| Changing Taiwan seeks rapprochement with Russia "Visit Taiwan - the last frontier of the Cold War" - such a slogan may well appear in the future in travel agencies offering travel to East Asia. This idea was expressed a few days ago by Taiwanese leader Chen Shui-bian during a visit to the Kinmen Islands, located a few kilometers off the coast of mainland China. Recalling the events of 1958, when mainland artillery fired 470 thousand shells at Kinmen, Chen Shui-bian said that these places are quite capable of attracting tourists and helping people “remember the lessons of history and reflect on the horrors of war” no worse than the Berlin Wall or the Panmunjom observation post in the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas.
The Taiwan problem is one of the few that has remained virtually unchanged since the end of the Cold War era. For half a century, Beijing has insisted that the island, which is an integral part of China, must put an end to its “separatist” aspirations and return to the fold of its homeland. Experts believe that China, fearing an international boycott of the Beijing Olympics, will not use weapons until 2008. On the other hand, rumors are spreading on the mainland that growing internal tensions in the PRC could provoke military action as early as 2005. Senior experts in Taipei hope Washington will not abandon Taiwan to its fate. According to them, the annexation of the island to the mainland on Beijing’s terms will help China make a leap toward becoming an oceanic superpower and will provoke the rearmament of Japan. And this will deal a crushing blow to the regional security system carefully built by the Americans.
The peaceful change of political power that took place on the island in 2000-2001 led to the fact that Taiwan and the Kuomintang no longer form a single whole - the once inviolable state-party link was torn. Following this, the cultural and ideological foundations of the phantom “Republic of China”, brought to Taiwan by the Kuomintang who fled from the communists in the late 1940s, began to erode. Although about half of Taiwanese people still identify with this state entity, the people are rapidly losing the “all-China” sense of self-perception that was maintained during the time of Chiang Kai-shek. The new political elite speaks without any approval of the Kuomintang as an external force that has imposed on the island an alien government, laws, army, flag and ideas that have nothing to do with the Taiwanese nation. New trends are creating tension in relations between the top and officials, raised in the spirit of devotion to the Kuomintang - every now and then one can hear complaints about the hidden disobedience of the apparatchiks, friction, and the outflow of experienced professionals.
And the former boasts about the economic superiority of the island over the mainland are almost unheard of. Although the local economy remains strong (annual GDP approaches $300 billion), China continues to experience unprecedented economic growth. Taipei experts admit that in the coming years the standard of living on the island and in the coastal regions of China will practically level out. From now on, Taiwan's advantage over the mainland in the field of democratization and free elections comes to the fore. According to official statistics, 70% of the population supports the idea of unification with democratic China, while only 40% accept the possibility of Taiwan merging with rich China.
Over the past decade, relations between Taiwan and Russia have gone through stages of euphoria and disappointment. Taipei’s hopes for a “diplomatic breakthrough” and Moscow’s hopes for a “golden shower” of Taiwanese investments are a thing of the past. Taiwanese experts say that in the remaining two years of his presidency, Chen Shui-bian is going to start establishing new pragmatic relations with Russia, the implementation of which will be entrusted not to bureaucratic structures, but to the business and public circles of the island. Taiwanese businessmen, who habitually explain their reluctance to invest in Russia by saying that it is too far away and that its residents do not speak Chinese, suddenly noticed that the Russian economy began to rise from its knees. Although bilateral trade did fall markedly last year, Taiwan's exports to Russia rose by a record 41%, even as Taiwan's exports fell by 17.1% globally.
It is expected that the first steps towards intensifying cooperation may follow in the coming months. In July-August, the Taiwan External Trade Development Council (CETRA) is going to create a special association that will develop the markets of Central and Eastern Europe, including Russia. And the decade-long epic with the opening of direct flights between Moscow and Taipei has received a second wind. Tired of waiting for Russia to solve the tax problem, Taiwan's China Airlines plans to send several test charter flights to Moscow this summer. The Russian Transaero is not far behind: the company promises to acquire a pair of long-haul aircraft by the end of the year in order to begin operating regular flights to Taipei no later than December. Alexander LOMANOV, Taipei - Moscow |
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