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Date
07/10/2003
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Hidden
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Polit.ru
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Translated material

Review of the Finmarket agency


The dollar decreased by 6 kopecks, to 30 rubles 36 kopecks. The decline should be interpreted as a correction after the beginning of the beginning of the week, when in three days the dollar grew by 13 cents. Trading on the ETS took place calmly, their volumes are minimal. From today, the decision of the Central Bank to reduce the standard for the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings of exporters has entered into force to 25%. However, the market “played” this decision in advance and today the main factor in the growth of the ruble was probably that in the world markets of the euro it ceased to decline in relation to the dollar, and a slight increase in oil prices. Probably, in the near future, the dollar exchange rate will neither decrease, nor grow strongly, unless, of course, the dynamics of the main “external” factors of the V euros to the dollar and oil prices does not change much. Trading in the euro today went at yesterday V 34.45V34.5 rubles per euro, the official euro exchange rate for tomorrow was set at 34 rubles 49 kopecks (+1 kopecks).

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In the world markets, foreign exchange rates are stabilized: the euro and the dollar are looking for a balance for more than two days around $ 1.13 per euro (current level V 1.133 dollars). The tendency to strengthen the dollar in relation to most world currencies is still visible, but there are exceptions: so, the Japanese yen is growing for several days (the dollar now costs about 117.5 yen). Gold continues to get cheaper and costs 342V343 dollars for a troika ounce. Oil prices are growing for two days, the Russian variety Urals, according to the latest data, costs $ 26.9 per barrel, the Brent Blend has approached $ 29, and the American Crude Oil V is to the 31 dollar per barrel. Little growth is supported by seasonal factors, as well as “local” difficulties with oil supplies V storms in the Gulf of Mexico, for example. About the leading global stock indices: in the USA DOW decreased by 0.7%, NASDAQ grew by 0.2%; In Europe yesterday, a moderate decline was observed (0.5V1%), which continues today v 15:00 DAX (Germany) has lost 1.1%, CAC40 (France) V 0.9%, FTSE100 (Britain) V 0.3%. In the Asian markets, the situation is a little better than V decrease prevails, but it is small. Nikkey (Japan) after a long growth still could not resist the positive trajectory today, decreasing by the end of trading by 0.35%. During the month, Nikkey has grown by almost 14%. The growth in world markets, which prevailed in the spring and partly in June, is clearly suspended, but it is noticeable that the high -tech sector demonstrates the best results than the corporation as a whole V NASDAQ for a month added more than 7%, and the DOW V is only a little more than 1%.

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To the Russian stock market. Yesterday, in the evening, the market began to fall after a series of very conflicting reports on the underpayment of taxes by Russian oil companies, primarily Yukos. Some of the figures given are obviously unrealistic (for example, the data that Yukos paid only 90 million rubles to the budget), nevertheless, the discussion of this issue will probably continue today, and this does not add stability to the market. Yesterday, the RTS index decreased by 3.8%, today by 15:00 another 2.53% V the index reached 481.27 points added to the decrease. About 4% lost Yukos and Gazprom, and Sibneft and Sberbank quotes decreased by 2V3%. Lukoil, Surgutneftegaz, Rostelecom and Tatneft fell by 1V2%. The situation with the shares of RAO UES and the Norilsk Nickel is more stable, their losses do not exceed 1%of their losses. It is possible that the current decrease in V only the beginning of large -scale correction (recall that in the first half of the year the RTS index grew by 40%, which significantly exceeded even the optimistic part of the forecasts of the beginning of the year). Now, under the influence of the growth of instability, investors can significantly adjust their market positions. However, let's hope that this process will still not be large -scale, and the correction will be shallow and in the coming days it will end, after all, subject to the resolution of the problems that have arisen in recent days, the market will certainly retain medium -term attractiveness.

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