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Ivan Davydov. Mass media of the Russian Internet. Main development trends and analysis of the current situation
Mass media of the Russian Internet. Main development trends and analysis of the current situation
Analytical report
Date of publication: September 28, 2000
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Before proceeding to describe the development trends of the media sector of the Russian Internet, characteristic of various periods of its existence (and, accordingly, to propose a periodization option), it would be reasonable to classify the types of resources presented within the sector. Moreover, there is still no generally accepted classification of resources.
First of all, it is reasonable to distinguish
Currently, the Internet media sector is one of the most actively developing, perhaps even the most actively developing, in Russia. At the same time, the situation that has developed in the media sector of the Russian Internet at the moment can well be characterized as a crisis. The combination of these two statements may seem paradoxical, but both have objective reasons.
From the point of view of analyzing the actions of major players and, accordingly, highlighting trends in the development of the sector, this period is the least interesting, since the Internet in Russia at that time remained a marginal medium, accessible to a very narrow circle of users. The big players were, in fact, simply absent. Those of them who had already announced their existence at that time were not particularly active; the implementation of projects was (even within large companies, including those that now occupy leading positions in various sectors of the Russian Internet), rather, the work of individual amateurs.
The first peak of activity in the development of professional media resources on the Russian Internet occurred from the end of 1998 to the spring of 2000. It was during this period that almost all the resources that now define the image of the Russian media Internet appeared (or took leading positions) (Not a complete list: the first and second versions of Gazeta.Ru, SMI.Ru, Utro.Ru, " Vesti.Ru", APN, "Deadline.Ru", "Lenta.Ru" and many others.) In addition, it was during this period that two rather primitive strategies for the development of online media resources were implemented, which remain the main ones to this day: the strategy of a news feed and a more or less complete analogue of an off-line magazine (some analogues of this kind were called newspapers, which did not change things). By the way, it was the success of news feeds, which peaked during this period, that determined the main strategies for implementing media resources during the “investment boom” period. Overall, these strategies proved to be unsuccessful over time.
At the beginning of 2000, the term “investment boom” began to be used in relation to the Russian Internet. It was then that a number of new players (in most cases associated with Western investment companies) began developing new ones and purchasing popular Internet resources that already existed at that time. The peak of activity of this genus occurred in the spring of 2000. It is worth noting that investors were most active in sectors related to various Internet services, as well as in the field of e-commerce. However, the changes also affected projects that are fully or partially related to the media sector of the Russian Internet. It must also be borne in mind that the excitement surrounding the so-called "investment boom" was seriously exaggerated from the very beginning. Often, journalists who wrote about this simply wishful thinking. In reality, the list of companies investing significant sums in the development of Internet projects was very small.
Currently, it is customary to call almost any large resource, including monothematic ones, portals.
“News organizers” (the slang name is “garbage collectors”) are projects that do not have their own exclusive content. Such projects accumulate texts or hyperlinks to texts published in other publications, dividing them into categories or in the form of an uncategorized feed. Often it was within the framework of such a strategy that the information components of service and entertainment portals were implemented. In addition, there are projects that combine the functions of a “news organizer” and a publication with their own content.
Today, almost all central state media have Internet versions. However, the above analysis of trends in the development of Internet media has the most indirect relation to them: with extremely rare exceptions (such as the website of the Mayak radio company), the developers of these sites made virtually no attempts to provide their resources with sufficient weight, attract the maximum audience and occupy an empty niche of suppliers of official information within the media sector of the Russian Internet. In part, the function of providers of information of this kind is performed by the official websites of various government agencies; but, firstly, they are not media in the proper sense of the word; secondly, most of these resources are extremely unsatisfactory in many respects.
Almost all of the provisions formulated above relate mainly to resources that have all-Russian status. At the regional level, the Internet media system remains extremely undeveloped (which, of course, is primarily due to the geography of the domestic Internet: the majority of users are residents of Moscow, St. Petersburg and several large centers). For example, a significant number of traditional regional media have Internet versions, but they are practically not in demand by users, since most of the audience for which they are designed does not have access to the Internet and is focused on other sources of information; at the same time, for the existing Internet audience, this information is too local and therefore uninteresting.
The situation in the media sector of the Russian Internet, therefore, as a whole can be characterized as a crisis. The most large-scale media projects of the “investment boom” period, implemented within the framework of the two strategies described above - as media components of service and entertainment portals or as “news organizers”, were unable to occupy any noticeable place in the media sector; The leaders remain projects that were created and gained popularity before the period of the “investment boom.”
The development of large-scale Internet projects is directly related to very optimistic forecasts regarding the growth in the number of Internet users. According to sociological agencies, the total Internet audience in Russia currently reaches six and a half million people and will grow by at least 25 percent in the near future.
In addition, the following opinion was and remains very popular and still often repeated among network experts: the audience of leading Internet publications is negligible compared to the audience of leading traditional, especially electronic media. But at the same time, due to the specifics of the spread of the Internet in Russia, the majority of this audience consists of the most valuable, both from the point of view of advertising and from the point of view of organizing influence, consumers of information: top managers and middle managers in large companies, specialists in the field of media , government officials at various levels, etc. Unfortunately, this point of view has not been supported by any research.
In addition, the media sector of the Russian Internet is now experiencing a so-called “secondary crisis.” A number of its features have already been discussed in relation to “news organizers.” However, in general it is much broader; the problem is not unique to projects of this type.
Last but not least, the most primitive models for the creation and development of information resources were most often implemented, and the quality of the output product was such that neither the size of the investment nor large-scale advertising campaigns could save the project from collapse - due to the lack of sufficient quantity on the market competent specialists in all fields. In the media sector, this was most pronounced during the second and third periods, when the demand for specialists clearly exceeded the supply.
The immediate consequences of the crisis in the media sector of the Russian Internet may be the following events.
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Analytical report
Date of publication: September 28, 2000
receive by email print version This text is a fragment of a report dedicated to the release of the National Information Service "Strana.Ru".
The full text of the document contains several appendices, which are abbreviated versions of dossiers on the players who are currently most active in the media sector of the Russian Internet. The dossiers were prepared as part of the upcoming IDB project by employees of the research department of the Internet Department of the FEP. Let me say that, together with the appendices, the report has become a unique reference book on the Russian media Internet, which has no analogues today. Unfortunately, the circulation of the version published offline is extremely limited.
That is why this publication is being undertaken. Today, only the analytical part of the report, written by me, is published in RZh and SMI.ru. Of course, this view of the problem is largely limited, if only because it is subjective. Nevertheless, recognizing the relativity and even the possible fallacy of the provisions formulated in the text, I consider them quite important. It seems to me that they are worthy of at least the critical attention of the public. And therefore I am very grateful to everyone who gave me the opportunity to publish this text, as well as to those who helped me during the work process. I am very sorry that the volumes, excessive for the web, do not allow publishing applications, but everyone will soon be able to get acquainted with a much more complete version of them within the framework of the IDB project.
Sincerely,
Ivan Davydov,
Head of the research department of the Internet department of FEP.
1. Introduction
Before proceeding to describe the development trends of the media sector of the Russian Internet, characteristic of various periods of its existence (and, accordingly, to propose a periodization option), it would be reasonable to classify the types of resources presented within the sector. Moreover, there is still no generally accepted classification of resources.
1.1. Options for classification of media resources presented on the Russian Internet
First of all, it is reasonable to distinguish
a) online publications themselves (that is, those that are published only on the Internet)
and
b) online versions of traditional media.
Further, online media can be divided according to the type of content presented on them; There are two possible classifications here:
(1)
news,
commentary,
mixed;
(2)
copyright,
editorial,
mixed.
Classification by subject is also possible:
monothematic (within this group the division can become almost endless due to the abundance of options for monothematic resources presented)
and
polythematic;
and classification by affiliation:
state-owned
belonging to media groups,
political groups,
business groups,
independent (however, at the moment there are no significant independent media resources).
In addition, the division is significant, which, despite the terminology used, relates not so much to the geographical location of the editorial offices of specific resources, but to the audience to which these resources are primarily aimed:
all-Russian resources,
regional resources (this type can also include foreign Russian-language resources aimed at relatively narrow diasporas).
Previous attempts at classification have also paid attention to the different elements of interactivity within different types of resources. Currently, elements of interactivity do not play a significant role for the most significant Internet media resources. Many leading projects within this sector have no interactive elements at all.
2. Russian media Internet: periodization
Currently, the Internet media sector is one of the most actively developing, perhaps even the most actively developing, in Russia. At the same time, the situation that has developed in the media sector of the Russian Internet at the moment can well be characterized as a crisis. The combination of these two statements may seem paradoxical, but both have objective reasons.
The history of Russian online media can be roughly divided into four periods.
The first is from the appearance of the first Russian Internet resources (it is worth noting that most of them were developed, for obvious reasons, by representatives of the Russian diaspora abroad, primarily in Israel and the USA) until the end of 1998. This period is characterized by the predominance of copyright resources, a small number of large players in the market and their low activity and, accordingly, a low level of investment in the Internet media sector. (The predominant resources in accordance with the classifications given above (in accordance with the order of classifications): commentary and mixed; author and mixed; dominant players - none.)
Second: 1999 - early 2000. This period is characterized by an increase in activity in the media sector, associated primarily with the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation (December 19, 1999) and the elections of the President of the Russian Federation (March 26, 2000). Accordingly, during this period, a number of new players appeared on the Internet with certain interests in the media and politics, and the growth of investments in the development of online media increased significantly. It was during this period that the majority of Internet projects were developed and opened, which are now leaders in the media sphere of the Russian Internet. (Predominant resources: news and mixed, editorial; dominant players - media and political groups.)
The third - from the beginning of 2000. This is the period of the so-called “investment boom”. This period is characterized by the entry of new players into the market, who (unlike the players active in the second period) did not have specific interests in the political sphere. These were mainly companies associated with Western (primarily American) venture capital. This period is characterized by numerous attempts to implement the primitively understood “American model” on the Russian Internet and the development of large information (or having an information component) resources, not quite rightfully called “portals.” (Predominant resources: news, editorial, dominant players - the same as in the second period, plus business groups.)
The formal start date of the fourth period can be considered September 8, 2000, when it became known about the closure of one of the most ambitious projects characteristic of the third period - the Pole.Ru portal. In any case, we are on the threshold of the fourth period, which is likely to be characterized by the following features: the continued predominance of news resources while the importance of commentary and mixed types of resources increases; reducing the influence of business groups themselves on the media sector.
3. The first period of development of the media sector of the Russian Internet in Russia
From the point of view of analyzing the actions of major players and, accordingly, highlighting trends in the development of the sector, this period is the least interesting, since the Internet in Russia at that time remained a marginal medium, accessible to a very narrow circle of users. The big players were, in fact, simply absent. Those of them who had already announced their existence at that time were not particularly active; the implementation of projects was (even within large companies, including those that now occupy leading positions in various sectors of the Russian Internet), rather, the work of individual amateurs.
At the same time, it was during this period that a list of people was formed who still determine the direction of development of various sectors of the Russian Internet. Of course, the circle of these people was quite narrow and formed by chance, which ultimately led to crisis consequences (this is described in more detail below). Nevertheless, the fact remains: the future top management of currently leading projects (and this applies primarily to media projects) came to the Internet precisely then.
It is important to note an essential feature of the first period, which is not typical for later stages of development of the media sector: providers played an important role in the formation of content projects. The websites of large providers became a kind of portals that united various projects, including media ones. At the moment, this trend, as will be shown below, has partially continued only at the regional level.
4. Activation of the media sector of the Russian Internet
The first peak of activity in the development of professional media resources on the Russian Internet occurred from the end of 1998 to the spring of 2000. It was during this period that almost all the resources that now define the image of the Russian media Internet appeared (or took leading positions) (Not a complete list: the first and second versions of Gazeta.Ru, SMI.Ru, Utro.Ru, " Vesti.Ru", APN, "Deadline.Ru", "Lenta.Ru" and many others.) In addition, it was during this period that two rather primitive strategies for the development of online media resources were implemented, which remain the main ones to this day: the strategy of a news feed and a more or less complete analogue of an off-line magazine (some analogues of this kind were called newspapers, which did not change things). By the way, it was the success of news feeds, which peaked during this period, that determined the main strategies for implementing media resources during the “investment boom” period. Overall, these strategies proved to be unsuccessful over time.
This peak in activity was not accidental and is directly related to the pre-election situation - all of the above resources appeared during the period between the Duma and presidential election campaigns. In this regard, one of the characteristic features of the period is that the most active players were companies with certain interests in the political and media spheres outside the Internet (unlike the period of the “investment boom”). The undisputed leader, both in terms of quantity and quality of implemented resources, of this period is the Effective Policy Foundation, which now maintains a leading position in the media sphere of the domestic Internet.
The pre-election situation was characterized by a request for the maximum number of channels for disseminating information. The Internet could and did satisfy this request. In addition, the development of online media resources was much cheaper than their offline counterparts. As the next elections approached, the rush of user demand for political information grew, allowing online media, which were superior to their off-line counterparts in efficiency, to constantly increase their attendance. Accordingly, Internet media were mentioned quite often in traditional ones, which increased their significance. The situation was unusually successful for the implementation and development of media projects.
Of course, it was the significant success of Internet media during this period (however, no more than the success and significance of a number of election projects that were not mass media in the proper sense of the word) that changed the status of the Internet in the consciousness of part of Russian society and served as one of the reasons for the so-called "investment boom", and not only in the media sphere.
It is impossible not to note the obvious mistakes associated with an incorrect assessment of the prospects of the Internet and an overestimation of the importance of Internet media: first of all, the success of projects of this period was purely situational. Of course, the most successful projects managed to maintain and even increase their attendance, but their significance decreased significantly in the conditions of the demand for new channels for dumping information guaranteed by the pre-election situation. For example, the frequency of references to them in traditional, primarily electronic, media has decreased, during the pre-election situation not due to the exceptional quality of online media content, but to the inability to “smuggle” certain types of information onto the air in any other way. These errors, along with other reasons, a detailed analysis of which is given below, led to the systemic crisis currently experienced by domestic Internet media.
5. The media sector of the Russian Internet during the “investment boom”
At the beginning of 2000, the term “investment boom” began to be used in relation to the Russian Internet. It was then that a number of new players (in most cases associated with Western investment companies) began developing new ones and purchasing popular Internet resources that already existed at that time. The peak of activity of this genus occurred in the spring of 2000. It is worth noting that investors were most active in sectors related to various Internet services, as well as in the field of e-commerce. However, the changes also affected projects that are fully or partially related to the media sector of the Russian Internet. It must also be borne in mind that the excitement surrounding the so-called "investment boom" was seriously exaggerated from the very beginning. Often, journalists who wrote about this simply wishful thinking. In reality, the list of companies investing significant sums in the development of Internet projects was very small.
The focus of new players on areas that are traditionally profitable and popular on the Western Internet has also left its mark on the strategies for implementing new projects in the media sector.
But before we talk about the actual strategies for implementing projects, it is necessary to note an important detail: the new players acted in two ways - either they began developing projects from scratch, or they acquired an already popular project (sometimes a group of projects - this is how, for example, the Russian Funds company acted) and already on its basis, the development of a new resource, usually a portal type, began.
Another important detail: during this period, not only foreign investors became active. During this period, traditional leaders in the off-line sphere of mass media also became active on the Internet. First of all, these are Vladimir Gusinsky (as you know, Media-Most created a special structure - MeMoNet, which develops projects on the Internet) and Boris Berezovsky (the resources under his control are currently united within the framework of the Post Factum portal). Of course, one cannot help but note the fact that the arrival of media giants (for example, the NTV.Ru portal) to the network has significantly raised the bar for quality requirements for Internet media resources. At the same time, a number of mistakes were made, both traditional for the period as a whole (adopted development strategies, methods of solving personnel problems, etc.), and characteristic only of these players (focus primarily on the development of Internet versions of traditional media and, in general, a desire to transfer relationship systems that have proven themselves offline to online).
5.1. Strategies for the development of Internet projects during the “investment boom”
In fact, during this period, the most active of the new players implemented two strategies (sometimes combined) for the creation and development of Internet projects in the media sphere. Accordingly, two types of projects dominated.
The most common types of media projects characteristic of the third period:
a) "portal";
b) "news organizer".
5.1.1. Portal
Currently, it is customary to call almost any large resource, including monothematic ones, portals.
As a rule, the portals that appeared in the wake of the “investment boom” were not media resources themselves, but almost all of them included a media component (at least a news feed).
Most of the portals of this generation had a fairly standard scheme: combining the maximum number of any services (the set and quantity, as well as the quality of which depended not on any clear logic of project development, but on the capabilities of the developer company) - free mail, free hosting, interactive components , search engines, etc. These services also included a media component: most often in the form of a news feed, less often in more complex forms.
The strategy of developers of portal-type resources is quite simple: obviously, when developing resources of this type, they proceed from the desire to present the user with the maximum capabilities of the Internet within the framework of one site or a system of interconnected sites (the experience of the Port.Ru company), so that he does not have the need to switch to other resources that do not belong to this company.
As part of such a strategy, the inclusion of information blocks - news feeds, etc. - among the services. - with a variety of topics it looks more or less natural. Recent sociological surveys indicate that approximately half of active users (and an even higher percentage of people planning to connect to the Internet) view the Internet primarily as a source of information (“news” in the terminology adopted in sociological services engaged in Internet research).
At the same time, information blocks on almost all portals of this generation were implemented “on a residual basis.” Most often, it was news divided into standard headings (usually thematic: Politics, Economics, Culture, Sports, Health, Internet - specific names vary on different resources, but the essence does not change). This kind of news content was duplicated on almost all types of resources, and in terms of efficiency, coverage and quality it was significantly inferior to similar content from specialized resources.
In addition, many portals used (and continue to use) the strategy of “news organizers” to fill information blocks, the hopes for which were not justified (details below). Moreover, it was often implemented in the most primitive forms.
It is not surprising that none of these resources was able to become one of the leaders in the information market, despite the huge volumes of investments by the standards of the domestic Internet (see also the attached table) and massive advertising campaigns conducted not only on the Internet, but also offline. -line.
Moreover, certain services of large portals (primarily free mail, free hosting, search engines, various entertainment and interactive components) are very popular. It is worth noting here that the most popular resources remain those developed long before the “investment boom”, which were acquired and partially reconstructed by new active players - for example, the Rambler and Yandex search engines converted into portals.
But now we can say with confidence that even the super-popular service parts of these portals cannot provide any significant traffic to their media components. It cannot be said that the portals’ strategy turned out to be completely wrong, but the media inside the portal did not become a noticeable phenomenon in the corresponding sector of the Russian Internet. They may continue to exist within portals (especially since that part of them, which is implemented according to the principle of “news organizers”, does not require any special costs or special efforts), but it makes no sense to treat them as serious players within the framework of the media itself. sectors.
5.1.2. "News Organizers"
“News organizers” (the slang name is “garbage collectors”) are projects that do not have their own exclusive content. Such projects accumulate texts or hyperlinks to texts published in other publications, dividing them into categories or in the form of an uncategorized feed. Often it was within the framework of such a strategy that the information components of service and entertainment portals were implemented. In addition, there are projects that combine the functions of a “news organizer” and a publication with their own content.
The emergence of such projects is caused by the activation of the Internet media sector, which was discussed above. The main statements on which the strategy for their implementation is based are as follows:
(1) there is a user need to obtain information via the Internet;
(2) there is an overproduction of information (primarily news type);
(3) the organization of competent management of primary information flows (creation of secondary flows) can be no less in demand than the primary information flows themselves.
All such projects (with the possible exception of those that combined the creation of secondary information flows with their own primary information flows) turned out to be very unpopular. This applies even to very large-scale projects with a large number of complex services aimed at information consumers (for example, "Zagolovki.Ru").
The reason for the failure of projects of this kind is primarily due to the fallacy of the second thesis. There is no need to talk about the overproduction of information (primarily news): an extremely small number of leading publications on the market produce more or less exclusive content, the majority, especially in the news part, duplicate information from central agencies. Thus, the truly impressive volume of news from various online publications is very poor in content. Attempts to organize a significant secondary flow on its basis cannot count on the attention of the final consumer of information. Sometimes the situation reached the point of absurdity: the media section of the Yandex portal, working on the principle of a “news organizer,” for example, distributed the same news with different headlines, borrowed from various online publications, into different sections; up to several dozen descriptions of the same event in different online news publications, differing from each other only in the headlines, since all of them were sourced from a report from one of the central news agencies.
Now we can state: attempts to attract users to “news organizers” based on secondary content have been a complete failure. None of the new projects organized on this basis could become one of the leaders in the media sector of the Russian Internet. The creators of a number of similar resources (in particular, the website “Zagolovki.Ru” mentioned above) have already announced that they are moving to implement a new model: the task of attracting the end consumer of information (user) is no longer considered a priority. The main task is to organize the export of thematic news feeds of any level of complexity to interested resources (for example, portals). However, the effectiveness of a strategy of this kind also raises doubts: even now there is no rush demand for such services, and as portal-type resources inevitably abandon attempts to take positions within the media sector, it will only fall. In addition, even at the current level of demand, services of this kind can only exist as free services; it is not possible to assume that the situation will change in the foreseeable future. Interest in this kind of services, as shown by studies conducted in relation to the SMI.Ru website, can be shown by resources classified as marginal, with low levels of traffic and a specific audience: regional resources, foreign Russian-language information and other projects focused on relatively narrow diaspora. However, even in this case there is no need to talk about serious dividends. In addition, according to our information, developers of “news organizers” tend to focus more on large-scale portal-type projects.
6. State media on the Internet
Today, almost all central state media have Internet versions. However, the above analysis of trends in the development of Internet media has the most indirect relation to them: with extremely rare exceptions (such as the website of the Mayak radio company), the developers of these sites made virtually no attempts to provide their resources with sufficient weight, attract the maximum audience and occupy an empty niche of suppliers of official information within the media sector of the Russian Internet. In part, the function of providers of information of this kind is performed by the official websites of various government agencies; but, firstly, they are not media in the proper sense of the word; secondly, most of these resources are extremely unsatisfactory in many respects.
It is also significant that there is not at least one state-owned media outlet on the Russian Internet that is not an Internet version of some traditional media outlet. State media designed specifically for the Internet and aimed at an Internet audience simply do not exist. Accordingly, it makes no sense to talk about any thoughtful and targeted information policy of the state within the Internet.
This approach seems wrong. The above statements about the qualitative and quantitative revaluation of the audience of online media remain valid, however, the following fundamental point cannot be ignored: the Russian Internet is becoming an increasingly significant source of information about the history and current situation in Russia for foreigners; At the same time, the leading positions in the relevant sector are currently occupied by the media, whose owners are often negatively disposed towards the state. Accordingly, the information through which the idea of Russia is formed is extremely one-sided. In addition, all this is true in relation to the Russian Internet audience itself. And, of course, one must keep in mind that the quantitative and qualitative underestimation of this audience, especially in relation to state media, is no less dangerous than its overestimation by private investors.
The above applies primarily to resources designated in one of the above classifications as all-Russian. At the regional level, the state of affairs is such that the division into state and non-state resources turns out to be meaningless.
7. Regional media resources on the Internet
Almost all of the provisions formulated above relate mainly to resources that have all-Russian status. At the regional level, the Internet media system remains extremely undeveloped (which, of course, is primarily due to the geography of the domestic Internet: the majority of users are residents of Moscow, St. Petersburg and several large centers). For example, a significant number of traditional regional media have Internet versions, but they are practically not in demand by users, since most of the audience for which they are designed does not have access to the Internet and is focused on other sources of information; at the same time, for the existing Internet audience, this information is too local and therefore uninteresting.
Actually, Internet media in the regions arise, as a rule, by chance and largely repeat the features characteristic of all-Russian Internet media of the first period. For example, quite often such media are developed with the participation of large local providers.
Obviously, the situation can only change if there is a stable growth of users in the regions.
At the same time, the role that online media could play at various regional levels seems to be very significant: at the moment in Russia there are practically no channels (state, as well as non-state) for broadcasting information at the level of regions as a whole (primarily - at the level of federal districts). At the federal level, this problem is solved with the help of central television channels, but at the regional level, even this possibility often does not exist.
8. Current situation: systemic crisis
The situation in the media sector of the Russian Internet, therefore, as a whole can be characterized as a crisis. The most large-scale media projects of the “investment boom” period, implemented within the framework of the two strategies described above - as media components of service and entertainment portals or as “news organizers”, were unable to occupy any noticeable place in the media sector; The leaders remain projects that were created and gained popularity before the period of the “investment boom.”
Speaking about the crisis, it is necessary to keep in mind: first of all, we are talking about the resources and strategies of the “investment boom” period. Leaders of the Russian Internet media sector continue to develop their projects; The failure of new large-scale initiatives does not mean the collapse of the sector as a whole. But at the same time, some of the problems that caused the crisis are also characteristic of the currently leading resources developed in previous periods. It is quite possible that they will lead the current leaders to a crisis no less serious than the one that the resources that developed within the framework of the strategies of portals and “news organizers” are currently experiencing.
8.1. The most significant causes of the crisis
8.1.1. Reassessment of the audience
8.1.1.1. Quantitative revaluation
The development of large-scale Internet projects is directly related to very optimistic forecasts regarding the growth in the number of Internet users. According to sociological agencies, the total Internet audience in Russia currently reaches six and a half million people and will grow by at least 25 percent in the near future.
Based on this, the prospective traffic of the developed resources and, accordingly, possible dividends from advertising were assessed; in relation to the media - also a possible degree of influence, and so on.
The reason for optimistic assessments of the prospects for the development of resources within the media sector was also the fact that, as noted above, the majority of users, as well as those who are just about to connect, view the Internet primarily as a source of information. About half of the six and a half million were considered potential visitors to online media.
At the same time, the experience of quite successful media created and developed before the period of the “investment boom” was not taken into account: during the period from the end of 1998 to the end of 1999, the attendance of the most popular of them increased by orders of magnitude, in percentage terms - much more seriously than the number of Internet users in the past the same period. If by the end of 1998 two thousand visitors a day (the indicator of one of the leaders of that period - the information and political channel "Polit.Ru") seemed a huge figure, then by the end of 1999 the leaders in popularity ratings from among online media reached figures of twenty - twenty five thousand visitors. These numbers have now doubled. However, fifty thousand visitors is far from the millions that were used to attract large-scale investments in projects in one way or another related to the media sector.
Even at the beginning of the “investment boom” period, the most cautious experts argued that the media sector was not a particularly attractive area for investment. In the absence of a request for the maximum number of channels for releasing certain information (such a request was typical for the period from the end of 1998 to the end of 1999 and even until the end of March 2000 and was determined by the election situation), the only source of income that could justify investments could be the use of Internet media in as advertising platforms. However, even the indicators of attendance of the most popular media obviously do not give the right to count on income that will at least recoup millions of dollars in investment. In addition, we must not forget that media projects from the period of the “investment boom” were not among the leaders. Accordingly, their attendance figures are much more modest.
8.1.1.2. Qualitative revaluation
In addition, the following opinion was and remains very popular and still often repeated among network experts: the audience of leading Internet publications is negligible compared to the audience of leading traditional, especially electronic media. But at the same time, due to the specifics of the spread of the Internet in Russia, the majority of this audience consists of the most valuable, both from the point of view of advertising and from the point of view of organizing influence, consumers of information: top managers and middle managers in large companies, specialists in the field of media , government officials at various levels, etc. Unfortunately, this point of view has not been supported by any research.
But the result obtained when conducting (by questionnaire) a study of the audience of the SMI.Ru website is interesting (this result is also interesting because the exclusive content of the site, which is comments on publications of leading online and offline publications, is focused primarily per trained user). According to the data obtained, a significant part of the site’s audience consists of technical employees of various organizations, most of whom do not occupy high positions. The statement that online media is aimed at decision makers (DMs) is currently nothing more than a myth aimed at an unprepared public.
In addition, up to forty percent of users who regularly read online media live outside of Russia, which significantly reduces their value both in terms of advertising aimed at Russian consumers and in the sense of organizing political or other influence within Russia.
8.1.2. "Secondary crisis"
In addition, the media sector of the Russian Internet is now experiencing a so-called “secondary crisis.” A number of its features have already been discussed in relation to “news organizers.” However, in general it is much broader; the problem is not unique to projects of this type.
The term “secondary crisis” is applicable, first of all, to projects focused on news information (or having a news component; it is worth noting that almost all Internet media projects today have a news component). The essence of the problem comes down to the following: with rare exceptions (news agencies themselves, in some cases - Internet versions of traditional media), Internet media are deprived of exclusive sources of information. As such, news agency feeds and other media (primarily traditional electronic media) are used. Since at the news level the message itself is the determining, and very often the only component, the use of the same sources leads to a complete leveling of the news feeds of online publications.
The user thus finds himself in a so-called non-selection situation: it makes virtually no difference which source he uses to receive news, since the content of the feeds is not much different. The consequence of this is fierce competition in the news part of the media sector, while the factors for winning the competition are not quality, efficiency, etc., which are almost identical for all resources, but the advertising capabilities of the publication and other characteristics that are secondary from the user’s point of view. Since (as shown above) the audience of visitors to news and media resources in general is small, this situation makes it almost impossible for a new resource to take a significant position within the media sector; Moreover, almost all new resources, if we talk about the period of the “investment boom,” did not try to find any new scheme, but preferred to follow well-trodden, obviously unpromising paths. The leaders, the current list of which was finally determined between the end of 1998 and April 2000, fully satisfy the needs of the actual audience within the limits of the information strategies being implemented. Accordingly, the only possibility of success is a fundamentally new strategy, which has not been proposed by anyone until now.
8.1.3. Personnel crisis
Last but not least, the most primitive models for the creation and development of information resources were most often implemented, and the quality of the output product was such that neither the size of the investment nor large-scale advertising campaigns could save the project from collapse - due to the lack of sufficient quantity on the market competent specialists in all fields. In the media sector, this was most pronounced during the second and third periods, when the demand for specialists clearly exceeded the supply.
If problems with technical specialists of various kinds were and continue to be less acute, then the number of trained content specialists is clearly insufficient; The low quality of the content of most Internet information resources is direct evidence of this.
At the same time, until recently, leading off-line specialists were not very willing to contact online media, which is due to both the lower level of pay in them and the deep-rooted ideas about the Internet as an uninteresting marginal environment. It is also worth noting that often the texts of off-line specialists turned out to be unclaimed by the user, since in order to adequately take into account the requirements of the new information environment, some experience is required.
But the shortage of personnel is even more acute at another level: the first period, characterized by low player activity, did not become a favorable environment for the emergence of a large number of developers capable of generating original ideas, as well as top managers capable of leading the support of large projects. Therefore, a feature characteristic of the second and, even more so, the third period, the period of the “investment boom,” was not only a crisis of secondaryity at the level of content, but also a crisis of secondaryity at the level of personalities. During this time, practically no new big names appeared on the Internet; often new players solved personnel problems by simply buying the same leading specialists from each other. Of course, this is also one of the reasons that most large-scale projects of this period are monotonous and unsuccessful.
9. Forecasts
The immediate consequences of the crisis in the media sector of the Russian Internet may be the following events.
The departure of large Western investors from the media sector, or at least the decline of the “investment boom” (in fact, already observed). As soon as the causes of the crisis (primarily the overestimation of the audience) are realized by potential investors, the media sector will lose its attractiveness for them. The closure of the Pole.Ru portal, the main reason for which was the investor’s conviction that it was impossible to organize at least a payback, if not the profitability of the project, is precisely the first case of this kind. It is safe to assume that it will not remain isolated, which allowed us to consider the date of closure of this project as the formal beginning of the next stage in the development of the media sector of the Russian Internet.
Failures of the main strategies for implementing media resources during the “investment boom” period will inevitably lead to the abandonment of portal owners’ attempts to dominate the media sector. This, however, does not necessarily mean the complete closure of even media projects of this kind - their support (especially compared to off-line resources) on the scale of a large company is relatively cheap, which may allow some of them to continue to exist. In addition, automated “news organizers” are only expensive at the development stage (and this price has already been paid by those who developed them).
Accordingly, the leaders in the media sector will remain publications whose owners are not focused on a quick payback of resources (if only direct payback takes them at all). The list of leaders will remain relatively unchanged, at least until a strategy is proposed that avoids the problems associated with the “secondary crisis” and is more successful than the portal or “news organizer” strategies.
News resources will apparently retain their importance, but the list of leaders here will also remain relatively unchanged. Of course, any resource that can offer a more extensive list of news than what is available (that is, avoiding the “crisis of secondaryity”) will have a good chance of changing this list. The widest opportunities here are available to news agencies and electronic media, but only on the condition that they are interested in entering the market, which involves, albeit less serious than online, but nevertheless significant costs. Moreover, experience shows that justifying ambition requires more complex work than simply copying your own product.
In conditions of fierce competition within news resources and the situation of non-selection described above, an increase in the importance and popularity of commentary resources, primarily of the author's type, is possible.
In general, the situation that has developed after the end of the “investment boom” period will certainly lead to a decrease in activity within the media sector. Most likely, the next surge of activity, as before, will occur during the pre-election period, and on a national scale: within the regions, the Internet still remains largely a marginal medium; only resources focused on information that is significant for the country in in general.
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