The President recognized the President
Russia is on the winning side
The uprising in Yugoslavia ended with the fall of the regime of Slobodan Milosevic. Yesterday, Vojislav Kostunica, who is now believed to have won the September 24 elections, was proclaimed the country's new president. This prompted Moscow to significantly adjust its position, and Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Mr Kostunica on his victory. The fact that Russia actually recognized the opposition leader as the new president of Yugoslavia significantly reduced the danger of civil war in the country.

Yesterday's blitz visit to Belgrade by Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov was Moscow's last chance to maintain its position in Yugoslavia after the democratic opposition came to power. And Russia took advantage of this chance.
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry met with Vojislav Kostunica in the office of the President of Yugoslavia, which in itself was symbolic. However, the main sensation was Igor Ivanov’s statement after negotiations with Mr. Kostunica: “I conveyed greetings from Russian President Vladimir Putin to Vojislav Kostunica and congratulated him on his victory in the presidential elections in Yugoslavia.” Serbian democrats, and the West too, had been waiting for this recognition from Moscow for almost two weeks.
The statement by the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry is of fundamental importance. It means not only a turn in Russia's Balkan policy towards greater realism. This step could seriously affect the development of the crisis in Yugoslavia. The likelihood of a civil war is now significantly reduced, since Moscow's recognition of Mr. Kostunica's victory takes the last trump card out of the hands of ex-President Milosevic: he will not be able to organize a putsch, hiding behind real or imaginary support from Moscow.
Igor Ivanov turned out to be the first foreign politician to personally congratulate the new president of the FRY, and this will certainly help Russia maintain its position in Yugoslavia. There are possibilities for this. If you look at the situation from the point of view of Russian interests, then Mr. Kostunica is the ideal leader of Yugoslavia. He does not intend to ask to join NATO. Wants to have good relations with Russia. I am determined to negotiate a new union with Montenegro, which leaves a chance for the preservation of Yugoslavia—and this is one of the main goals of Russian policy in the Balkans. In addition, because of him, Russia will not have to conflict with the West.
Igor Ivanov immediately reported the results of his negotiations with the new Yugoslav leader to the President of the Russian Federation. And those around Vladimir Putin immediately reported that the president was preparing a new statement on Yugoslavia. It turned out to be much more intelligible compared to the one he made on Friday night immediately upon returning to Moscow from Delhi. If the first statement was in the same vein as all the previous ones (it was unclear which side Moscow was on - Milosevic or the opposition), then yesterday's statement by Vladimir Putin is actually a greeting message to the new president of Yugoslavia.
According to a Kommersant source in the Kremlin, they are now looking into who prepared the material for the first statement and why it turned out to be so toothless. Either the Russian embassy in Belgrade did not quite objectively inform the center about what was happening, or his first deputy, Alexander Avdeev, who remained in the absence of Igor Ivanov “on the farm” at the Foreign Ministry, who met the president who had arrived from India at Sheremetyevo, advised him on something wrong. Otherwise, Igor Ivanov would hardly have mentioned yesterday that the situation became clearer after he was able to obtain first-hand information.
The head of the Russian Foreign Ministry saw with his own eyes that the new leadership of Yugoslavia really enjoys the support of the overwhelming majority of the population. All state media, which two days ago praised Slobodan Milosevic, declared support for the new president of the country - although their leadership had previously changed. The Constitutional Court of the FRY, canceling its yesterday's decision, ruled that Mr. Kostunica won the elections on September 24. But most importantly, the army command announced that it would not interfere in the political crisis. And the leadership of the European Union announced yesterday plans to lift sanctions from Yugoslavia on Monday. This will further strengthen the position of the new government.
The main sensation of yesterday was the meeting of Igor Ivanov with Slobodan Milosevic - it was reported on Yugoslav television. Footage taken at Mr Milosevic's home on Uzečka Street in Belgrade proved that, contrary to speculation, he had not fled the country. According to the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mr. Milosevic plans to continue his political career as the leader of the Yugoslav socialists.

GENNADY SYSOEV

Newspaper "Kommersant" No. 188 dated 07.10.2000, page 1

Authors:

Gennady Sysoev