| The “Pyongyang recluse” comes to Russia Kim Jong Il, the “respected leader” of the DPRK, will finally arrive in the Russian capital. Let us recall that the Russian President personally invited him during a meeting last summer in Pyongyang, when the leaders of neighboring countries met and even, as knowledgeable people say, developed sympathy for each other.
There were a lot of rumors surrounding Kim Jong Il’s return visit to Russia: almost every month there were sensational reports that he was “just about to come.” The reason for the increased, and on the part of the South Koreans and Japanese, simply morbid interest, is obviously the special secrecy of the North Koreans. Kim's visits abroad have so far taken place in an atmosphere of extreme secrecy, often becoming known about them after the fact.
Besides China, which is still linked to the DPRK by an alliance treaty, Russia is the second country that the “commander” has officially visited since coming to power in 1994. And if in the 90s, democratic Russia was considered in North Korea, if not an enemy, then a “dangerous neighbor,” the current visit emphasizes that times have changed. Russia helped the DPRK overcome diplomatic isolation, concluded a new agreement with Pyongyang, and supports its desire to take its place in the new world order that emerged after the Cold War.
The leader of the DPRK will arrive in Moscow for the first time since 1986, when his father Kim Il Sung flew here (and in 1984, the “great leader” traveled all over Russia by train - obviously, this fact also influenced his son’s choice of route). Our “post-reform” country will obviously make a deep impression on the leader of one of the few remaining “true communist” countries - although it is not yet clear what kind.
There is no doubt, however, that a demonstration of friendship with Russia will strengthen the DPRK’s position in the difficult bargaining with Washington, which has become more complicated after George Bush came to power. The normal course of the American-North Korean dialogue and the dialogue between North and South Korea, which depends on it, is very important for us. Only in this case can the myth of the “North Korean missile threat” - one of the main pretexts for US national missile defense - be dispelled. Only in this case will there be minimal chances of implementing the project of creating a transport corridor connecting the South and North of the Korean Peninsula with the Trans-Siberian Railway and Europe, in which Russia is very interested.
Obviously, the “railway project” will become one of the central ones at the negotiations in Moscow. Reconstruction of the railway in the DPRK by Russian specialists will only make sense if there are guarantees of connecting the routes of the North and the South and transit cargo flow. An “impulse” is needed from above in order for these projects to move closer to the implementation stage, although much, of course, will depend on the position of South Korea. And its allies in Washington are unlikely to be delighted with the strengthening of the positions of Russia and China on the peninsula if inter-Korean transit is established.
The North Koreans expect economic and technical assistance from Russia, in particular, in the reconstruction and modernization of facilities built at one time with Soviet help. For the DPRK, which is suffocating in the grip of the energy crisis, it is especially important to restore the functionality of power plants, in particular in Pyongyang. Russia has the technical capabilities for this, but finances are tight. In February in Seoul, Vladimir Putin proposed that the South Koreans join forces - Russia could carry out the necessary work to offset its debt to Seoul. The wary South Koreans, however, asked for Pyongyang's agreement to the scheme.
It is also no secret that for the North Korean army, equipped with Soviet weapons, which were pretty worn out after the curtailment of military-technical cooperation in the early 90s, it would not be out of place to “renew” the material and technical base with Russian help. Obviously, in the interests of maintaining a military balance - and therefore stability - on the peninsula, this would be worth thinking about. Of course, if you have the appropriate financial capabilities.
The next Russian-Korean summit will be a significant contribution of Russia to the Korean settlement. Seoul is confident that without a visit to Russia, the long-awaited arrival of Kim Jong Il to Seoul will not take place. If Russia can help resume dialogue between North and South, as well as eliminate irritants in North Korea’s relations with the West, we will greatly benefit geopolitically, and in the future, if multilateral cooperation is established in Northeast Asia, also economically. Egor DAVYDOV |
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