Matthew W. Beale. Life after Microsoft: Linux takes command

While the Linux hype has died down a bit—stock prices were down significantly well before the Nasdaq stock market crash in April—Linux's position in the market has certainly not wavered. The upstart OS continues to benefit from Microsoft's woes, continually undercutting it in the server operating system market, especially those aimed at Internet applications.

Research results from International Data Corp. (IDC) released this week essentially confirmed not only that the open platform is the fastest-growing operating system on the market, but also that its sales are "closely tied to the Internet."

"More than 40 percent of applications running on Linux servers are connected to the Internet," noted Michelle Bailey, research manager at IDC in the Wide Open News report. "Linux servers are now fully integrated into the Internet infrastructure and provide serious competition to Windows NT, as well as other UNIX servers."

Growing indicators

However, the latest growth figures pale in comparison to those released earlier this year, which showed Linux taking second place in terms of operating system sales. Second only to Windows NT, Linux performed excellently: 5.4 million copies were sold in 1999. The upstart OS beat analysts who predicted the milestone would be reached in 2002 or even 2003. Although Linux's 1999 revenues were just $32 million, according to IDC, compared to Windows NT's $1.7 billion, analysts say current growth rates—166 percent annually, according to IDC—are evidence of that. that Linux will become a serious competitor in the coming years.

Microsoft factor

While the antitrust trial, which had caused so much noise, was going on, and federal prosecutors at press time were proposing measures to combat Microsoft, electronics specialists were trying to imagine what the situation would be like when passions subsided. In the near future, most likely, significant changes will not occur. Microsoft announced it would appeal; This will delay the introduction of antimonopoly measures for several years.

But the long-term impact could be significant, and some experts say the breakup of the much-coveted software giant could actually open the door to new ideas and revitalize the market.

If Microsoft is eventually split into several companies, those new companies will focus on the Windows operating system and applications in the Microsoft Office family. This prospect was not very popular with investors, but it did inspire some developers. The point is that when more applications become available for other operating systems, and especially Linux, the new Microsoft companies will have to seriously pursue new developments or suffer the consequences of market competition. Judging by the objectives formulated by the US Department of Justice, the consumer should, in theory, only benefit from this.

Back to source code

The idea of ​​breaking up Microsoft, however, was not met with approval by everyone, and some analysts believe that the result of this action will only be the creation of smaller monopolies. Many observers would prefer another solution that has also been proposed: open source Windows, making it available to developers in order to increase competition and create new business opportunities.

The idea of ​​an open operating system, in which the source code is completely accessible to users and therefore can be changed, is gaining increasing support among theorists and practitioners. Source code is the basic instructions for the operating system.

However, this method of dealing with the software giant was unlikely to be reliable. Some developers feared that such a move would only muddy the waters, forcing Microsoft to obstruct the process in any way possible.

In all likelihood, Microsoft will delay enforcement of the court's decision for a long time, starting an appeal process. However, the future of Windows remains a pressing question as the operating system market seeks change and an environment of rapidly changing roles and players.

Internet as a battlefield

Meanwhile, the market itself could deliver its verdict on Microsoft, much more severe than the one announced by Judge Jackson - and the Internet would become the decisive battlefield in this war. The impetus that gave rise to the antitrust process was Microsoft's attempts to tightly tie its Internet browser to the Windows operating system.

Linux, which has proven itself well in the field of the Internet, continues to benefit from Microsoft's troubles here, as well as other platforms, including BSD (Berkeley System Distribution). Critics of Microsoft have long pointed out that the software giant is falling behind in the ever-evolving Internet market.

Mr. Bill decides not to stand on ceremony anymore?

For months now, the Internet has been abuzz with rumors about Microsoft's efforts to clip the upstart OS's wings, from predictions that the software giant will open source Windows CE to fantasies that it will begin distributing its own flavor of Linux. Although Microsoft is rumored to have created a task force to assess the threat that Linux actually poses, the measures it is taking are actually not that drastic at all.

With Microsoft's acquisition of UNIX firm Softway Systems in September 1999, Microsoft is, according to several press reports, beginning its own production of Interix to coincide with the upcoming release of Windows Services for UNIX (SFU). While SFU provides interoperability between Windows 2000 and UNIX, Interix is ​​the interface between Windows and UNIX and its various environments.

It's safe to assume that users will abandon what Microsoft tells them is a losing proposition and switch to Windows. Linux is one of several flavors of UNIX, which also includes HP UX, Monterey and Solaris. This tactic appears to be aimed at Linux, despite the fact that in the past - it is rarely remembered - Microsoft was somehow associated with Linux.

When Microsoft first appeared, it entered into a cooperation agreement in the field of software development with SCO (Santa Cruz Operation). According to IT-Director.com, the two companies worked together on Xenix2, a flavor of UNIX specifically designed for Intel 8086 chips. Microsoft ultimately backed out of the collaboration, but Xenix2 was later spun off by Monterey. Microsoft also remains an investor in SCO.

While maintaining its connection to UNIX, Microsoft in February of this year announced its plans to combine Windows 2000 and Interix with the obvious goal of increasing demand for its latest developments at a time when the consumer market was somewhat damaged by ill-will caused by the antitrust case. Windows 2000 has been well received, and some experts are advising companies to wait to move to the new software package until some well-known problems are resolved.

The announcement of SFU 2.0 this month makes it clear that Microsoft has not forgotten about UNIX and is quietly suppressing any attempts to burn that bridge. It was also reported that Microsoft uses UNIX for its internal purposes: testing and making copies.

Microsoft has made other overt moves toward UNIX and its cousins, including its January 2000 announcement that it would release a version of Windows Media Player for Linux.

Some cash for the giants

An indication that Linux is on track is that tech giants have recently turned to open operating systems, perhaps because their fears of possible retaliation from Microsoft have eased. The support of industry leaders may also mean that while Windows still has the lion's share of the OS market, the post-Microsoft era has in some ways already arrived.

IBM has significantly increased its investment in open platforms and most recently launched new products in the server market with Linux vendors Red Hat and TurboLinux . The list of other companies working with Linux reads like a Who's Who of the Tech Industry. While the future of Microsoft remains somewhat unclear, these giants are gradually pushing Linux to the top.

Thus, Compaq Computer Corp. in 1999, it took first place in sales in the field of Linux servers - its production profit amounted to $84 million. were also among the top five companies to benefit from Linux collaboration, according to IDC. IBM, Dell , Hewlett-Packard and Fujitsu Ltd . Linux-focused hardware vendors VA Linux Systems and Penguin Computing remained among the players, however, with a combined 47.1 percent share of the Linux server market.

Red Hat & Co. are exploring new directions

Meanwhile, Linux software vendors, driven by growing market pressure, have begun to venture into new directions. So, Red Hat, Inc. released new versions of its Linux OS, designed specifically for enterprise applications associated with Oracle8i and other leading products in the field of Internet commerce.

Caldera Systems, Inc. , having demonstrated its eServer 2.3 running OpenLinux at the New York LinuxWorld Expo in January of this year, it became something of a pioneer in Internet commerce. Meanwhile, TurboLinux moved into the high-performance Linux arena, getting into the business of building Linux-based clusters.

Torvalds kernel

In connection with the release of Windows 2000, analysts noted that while Microsoft was adding millions of new lines to the OS code, many developers who thoroughly understood the Windows kernel left the company. The kernel is the central component of the operating system, responsible for processes such as interacting with hardware, memory management, and security.

The gradual increase in brain drain hit Microsoft even earlier, when its top employees left to pursue software and commercial sites on their own. Experts predicted that this trend would increase sharply due to the government action against this software manufacturer.

According to analysts, the hasty replenishment of the ranks of kernel developers could prevent the company from developing and confirming its dominant position in the OS market. However, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer tried to sweeten the pill by promising better conditions for shareholders to compensate for the recent decline.

As for the development of the Linux kernel, it is still controlled by the creator of Linux, Linus Torvalds. The powerful momentum Linux has received, coupled with the belief that the open platform is becoming an increasingly viable and cost-effective software tool, empowers Linux leaders to do much more to change the market than the government can.

Translation by Olga Yurchenko