out of the instinct of self-preservation. However, this will be done differently than under Yeltsin. Local copying of the external attributes of Western democracy caused a certain irritation and resistance among the masses, constantly reminding them of their own inferiority, so a reorientation of the outward focus is logical. For example, protecting the rights of the Russian-speaking population in the former republics of the USSR, the ideological struggle against Central Asian despotism - here Russian values ​​can look very advantageous. In this field, human rights activities become politics, outstripping in their effectiveness the economic levers that are now in the hands of the West. In general, the Kremlin will strive to restore its role as an arbiter in the post-Soviet space, but to do this, it first of all needs to solve the problem of Chechnya in a way that satisfies both the Chechens, the Russians, and the West.

Are the country and its elites ready for Putin the President?

The country surrendered to the new president out of impulse and now it will be painful to decide whether the love was real. The elites are not only ready, but have been working for Putin for a long time.

How will the positions of the media, oligarchs, and officials change after the elections?

The positions of the media will most likely not change significantly. Even if there are serious attempts to directly or indirectly put pressure on the independent press on the part of the state, they will cause a backlash and ultimately turn out to be unprofitable for the regime itself, which will prefer investing in its own media. The position of the oligarchs will strengthen, since their weakening is disadvantageous to the current Kremlin. It is reasonable to stop prosecutions against key figures. The fight against corruption will lead to the “legalization” of big capital in one form or another and will further weaken the influence of the state on the economic sector, from where we can expect a mass exodus of functionaries. But the positions of officials from security, strategic and ideological departments will strengthen, and regional elites will surrender part of their powers to the center.

Will there be personnel changes in the presidential office and in the government?

If the strategic program starts as described above, of course. Hypothetically, it is even possible for new professional organizations to emerge, working under an agreement with the FSB, the Ministry of Defense, ideological services, and the presidential office.

Opposition to Putin - who is it?

First of all - communists. They use any mistakes of the new team to expand their influence on society. If Putin does not live up to Russian expectations, the next president could well be Zyuganov or his as-yet-unknown successor.