| Lukashenko scares Russia with his political death Alexander Lukashenko used yesterday's meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union of Russia and Belarus to express his dissatisfaction with the pace of integration to his Moscow partners. Stating that “the time has come to dot all the i’s,” the president noted “unfavorable trends in Russian-Belarusian rapprochement” and even some “steps back.” At the same time, the course of rapprochement with Russia is “inevitable” for the Belarusian leader, and retreat would mean “political death.”
Alexander Lukashenko, who often grumbles about the “inhibition of integration by the Russian leadership” at home, for the first time allowed himself such tirades “on the road.” The situation of Belarus is such that refusing integration is truly impossible for it. As soon as Moscow introduces real checkpoints at customs borders and raises energy prices to world levels, Minsk will find itself on the brink of an abyss. Russia has already demonstrated its capabilities by introducing customs inspections for cargo from third countries passing through Belarus.
“Lukashenko mercilessly exploited the integration idea and used it to extract money from his eastern neighbor. Now Russia is learning to count money. And this causes panic in Lukashenko,” said Nikolai Statkevich, leader of the Belarusian Social Democratic Party, which is in opposition to the president.
Even official Minsk agrees that the economy is in a deep crisis, and it is impossible to overcome it without external investment. And external means Russian, because the rich West never recognized the victory of the “father” in the recent elections. “Russia for him is the only political roof, he can only go there,” says ex-candidate for the post of President of Belarus, leader of local liberal democrats Sergei Gaidukevich. - Now it is clearly emerging that the priority for Russia is no longer Belarus, but Ukraine. This really scares Lukashenko.”
On the other hand, Lukashenko’s growing dissatisfaction with “unfavorable trends” reflects precisely the fact that integration is indeed becoming a reality. That is, it is moving from the stage of endless political statements that have been made for at least five years to the economic plane. And this inevitably means the gradual absorption of Belarus by Russia, if only because of the incomparable potentials of the two countries.
Lukashenko has already forgotten about his ambitions of the Yeltsin era, when he seriously hoped to become the head of a united Belarusian-Russian state. In the Putin era, the Belarusian president is concerned about how not to lose influence in his own country. Hence the fierce bargaining for every line in the new union agreements, disputes over projects for the corporatization of Belarusian enterprises. And hints that in the event of the “political death” of the current partner, Russia will no longer find an equally loyal replacement in Minsk.
Moscow partly agrees with this. At least during the last election campaign, the Kremlin did not find a worthy alternative in the neighboring country and instead relied on Lukashenko. It is clear, however, that integration will follow the Russian scenario. And after 2005, when, as Minister of Economic Development and Trade German Gref said yesterday, the two countries will switch to a single currency - the ruble, it will no longer matter whether the main Belarusian integrator is “politically alive” or “politically dead”. Yuri ANDREEV, Minsk, Fedor LUKYANOV |
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