Alexey Grekov. Eternal friendship for Askar Akayev?

Eternal friendship for Askar Akayev?
Alexey Grekov

Publication date: August 1, 2000

President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin, receiving the President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akaev during his first official visit to Moscow, thanked him and the deputies of the Kyrgyz parliament for recently adopting a law on the state status of the Russian language in this country. “This means that the political leadership of Kyrgyzstan views relations with Russia as a priority and designed for the long term,” V. Putin noted. The topic of Russian-Kyrgyz relations received even greater development at the meeting of Askar Akayev with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov. The Russian Prime Minister emphasized that "Kyrgyzstan is one of the most important priorities of Russian foreign policy in the Central Asian region."

The cornerstone of Russian-Kyrgyz relations was the Declaration of Eternal Friendship and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Kyrgyzstan, previously announced as an agreement. This document emphasizes that in the event of an act of aggression against any of the parties, the Russian Federation and Kyrgyzstan will provide each other with “the necessary assistance, including military assistance.” In Moscow, at his press conference, President A. Akaev repeatedly emphasized that the lessons of the Batken military conflict with invading Uzbek militants last summer once again convinced him of the faithfulness of Kyrgyzstan's orientation towards military-technical cooperation with Russia. The results were not long in coming. With the help of the Russian Ministry of Defense, the Kyrgyz part of the air defense system is being modernized. Russia will also provide its military training grounds for live firing by air defense units of Kyrgyzstan. And on the basis of an agreement with the Ministry of Atomic Energy of the Russian Federation, Kyrgyzstan is strengthening its external borders, using unique electronic systems developed by the Russian Minatom. Considering the fact that Kyrgyzstan still has unresolved controversial issues of its borders with neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, inherited from the former USSR, it can clearly be assumed that here, too, Kyrgyzstan cannot do without the Russian Federation.

Another weak point of Kyrgyzstan, forcing its president to seek Russian patronage, is that virtually the entire industry of Kyrgyzstan - especially enterprises of the former Soviet military-industrial complex - can only earn money with the help of Russian technologies, and only the Russian-speaking population, among whom there are many, is able to service high-tech production in Kyrgyzstan highly qualified specialists.

And just with the Russian-speaking population, called “Kyrgyz Slavs” by President A. Akaev, things are not going very smoothly. The numbers speak for themselves. Thus, according to statistics from 1989, 915 thousand Russians lived in Kyrgyzstan. However, according to 2000 data, only 615 thousand Russians remain in this country. According to Askar Akayev, “300 thousand, unfortunately, left.” At the same time, the President of Kyrgyzstan believes that the “linguistic and cultural factor” of the departure of the Russian-speaking population from his country has “finally been removed.” As confirmation, A. Akaev cites the fact that Russian is now officially considered the second state language in Kyrgyzstan. But the socio-economic situation remains, namely, rampant unemployment among the highly qualified labor force of the Russian-speaking population of Kyrgyzstan. And here - with the wave of a magic wand - the Russian Federation comes to the rescue. A package of economic agreements promises the creation of thirty thousand new jobs in Kyrgyzstan!

Another promising direction for expanding Russian-Kyrgyz cooperation - and, therefore, a possible lever for preventing a mass exodus of Russian and Russian-speaking specialists from Kyrgyzstan - is to increase the number of joint Russian-Kyrgyz enterprises. Their number has recently reached almost a thousand. However, the difficult socio-economic situation is the reason for the departure of the Kyrgyz themselves. Today, about three hundred thousand ethnic Kyrgyz live in the Urals and Siberia, and from this follows another factor in the expansion of Russian-Kyrgyz relations: by the end of 2000, a general consulate and a trade mission of Kyrgyzstan will open in Yekaterinburg, the industrial capital of the Ural region.

By the way, the President of Kyrgyzstan Askar Akayev has enlisted the support of the President of the Russian Federation V. Putin in order for the next meeting of the Council of Heads of State of the CIS Collective Security Treaty to be held in October in Bishkek. And this is no coincidence. The fact is that presidential elections are due to take place in Kyrgyzstan in October. In all likelihood, the most serious rival and oppositionist of Askar Akayev, who has caused a lot of headaches for the President of Kyrgyzstan and damaged his image of the head of “the only country in Central Asia with a democratic society,” Felix Kulov, will participate in the struggle for the main seat in Bishkek. Thus, the current president of Kyrgyzstan will have another powerful argument in favor of winning over voters by standing as the only candidate concerned about the problems of security and stability in Kyrgyzstan. And not only in it, but in all the countries of the region, over which, like the sword of Damocles, hangs Afghanistan, which is not getting out of the quagmire of a long-term war!

There is no doubt that friendship and deepening relations with the Russian Federation give Askar Akaev a chance to once again try his luck at occupying the number one post in Kyrgyzstan. Although a number of observers believe that A. Akaev is unlikely to break the tradition of lifelong presidency that has developed in some Central Asian countries. Whether the current president of Kyrgyzstan will achieve such a feat, time will tell. However, he was not lying at his Moscow press conference when he said that in connection with his participation in the upcoming presidential elections, he likens himself to an ancient Chinese philosopher who is digging a well, but does not yet know whether he will reach the water.

What does eternal friendship with Kyrgyzstan promise for Russia? Informed sources, regarding the closed part of the negotiations between the President of Kyrgyzstan A. Akaev and the heads of the Russian security agencies in Moscow, not without reason, suggest that the Russian security forces promised the leader of Kyrgyzstan all possible assistance and support in strengthening peace, stability and security in this country, especially in terms of fighting all kinds of international terrorists and religious extremists sent from Afghanistan and Pakistan, in exchange for Kyrgyzstan joining the union state of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. As for the trade and economic benefits from expanding and deepening relations with Kyrgyzstan for the Russian Federation, there is, alas, nothing to boast about yet. Facts are stubborn things, or as they say in the East, you can’t cover the sun with your palm: the trade turnover between the Russian Federation and Kyrgyzstan last year amounted to not much more than 5 million US dollars. In this context, Advisor to the President of Kyrgyzstan on International Affairs Askar Aitmatov spoke very eloquently: “Despite the priority in the development of bilateral relations between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Russian Federation, confirmed at the highest state level, the socio-economic potential of our countries is still far from being fully used.” I don't think there's anything to add to this.