Vitaly Portnikov. Lithuanian dead end

Lithuanian dead end
Vitaly Portnikov

Date of publication: October 10, 2000

At first glance, the parliamentary elections in Lithuania ended as predicted by political scientists and sociologists, who promised the triumph of the left and the shame of the right. The left, indeed, won the majority of seats in the Sejm . The Conservatives, who were until now the ruling party of Lithuania, turned out to be the last party capable of forming an independent faction in the parliament, and the Christian Democrats allied with them did not enter parliament at all. It's like that. And not like that. Because most of the polls promised victory to the center-left New Union - the party of the country's former prosecutor general Arturas Paulauskas. It was this party, which, however, could hardly count on forming a one-party government, which had to choose a coalition partner after the elections. By the way, such a partner was chosen - the Liberal Union of the former Prime Minister of Lithuania, Mayor of Vilnius Rolandas Paksas .

However, a few weeks before the elections, a powerful leap forward was made by the social democratic coalition led by the former President of Lithuania Algirdas Brazauskas , the core of which was Brazauskas' party - the Democratic Party of Labor of Lithuania (DPTL). And the rating of the New Union has dropped significantly. And as a result, Brazauskas’s Social Democratic coalition will have the largest faction in the Sejm. The balance of power between possible coalition partners also turned out to be far from predicted. The New Union turned out to be second in the number of votes cast on party lists, but the Liberals, slightly behind it, were able to get more candidates into single-mandate constituencies. Tentatively, it will be the Liberal Union of Roland Paksas, and not the New Union of Arturas Paulaskas, that will become the second largest parliamentary group in the new Sejm.

You can imagine the bewilderment of Lithuanian politicians. The party that claimed to be the senior coalition partner becomes the junior partner for both the Social Democrats and the Liberals. At the same time, Paulauskas has few choices. If he agrees to comply with the terms of the previously reached coalition agreement with the liberals, then he will have to get used to the idea that this cabinet can only receive a vote of confidence... with the support of the conservatives Vytautas Landsbergis - the same Landsbergis who just a few weeks ago called him "agent of Moscow"! The approximately nine seats that the Conservative Party will hold will ultimately decide the outcome of the cabinet vote. But in this case, the role of Paulauskas himself is unclear. Rolandas Paksas will obviously be vying for the post of prime minister; Vytautas Landsbergis will demand for his concessions that he retain the portfolio of the chairman of the Seimas. And Paulauskas himself, who lost the presidential election in 1998 to Valdis Adamkus , but by no means abandoned hope for the presidency next time? His reputation will be hopelessly tarnished - the politician, who spoke with slogans of removing conservatives from power, eventually agreed to cooperate with them... In the event of an agreement with Brazauskas' coalition, Paulauskas will also face a difficult situation. The former president of Lithuania did not run for the Seimas, but for a very simple reason - he wants to be prime minister. And support Paulauskas in the election of the Chairman of the Seimas. Brazauskas' supporters argue that this is not a bad position at all for the future, when Paulauskas wants to run for president of Lithuania again. But Paulauskas himself cannot help but understand that if there are two such authoritative politicians as Adamkus and Brazauskas in the country’s political arena, he will simply get lost in the office premises of the Lithuanian parliament...

I am writing in such detail about the political prospects of Arturas Paulauskas not so much to clarify the fate of the former prosecutor general himself, but to illustrate an immutable fact - a disappointed New Union will be a very difficult partner in negotiations on the creation of any coalition. Let's add to this the position of the President of Lithuania. Valdis Adamkus has already gotten used to the idea that his predecessor left the political scene of the republic at the beginning of 1998 and became simply a respected pensioner-memoirist... And suddenly Brazauskas returns, contributes to the excellent performance of his party in the elections to the Sejm and claims to form a new government. But with Brazauskas, a whole cohort of authoritative politicians - veterans of the restoration of Lithuanian independence - is returning to power. Such as the former Prime Minister of the country Kazimiera Prunskienė or the former Chairman of the Sejm Česlovas Juršenas. It is obvious that the presidential administration, taking into account Adamkus’ limited powers under the constitution, will not be easy to compete with such a team and with Brazauskas himself. If Brazauskas appears in the office of the Prime Minister, the country will have, as it were, two presidents - especially since, according to the Lithuanian political tradition, Algirdas Brazauskas is already called “President Brazauskas”... And Adamkus will try to prevent all this...

The "elections without a winner" held in Lithuania promise a rather bizarre configuration of the balance of power in the country's political elite. In any case, the determination of the course of the new government, its economic and foreign policy priorities will have to wait...