Vitaly Portnikov. Milan Djukanovic vs Vojislav Kostunica

Milan Djukanovic vs. Voislava Kostunica
Vitaly Portnikov

Date of publication: October 10, 2000

The euphoria over the unexpectedly easy victory of the Serbian opposition over the regime of Slobodan Milosevic somehow prevents us from taking more seriously the problems that the new Yugoslav president will have to face. Vojislav Kostunica will most likely turn out to be the “Yugoslav Gorbachev” - at least as regards the preservation of the state united with Montenegro. It is no coincidence that he calls the settlement of relations with Montenegro one of his first tasks and has already ordered the lifting of the economic blockade of the republic imposed by the Milosevic regime. The paradox of the current situation is precisely that the problem of Montenegro can hardly be resolved otherwise than by the divorce of Serbia and Montenegro. Like his post-communist predecessor Slobodan Milosevic, Vojislav Kostunica is trying to stop objective historical processes by issuing new laws and orders.

Let's start with the fact that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia is essentially an artificial state. By the time of the collapse of the SFRY, each of the union republics of this state, including Montenegro, had formed its own elite, far in its interests from the elite of Belgrade and Serbia. Slobodan Milosevic understood this well, and therefore, in order to forestall events and not lose in the future the much-needed access to the sea for a warring country, he organized a real revolution in Montenegro, during which the party and state leadership of the republic was overthrown and replaced by Milosevic’s henchmen - President Momir Bulatovic and Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic. However, the elite has not disappeared anywhere! Bulatovich already had to take its interests into account, try to pursue an independent foreign policy, and create his own foreign policy and defense departments. Having defeated Bulatovich in the struggle for power, Milo Djukanovic headed for separation from the FRY. The West supported this course, believing that Montenegrin behavior is a good example for Serbia.

Now the West will not support the secession of Montenegro, at least for some time. But Djukanovic will be concerned about this in much the same way as Ukrainian parliamentarians were in 1991 about the desire of US President George W. Bush not to leave the USSR and to support Gorbachev. The process has begun: unlike the Serbian opposition, the Montenegrin leadership initially did not agree with the new rules for holding presidential elections in the FRY, which, in their opinion, infringed on the interests of the republic. The Montenegrin leadership considered the parliament that adopted these changes to the constitution illegitimate, emphasizing that it did not trust the composition of the parliament itself. In the Assembly of the FRY, Montenegro was represented by the party of Djukanovic’s main opponent, the former Montenegrin president and current Yugoslav Prime Minister Momir Bulatovic. When the powers of the deputies from Montenegro ended, and it was impossible to elect new ones, the powers of the deputies were extended... In the new Assembly, Montenegro is again represented by activists of this particular party, since all other Montenegrin organizations boycotted the presidential and parliamentary elections of the FRY as being held with flagrant violations of the law. But only 23% of registered voters in the republic went to the polls in Montenegro - almost all of them voted for the Socialist People's Party of Momir Bulatovic and presidential candidate Slobodan Milosevic. Nobody supported the Serbian opposition and Vojislav Kostunica in Montenegro.

By the way, Vuk Draskovic, who now looks like a real political bankrupt after the defeat of his party in the parliamentary elections and the disgraceful performance of its candidate in the presidential elections, realized in time the danger that arose for the future of the FRY and tried to link the position of the Montenegrin leadership on boycotting the elections with the position of the Serbian opposition. Nothing succeeded. The Montenegrins were quite interested in the Serbian opposition participating in illegitimate elections, compromising itself in front of that part of the Montenegrin electorate that adheres to democratic positions. The opposition had illusions that after it came to power the problem would be solved by itself. And I miscalculated.

There were no supporters in Montenegro. But there are plenty of supporters of boycotting the elections. After Vojislav Kostunica came to power, Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic, at a meeting with residents of the city of Niksic, noted that for Montenegro the union elections were illegitimate and any union government would be illegitimate. He stated that he considers Vojislav Kostunica not the president of the union state, but exclusively the leader of the democratic forces of Serbia. By the way, the Montenegrin president and other leaders of the republic were not even invited to the inauguration of Vojislav Kostunica in Belgrade...

The head of Kostunica's election campaign, former mayor of Belgrade Zoran Djindjic, arrives in Podgorica to resolve controversial issues. Djindjic is considered a personal friend of Djukanovic. But this time he will have to see how divergent his interests are from the interests of the Montenegrin president.

The Montenegrin elite had a chance to proclaim the independence of their state without a military clash with Serbia. Kostunica is unlikely to send troops to Montenegro to oppose secession if it is supported by a referendum. Montenegrin leaders are now trying hard to convince the population that the FRY no longer exists. In the Montenegrin media this country is referred to exclusively as the “so-called FRY”. In this situation, Kostunica would not have to persuade Djukanovic to change his decision, but rather take power in Serbia. By the way, this is exactly what the Montenegrin president advises him to do. At a meeting in Niksic, Milo Djukanovic noted that the elections demonstrated a new political situation in Serbia and Kostunica should have achieved early parliamentary and presidential elections in this republic.

But the new president of the FRY is unlikely to heed this advice. And he will also not be able to annex Montenegro by force... So he will suffer until the objectively existing political situation helps him recognize Montenegrin independence. Only the President of Serbia by this moment may no longer be Milosevic’s frightened comrade-in-arms, Milan Milutinovic, but another person who is not going to share power with the president of a virtually non-existent Yugoslavia...