Mikhail Kornilov. Strange games with common sense

Strange games with common sense
Mikhail Kornilov

Date of publication: October 23, 2000

They are again trying to convince us of the strange, and we, in general, are not used to this. But this time it becomes somehow completely offensive - you can take everyone for fools, but not to the same extent, at some point you have to stop and think: “Maybe they can’t eat all kinds of bullshit? Maybe there is some "Is there a limit?" But still they continue to act as if our lack of common sense and stupid gullibility are limitless and inescapable. Of course, the reader has the right to wonder - who are these “they”? This is exactly what I propose to look into.

Since last winter, we have had the opportunity to watch the rich cry too. No, not in the TV series, in life! Nobody will argue with the statement that, compared to us, residents of Western countries are real rich? So they cry with terrible force. And not just like that, but for petroleum products - they say they have become very expensive, it’s simply unthinkable. And so, so that they don’t cry, specially trained diplomats go to OPEC (this is an organization that controls oil production - it would be awkward to keep oil from being cheaper than water) and say that the tap should be slightly unscrewed so that there is more oil on the market. They have such a law on the market that if there is more of a product, then its price immediately becomes lower, something like the law of conservation of matter, only about money. So, these same diplomats persuaded the guys from OPEC - they specially studied for this, to persuade and negotiate, so it’s not surprising - and then it began! The price immediately fell - and it doesn’t matter who sells oil - they rushed to conclude contracts at the end of the year that they would supply oil and gasoline cheaper than beer in Bavaria, in general - a paradise for car owners and truckers! And not even a month has passed before the price of oil slowly, little by little begins to push up and... rises to its previous level! Complete end of lunch!

Everyone, of course, is making noise - how can this not be, but what about the Laws of the Market? But the market has nothing to do with them - the price is rising, and the obligations have already been taken, and there is still no oil to fulfill them... I should stop here and think, maybe not - the scheme has already been worked out, diplomats for cars - and in OPEC! Again, okay - the rich are crying, turn off the faucet, otherwise there will be problems, and not only for us... They talked again, again the price fell, again the market is in the law, in the sense of an almost legal field. Or not, the legal field is about something else, here are Economic Laws, although, they say, all this is somehow connected, but we’ll try to understand this another time, now we need to talk about oil, this will be more important.

So, less than a week has passed, the price has fallen - it’s being squeezed out again! Again, diplomats in OPEC, speak the cherished words, and off they go - fell, did push-ups, fell, did push-ups, but what can you do, the training takes its toll - each time it falls less and less, but rises more, despite the Laws of the Market. There, overseas, they have already taken extreme measures : the strategic reserve has been opened ! This hasn't happened for many years! Direct threat to national security! Winter is coming, then all over the United States the rich will start crying (there is no need to talk about the poor, they are trained there about rights - they will immediately go smash windows and burn cars in order to support their native automobile industry), and also elections are on the horizon for Gore and Bush!.. We need to do something urgently! And of course, they are increasing their diplomatic influence on OPEC. And those, too, have somehow become accustomed to it - the previous arguments somehow don’t work, they say: “Enough is enough for you, try to reduce prices on the domestic market reduce your taxes, instead of demanding lower prices from us!” And it’s difficult to argue, because for a US citizen or a Western European it is obvious that the Arabs and Latinos should uninterruptedly supply him with their goods at preferential prices, and a Colombian or a resident of Kuwait in this It's hard to convince - they don't understand that the principles of free competition are not for everyone, but only for the world community. The States, however, managed to find some relief for themselves here too. Where, you ask? You won't believe it, in the Persian Gulf! Remember, they dealt with Hussein there , They defended Kuwait and organized a blockade of Iraq for this purpose? So now their Navy patrols the gulf, catches tankers and carefully studies the oil - is it smuggling from Iraq? And very often such contraband is found, confiscated, and immediately sent to their oil refineries and - on sale at reduced prices. But what, they can afford it, the costs of “production” are minimal, and the profit from the confiscation goes to the treasury, presumably, to strengthen the Navy, after all, no one has such an aircraft carrier or something like that The missile cruiser extracted oil for the benefit of the nation.

But we won’t get too excited about these wonderful devices either; Moreover, there are numerous examples of similar phenomena in history: a strait was even named after the great English gold miner Drake; True, he mined gold at sea not only in the civil service, but this is a profitable business - the US admirals still have everything ahead of them, and there is someone to follow by example. We will now try to understand the already mentioned market phenomenon, because, indeed, there is a discrepancy, if the laws of the market do not work for them, then how can we, the poor, enter the market - what awaits us in this case?

And sneaking like this, a thought begins to tiptoe into consciousness, bordering on heresy and therefore greeted with some caution: “Or maybe these very Laws of the Market do work after all? They just - well, you never know? - they interpret events for us (sorry for the expression) is not entirely correct? Yes, of course, they will answer me, because all sorts of specialists, experts there are singing war songs about the next crisis in the Middle East, about the approaching winter, about sharply increased needs - but all this somehow looks frivolous in front of one simple question in full accordance with the laws market. Guys, if there is more goods, but the price does not fall, then maybe money has become cheaper ? Yes, yes, the ones that are “always a hundred dollars”? A?

Of course, the idea is crazy. With the instability of the dollar, the world becomes unstable. The foundations of the Universe are crumbling. A catastrophe is approaching, comparable to the end of the world. But on the other hand - why, exactly? Or is His Majesty the US Dollar not a currency? Or is he immune from trouble? Or is it secured by at least some highly liquid collateral? Let's see... The dollar is certainly a currency, it's hard to argue, so we won't. He is not immune from troubles, and there are many examples of this - downfalls, ups, and whatnot... So this is also true. But as far as security is concerned, it’s somehow complicated. And not without tricks, in which the owners of this hard currency are clearly skilled. For many decades in a row, dollar inflation was exported from the country somewhere, as far away as possible, that is, to a place from where it will not return. At first, these were third world countries, with which everything was simple: you give us goods, we give you dollars, because your currency is depreciating - but with us everything is reliable. And in that “third market” the dollar begins to circulate on a par with the national currency. And according to the law of that same market, the national currency begins to “float”, because the market’s needs for currency are determined by the quantity of goods, and the commodity and money supply must be in some correspondence. If, due to the influx of foreign currency, this correspondence is violated, then a fall in the exchange rate of the national currency is almost guaranteed due to greater confidence in foreign currency. But! Thus, one can seriously argue that by exporting inflation abroad, the States provoke a sharp increase in inflation in the country where they export it. But the provoked inflation of the national currency leads to a loss of confidence in it and automatically increases confidence in the Dollar, that is, increases the demand for it, which, in turn, changes the exchange rate ratio in favor of the dollar, which again creates favorable conditions for further import of the dollar. As a result, dollar inflation in the United States is maintained at a relatively low level, which again increases confidence in it... Therefore, we can rightfully say that the only security for the dollar is confidence in it. Don't you think that someone has already gone through something similar? It’s just not clear why some three letters are better than others? Why is the USA better than MMM? That's right, the scope of the advertising campaign and the percentage of income. Mavrodi, like that eagle, decided to immediately drink blood, although he knew that he would not live long, and the raven, as we remember, lives for a long time because it has a specific diet. If MMM had not promised Lena Golubkov a house in Paris, he would have lasted longer... But this is not our way - without breadth, without courage, without daring. People overseas will be more pragmatic - they have found a vein, and they are developing it little by little so that there will be enough for their grandchildren.

But everything comes to an end, including gold mines. Slowly and sadly we have approached the turning point of this whole story, which is the crisis of overproduction. If, during a crisis of food overproduction, sugar was drowned in the sea and hams were burned in ovens in order to maintain prices, then what to do with the overproduced currency? Well, they took it out. Well, they took me out again. They set up an export system - they held on for longer. And now someone has crept up and says: “Ku-ku, we’ve arrived, there’s nowhere else to take them out! Welcome to you, dears!” By the way, if you can’t take everything out, there will be a surplus . This year it has arrived in the States, and they are formally happy about it. Nobody says out loud that too much money is good for a private individual, but for the state it is... not so good. But face must be saved.

Now let’s remember what money is. Well, in the sense of paper money, with numbers and portraits of great people? That's right, these are government financial obligations . And it is customary to fulfill these obligations. And the one who does not comply is... Well, in general, this is not good. The inability to fulfill obligations is called bankruptcy, and the government's refusal to fulfill them is called default . But this is true, by the way, and now rather, rather, back to the issue of saving face.

The fact that the US government, as well as the majority of the population of this country, does not care at all about other people’s misfortunes that do not bring them dividends, does not require either proof or additional illustrations. Now let’s imagine that all of the above has some basis. What then should we expect from this very government? The most logical would be default, that is, refusal to recognize extra dollars as legal. But before that, take as much money out of the country as possible, and prevent its import back in every possible way. Is it this impediment to import that lies the mystery of the BONY scandal? Which Bank of New York? They didn’t find any crime, but were you unhappy with something? Perhaps, after all, the very fact of importing dollars into the USA? Can't believe it? But what then to do with the decision of the US Senate, which assigned to it, the Senate, the right to decide on the “legality” of money (dollars) located both in certain accounts and in certain territories? Komsomolskaya Pravda, publishing an article about this decision, joked and titled it “The USA is ready for default!” Every joke, you know, has a grain of humor, and the rest...

And oil, which is typical, is becoming more and more expensive. Or are they buying it for future use? And who exactly are they ?