Vitaly Portnikov. Perpetual NATO for Central Europe

Perpetual NATO for Central Europe
Vitaly Portnikov

Date of publication: October 16, 2000

NATO Secretary General George Robertson, who met in Sofia with the defense ministers of 9 countries seeking to join the Alliance in the future, announced the indefinite nature of the alliance's expansion. “The doors are always open for you,” the Secretary General told the defense ministers of Bulgaria, Slovenia, Macedonia, Romania, Albania, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Slovakia. How realistic is this statement, and can the countries that sent their representatives to Sofia count on joining the alliance in the near future?

1. Slovenia

Slovenia is considered one of the countries best prepared for NATO membership. Its leadership applied to join the alliance at the Madrid summit of the alliance, when Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary joined NATO. The then Prime Minister of Slovenia, Janez Drnovšek, held a special press conference at which he announced a mistake made by the alliance. Slovenia had allies in NATO. However, according to behind-the-scenes information, the United States opposed its entry into the union. Now, with the death of Croatian President Franjo Tudjman and the removal of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic, Slovenia, already eager to avoid being associated with the Balkans, is finally leaving the potential conflict zone. And, moreover, it is the most likely candidate for joining the European Union. However, the military infrastructure of Slovenia will raise serious doubts: this small country can hardly be considered a serious participant in the military organization of the alliance.

2. Bulgaria

Bulgaria is also one of the countries that can count on NATO's priority attention - primarily due to its geopolitical position. By accepting Bulgaria, NATO strengthens its already powerful positions in the Black Sea and the Balkans, while Bulgaria does not have common borders with Russia and therefore Moscow’s claims regarding its admission can be exclusively of a historical and moral nature. However, NATO will not rush to accept Bulgaria, if only because there is so far no consensus on joining the union within the Bulgarian political elite itself. Unlike Polish Social Democrats, who agree with the right on the need to join NATO, Bulgarian socialists are much more cautious about NATO. NATO, rather, will promote the consolidation of Bulgarian society around the Euro-Atlantic idea and then make the final decisions.

3. Romania

Romania is another country considered a priority candidate for NATO membership. If only because the European Union is an unattainable goal for Romania today, its entry into the union would fix the “Western” position of this country. In addition, Romania has a fairly developed military infrastructure and an advantageous geographical location. However, Russia's reaction to Romania's accession to NATO could be very lively, since Romania directly borders two CIS countries - Moldova and Ukraine. Romania's entry into NATO will force Moscow to take a completely different look at the situation in Transnistria and try to turn this territory into an eternal springboard for the Russian military presence at the borders of the Euro-Atlantic alliance. We should also not forget about the impending change of power in Romania: the Romanian left may turn out to be more cautious supporters of the Euro-Atlantic idea.

4. Macedonia

The current government of Macedonia considers joining NATO one of the main goals of its foreign policy. Even today, the stability of the situation in Macedonia is largely ensured by the efforts of the alliance. However, there are a number of obstacles to Macedonia's accession to NATO. Firstly, Macedonia does not look like a stable state in economic terms. Secondly, the current state of the Macedonian army does not meet the criteria of the alliance. Thirdly, the possibility of Macedonia's admission largely depends on the development of the situation in neighboring Yugoslavia and Kosovo. Fourthly, the Macedonian Social Democrats, who were recently in power and are capable of returning to it again, are by no means supporters of the alliance. Fifthly, it is much more profitable for NATO to patronize Macedonia than to turn it into an equal partner.

5. Slovakia

Slovakia's entry into NATO is inevitable. Moreover, this country would have been accepted into NATO along with neighboring Czech Republic and Hungary, if not for the position of the then government of Vladimir Meciar. Mečiar even managed to hold a referendum, the majority of the participants opposed joining the alliance. However, since that moment the political situation has changed, the opposition came to power, advocating the Euro-Atlantic choice of the country. The most important thing is that public priorities have changed. Now, even if Meciar returns to power, he will be forced to take this into account. However, Meciar's return could once again delay Slovakia's entry into NATO. Most likely, before making a final decision, NATO will monitor the development of the political situation in Slovakia for several more years.

6. Albania

The West already controls the economic situation in Albania to such an extent that it can hardly fear the emergence of a force capable of opposing Albania’s Euro-Atlantic choice. However, Albanian society itself hardly meets Euro-Atlantic standards. Therefore, as in the case of Macedonia, NATO will act as a “guardian” of Albania, without seeking to turn the poorest country in Europe into an alliance partner. The West may be frightened by the instability of Albanian society, the possibility of situations arising beyond the control of the authorities, as was the case in 1997 during the revolt of investors in bankrupt financial “pyramids”, the radicalism of individual Albanian politicians, the desire of Tirana to influence the development of the situation in Kosovo even when this is contrary to interests West.

7-9. Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia

The admission of the Baltic countries into NATO depends primarily on the development of relations between NATO and Russia. Although the Baltic countries themselves do not consider themselves to be part of the Soviet Union, for Russia the entry of these countries into NATO is an obvious invasion of the alliance into post-Soviet territory. At the meeting in Sofia, George Robertson once again emphasized that relations with Russia are very important for the alliance. Nevertheless, NATO respects the desire of the Baltic countries to join the alliance and will continue to include them among the applicant states even when it is obvious that the accession of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to NATO could significantly worsen relations with Moscow. By the way, it must be taken into account that such an entry can be accelerated and carried out as a demonstrative act in the event that Russia insists on its special role in the post-Soviet space, without being able to prove that it actually plays this role...

About the differences in the positions of the Baltic countries. Estonia is unlikely to insist on the priority of joining NATO. For this country, the priority is joining the EU. Lithuania will be an ardent supporter of joining NATO, for which today this is the main opportunity to secure its “Western status.” However, Lithuania’s entry into NATO is very problematic simply because in this case the Kaliningrad region of Russia will be inside the alliance and Moscow will do everything possible to prevent this. In practice, Latvia will take a wait-and-see position, most likely giving Lithuania the opportunity to be the first to go through the entire difficult path of resolving the positions of NATO and Russia, building a new model of relations with Moscow and fighting for the final decision of the alliance... If Lithuania can overcome these difficulties, Latvia will join it at the stage of making the final decision and will provide effective moral support at the previous stages.