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German Gref has options
Yesterday, the Ministry of Economic Development submitted scenario conditions for economic development to the government. Despite the excitement around the number of scenarios prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade (according to initial data there were 8), the government officially received two options. According to the first, the average annual oil price until 2006 will be $18.5 per barrel. The second option predicts a steady rise in prices. 21.5 dollars this year, 22 next year, and every year thereafter the average oil price will rise by 50 cents per barrel. True, the rapidly developing events around Iraq, according to First Deputy Minister of Economic Development Ivan Materov, forced us to recalculate the forecast for this year. Regardless of which development scenario is taken as a basis, this year, according to MEDT calculations, the average oil price will be $25.5. per barrel. Most likely, however, it will be even higher.From the point of view of the White House, which often critically evaluates the materials of Mr. Gref's department, the document on scenario plans for economic development for 2004-2006 is much more reasonable than the previous one. At the same time, according to the government staff, the concept of the Ministry of Economic Development changed in just two days. On Monday, the prime minister canceled the plan submitted by Gref’s department. The main complaint was that the document's main macroeconomic parameters turned out to be lower than those contained in the forecasts of the government's medium-term program. The Prime Minister invited the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and the Central Bank to submit additional calculations for all items.
Evil tongues in the government apparatus say that for the first time, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade proposed those same 8 options, including three main versions of the development of events plus subversions for each option. The result was a design consisting of a favorable option ($22 per barrel of oil), a moderate option ($18) and option “k” or critical ($13). Further in the forecast, all options were divided into sub-options: 1A and 2A, 1B and 2B, etc. Then followed even more sophisticated gradations: “radical 2B” or 1K, which is described as “inertial-conservative.” Moreover, according to government representatives, in all these versions and subversions, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade should have, but did not write, what needs to be done to achieve high rates of economic growth.
The Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, according to Mr. Materov, was greatly surprised by the wide public response caused by the development of scenario conditions. This document has been in development for ten years, but this is the first time that such interest has been shown in it. The point of the development is simply to “provide macroeconomic guidelines for regional and sectoral forecasts, on the basis of which more detailed “initial conditions” will then be made.” On the same day, German Gref met with Vladimir Putin. The President noted that he was aware of the recent board meeting of the ministry, which was held “in a businesslike manner, at which both demands and criticism were voiced.” The head of state does not see anything bad in this. “This should not set one in a pessimistic mood, but, on the contrary, should set one up for work,” he told the head of the economic department.