The war in Iraq could cost the Spanish prime minister his freedom

Yesterday, Spain's representative to the UN, Inocencio Arias, sharply criticized UN Secretary General Kofi Annan. Madrid is confident that the war in Iraq does not require UN sanctions, since they managed without them in Kosovo. And Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar is ready to do anything to disarm Baghdad, even sacrifice his own career or go to prison.
Two-faced Annan
The Spanish representative to the UN, Inocencio Arias, accused Kofi Annan of hypocrisy. The reason for this accusation was another statement by the Secretary General that possible military actions against Iraq without UN sanction would be a violation of international law. Mr. Arias said Kofi Annan has “two faces” because he “did not object to the international community taking action in Kosovo without UN authorization in 1999, and now insists on the need for such authorization to use force against Saddam Hussein.”
The Spanish diplomat also took a dig at his colleagues at the UN, saying that in this organization “there are many politicians trying to play the role of prophets who used to say one thing and now say something else.”
He recalled that during the Kosovo war there was complete unanimity in the West, and now the same people are calling the upcoming operation against Baghdad a “dirty game.”
The thesis that the Kosovo precedent provides every reason to launch military actions against Iraq without UN sanction does not belong to Inocencio Arias. In recent days, it has been repeated more than once by Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, followed by many high-ranking representatives of the government and the Foreign Ministry.
The Prime Minister of Spain has recently become the main friend of the Anglo-Saxon world on the European continent. The enthusiasm and confidence with which he speaks about the coming war in Iraq guarantees him third place in the ranking of supporters of the war, behind George W. Bush and Tony Blair. Moreover, in recent days, when Tony Blair has faced tough opposition within his own party, Mr. Aznar looks much tougher and more confident. However, he, like the British Prime Minister, will have to pay dearly for this.

Grateful Bush President Bush considers the Spanish prime minister his friend: since the beginning of the year they have already met twice. Just like George Bush and Tony Blair, Mr. Aznar speaks of the historical responsibility that lies today on the shoulders of the leaders of the anti-Iraq coalition: if not us, then who?
At the same time, he does not hide the fact that his tough position on the issue of war with Iraq is a conscious, pragmatic choice. He wants to show the world that Madrid is ready to play a leading role in international politics. “Spain should play in the top league, not the second, and not let others decide for it,” the prime minister said in a recent interview. The reward for such an active position by Madrid, observers say, could be a place in the G8. The United States is quite capable of thanking Spain in this way.
For this, the Prime Minister of Spain is ready to ignore the opinions of his party colleagues and his own voters. According to recent polls, about 80% of Spaniards oppose the war, even with UN sanction. Serious contradictions on the Iraqi issue have also arisen in the ranks of the ruling Workers' Party of Spain. About two-thirds of its members oppose the war.
However, strict party discipline does not allow Mr. Aznar's associates to follow the example of British Labor and put forward an ultimatum to the prime minister. In early March, the opposition Socialist Party tried to pass a resolution in parliament obliging the prime minister to seek peace in Iraq. The opposition insisted that the choice be absolutely free; The vote on the resolution was secret, which is very rare for the Spanish parliament. Despite this, all 183 members of the Workers' Party (a total of 350 seats in parliament) voted against the resolution.
Meanwhile, the Workers' Party's ratings continue to fall, with the Socialists taking the lead for the first time in February. It is expected that already in May, at the next local elections, the party will fully feel the consequences of its pro-American policies. However, for Jose Maria Aznar himself this is no longer important. He said he would not take part in next year's parliamentary elections.
Something else is important to him. Mr. Aznar has been repeatedly named among possible contenders for the post of head of the EU. But he will not be able to make a career in European structures without the approval of France and Germany. But Berlin and Paris will not forgive him for the “letter of eight” (the initiators of this document were Jose Maria Aznar and Tony Blair) and active military propaganda.

Terrible Garson

However, things could end even worse for Mr. Aznar. Prominent Madrid investigative judge Baltasar Garzón said recently that “politicians and military personnel who decide to attack Iraq without UN authorization could end up in the dock” of the International Criminal Court (ICC), which was sworn in on Tuesday. The judge noted that the start of the ICC's activities just these days, when a military strike on Iraq is being prepared, is "a sign of fate and a warning to those who do not want to respect the law."
The Spanish League for Human Rights was even more specific. Its leadership promised Mr. Aznar to bring him to trial in The Hague, as well as to a Spanish court, if he did not change his Iraqi policy. League President Francisco José Alonso Rodriguez reminded the Prime Minister that, according to the Spanish Constitution, only the head of state, King Juan Carlos, has the right to declare war and make peace. If the government violates this norm, human rights activists will file lawsuits against it in all national and international courts. A number of Spanish political parties, trade unions and public organizations issued similar warnings to the Spanish government.
In light of all these events and statements, Jose Maria Aznar's situation looks even worse than the situation faced by Tony Blair. Retribution may come to the Spanish prime minister a little later than his British counterpart, but Mr. Aznar's Iraqi policy threatens to turn into much more serious problems for him.
JUAN COBO, RIA Novosti correspondent in Spain, especially for Kommersant; ANTON B-CHERNYKH

Newspaper "Kommersant" No. 43 dated March 14, 2003, p. 9

Court against Jose Maria Aznar