"We are not optimistic in the long term"
The Russian economy is too dependent on oil prices, which cannot but alarm foreign investors. David Aserkoff, strategic analyst for European emerging markets at Credit Suisse First Boston, stated this in an interview with Kommersant correspondent SEVASTIAN KOZITSYN.

— What caused the collapse of the Russian stock market last week?
— The majority of foreign investors began to sell off Russian shares under the influence of the collapse in the Turkish stock market. True, it looked more like panic, because the fundamental indicators of Russian companies, whose shares have fallen significantly in price, are still stable.
— How quickly will the market recover?
— After the International Monetary Fund decided on Tuesday to provide Turkey with a $10 billion loan to resolve the financial crisis, many non-residents again decided to invest in Russian securities. Now the whole question is in timing.
— And what are the sentiments of foreign investors regarding the Russian stock market?
“In the coming days, he will restore the positions lost over the month.” And next year, we expect the RTS index to reach 400-450 points. However, in the longer term, unlike other players, we are not optimistic. The Russian economy is too dependent on world oil prices. While they fluctuate around $30 per barrel, the situation does not inspire concern. But prices may fall in the future. And then the market may decline again.
— Besides high oil prices, are there any other favorable factors for our economy?
“You can’t say that they don’t exist.” Reforms continue and tax legislation is improved. But there is a lot to worry about. For example, the level of corporate culture of Russian companies. For example, their management does not always take into account the interests of small shareholders at the proper level. Proof of this is the completely unacceptable course of restructuring of such companies as RAO UES of Russia, Norilsk Nickel and Rostelecom.
— What needs to be done to correct this situation?
— The government should propose a number of initiatives. However, protecting the rights of investors should be in the blood of company management. And the heads of corporations, on the contrary, prefer to lobby their interests first...
— How do you feel about the accusations of Russian brokers against non-resident players who allegedly manipulate the Russian market with the help of large amounts of funds from their parent companies?
— In the market, every player is looking for an opportunity to make money. Therefore, you cannot blame brokers who make money on the ups and downs of quotes. Of course, this is a speculative game. But strategic investors in Russia are in no hurry yet.
— How do you look at the possibility of paying off part of the Russian Federation’s debts to Germany with Russian shares? In this case, our securities will become strategic investments for German investors?
- For now, this is just a guess. If we assess the situation realistically, then in order to implement such a transaction, a lot of problems need to be solved. It is necessary to determine the price of the shares, settle all issues with investors, etc. Most likely, these proposals will remain on paper.

Newspaper "Kommersant" No. 230 dated December 7, 2000, page 8