| The beginning of spring has excited the stock market Trading in shares of Russian companies picked up noticeably on Friday. On both Russian and Western trading floors, with a general increase in quotations, trading volumes in Russian securities increased significantly. Players in the Russian trading system finally managed to overcome the psychologically important mark of 300 points on the RTS index. By the close of the trading session, the index increased by 5.06%, reaching 305.47 points. At the same time, the trading volume - $28.97 million - more than doubled its average value in February ($13.77 million). Players are eager to continue, and analysts warn: external factors are rather negative, and one should not count on significant support from Western investors.
The securities were also sorted on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange (MICEX), where mainly small Russian speculators trade. The revs also jumped noticeably here. If the average daily trading volume in February was $125.9 million, then on Friday 185.97 million worth of transactions were concluded in shares. The composite stock index of this exchange, however, grew by only 2.81%, but the MICEX index 10 strengthened by 5.64%.
Traders explain the growth by the improvement in global oil market conditions and the unexpected emergence of Western demand for Russian oil securities - shares of Sibneft, YUKOS and LUKOIL. At the end of the day, they grew by 10%, 6.7% and 4.3%, respectively. Other issuers were also popular. Another market favorite was Gazprom. The price of its shares on the St. Petersburg stock exchange jumped by 7.65%, and the price of Gazprom ADR on the Frankfurt stock exchange rose by 8.7% on Friday. The market was apparently influenced by a small article published on Friday in The Financial Times, which cited the opinion of the head of the working group on liberalization of the Gazprom share market, first deputy head of the Kremlin administration Dmitry Medvedev, that the first stage of liberalization will be completed “soon” , possibly before the AGM in June.” Boris Fedorov, a member of the concern's board of directors, said on Friday that investors expect government decisions on the start of liberalization in the coming days. “I cannot speak about this with confidence, but there is information that this could happen as early as early March,” Interfax quotes Mr. Fedorov.
Today, Russian securities may continue to rise following the optimistic “closing” of Western exchanges on Friday. Americans appreciated the positive macroeconomic news about the growth of business activity: the Dow Jones index grew by 2.6%, NASDAQ by 4.1%. The English FTSE increased by 1.33%, the French CAC 40 by 0.52%, and the German DAX by 1.16%.
According to traders, the market will soon begin to calm down, but they do not expect a strong downward correction. “Now there is every chance to maintain the achieved level,” says Egor Korotkov from Trinfico Investment Company, “although there will most likely not be an aggressive rally.” But the asset manager of the Financial Analyst Investment Company, Sergei Belov, believes that now “we can expect a serious increase in the medium term.” Analysts are in no hurry to draw conclusions. “This is a local surge,” says Konstantin Chernyshev from IBG NIKoil. “There have been no fundamental changes; the situation remains unstable.” In his opinion, one should not count on a large influx of Western money, which many experts never tire of talking about. “These are very optimistic statements,” Mr. Chernyshev believes. Elena MYAZINA |
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