Vitaly Portnikov. Summit for Kostunica

Summit for Kostunica
Vitaly Portnikov

Date of publication: October 25, 2000

Yugoslavia's new president this week will become the first of the country's leaders to attend an inter-Balkan summit. Before the upcoming summit in the Macedonian capital Skopje, one could say that Yugoslavia was practically isolated from what was happening in the region. Only the President of Montenegro, Milo Djukanovic, could afford to meet with several regional leaders at once, communicating either with the presidents of Croatia and Slovenia, or with the leaders of Macedonia and Albania. The Yugoslav or Serbian presidents could, at best, be content with bilateral contact, rather forced: the Balkan countries, which had signed a special regional pact with the West, did not seek to communicate with Belgrade, realizing that this would immediately turn them into outsiders in terms of receiving Western assistance.

But now everything is different. Vojislav Kostunica is received in the West, and the leaders of the Balkan countries can also afford to meet with the leader of a state whose economy significantly influenced their development - of course, in the days “before Milosevic.” This is especially true for the former Yugoslav republics. The economy of Macedonia was generally tied to Yugoslavia. The country's post-communist leadership, after declaring its independence, turned Macedonia into a "free zone" for sanctioned Yugoslavia. At first, the West was very loyal to this model of maintaining the living standards of the Macedonians, but with the deterioration of relations with Belgrade, it posed the question bluntly: either Macedonia joins the sanctions against the FRY, or it cannot count on Western support. The Macedonian leadership, reluctantly, closed the border, realizing that it was clearing the way to power for the anti-Serbian opposition - the VMRO-DPMNE party and its allies. The new Macedonian government was among the West's most loyal allies during the Kosovo operation. However, despite all this, Macedonia continues to suffer huge economic losses due to the lack of economic ties with the FRY. So it is very important for the host of the summit, Boris Trajkovski, to establish normal relations with the guest from Belgrade. The same can be said for leadership. Bosnia and Herzegovina . Vojislav Kostunica has already taken the unprecedented step of meeting with members of the republic's collective leadership at the airport in its divided capital Sarajevo. If Belgrade pursues a loyal policy towards Bosnia, there is a chance that this state, which until now existed exclusively thanks to the West, will be able to survive and establish good neighborly relations with Serbia, which means that the Bosnian Serbs will become participants in state building of their own free will, and not out of necessity.

Finally, Croatia . The situation here is special. President Stipe Mesic avoided participating in the summit, citing an important visit to Germany - although this visit begins the day after the Balkan meeting. But it is very important for the Croatian leadership to establish relations with Belgrade exclusively on a bilateral basis. This was the case during the years of the existence of the SFRY, when Croatia and Serbia tried to solve the main problems without the participation of other Yugoslav republics, perceiving themselves as the main players in a single power. This was the case during the years of the collapse of the SFRY, when Slobodan Milosevic and Franjo Tudjman, two irreconcilable opponents, easily found a common language and the conversation was about the situation in the region and the fate of neighboring countries - just not Croatia or Serbia... And, apparently, so it will be now. The Croatian and Serbian elites are similar in that they perceive themselves as the “leading” elites of the Balkans - at least of the post-Yugoslav space. And Stipe Mesic does not necessarily need to meet with Vojislav Kostunica as part of a multilateral summit. Moreover, the Croatian-Yugoslav summit meeting has already been scheduled for November. By this time, it will be clear how real the power of Kostunica himself is, what the model of relations between Serbia and Montenegro will be, and whether the opposition will be able to destroy the financial and industrial empire of the overthrown dictator.

Another country with which relations with Yugoslavia will not develop easily is Albania . President Recep Meydani even refused to come to Skopje when he learned that the guest of the Balkan summit would be the President of Yugoslavia. However, at the last moment he was persuaded. In any case, Belgrade and Tirana still have different ideas about the future of Kosovo. Kostunica took the first step: he actually recognized the genocide of the Kosovo Albanians, which had long been denied by Yugoslav official (and after it Russian) propaganda. However, it is unlikely that the President of Yugoslavia today will dare to admit that Kosovo should become an independent state. Nevertheless, Albania’s response could be to refuse to speed up the process of declaring Kosovo’s independence. The fact that this territory will never again be part of Serbia is clear to any realistically thinking politician - I think not only Kostunica, but also Milosevic understands this well. However, in order for Serbian public opinion, poisoned by decades of chauvinistic propaganda, to come to terms with this idea, a long transition period is needed, during which Kosovo could have a status comparable, for example, to the status of the Palestinian Authority. In short, like Jews and Arabs, Serbs and Albanians today do not need peace, but a peace process...

For the leaders of Romania and Bulgaria , also participating in the summit, getting to know Kostunica is important primarily from an economic point of view. These countries, which had very strong ties with Yugoslavia, have practically lost its market and, of course, would like to return to it. For Belgrade, Bulgaria and Romania are also important because in socialist times the Yugoslav brand was synonymous with quality and the economy of the FRY can begin to emerge from a period of stagnation, first of all reminding neighboring countries of itself. And, of course, stabilizing political relations with Belgrade is also important for the leaders of these countries from a domestic political point of view. For example, during the NATO operation in Kosovo, the majority of Bulgarians reacted extremely negatively to it, while the country's government was one of the most active allies of the alliance. However, now, hugging Kostunica, Bulgarian President Petr Stoyanov will demonstrate that it was not a struggle with the Serbian people, but with the Milosevic regime - a struggle in which the Serbian people emerged victorious, not least thanks to the support of their neighbors...

The only summit participant that is a member of NATO and the European Union is Greece . It is difficult to say whether this country is taking advantage of its opportunity to become a regional power. Nevertheless, Greece is closer than ever to the role of the leading state in the Balkans. One of the poorest countries in the European Union, Greece is today the richest country in the region. Greece remained loyal to Yugoslavia even in the most critical times and today can play the role of a mediator in Belgrade’s relations with European and Euro-Atlantic structures. The economic opportunities for Greece in the region are also great, and, it must be said, this country prepared for the emerging situation in advance, having started active expansion into the Macedonian and Bulgarian markets last year... In addition, we must not forget that Greece is the only EU country , who really understands what a “market economy in the Balkan style” is...