| Putting money on deposit in a bank is becoming more and more profitable The desire of a private investor to receive income without significant risk by depositing his money in a bank usually seems naive. But not now. In September, banks began offering clients long-term deposits at increased rates, that is, the opportunity to receive a return of 14--15% per annum with inflation of 6--8%. At the same time, according to the Center for Macroeconomic Research (CMER) BDO Unicon, a situation arose in the market when deposits, regardless of the type of currency and placement period, brought real income to their owners.
Whether you will make a profit if you take money to the bank, and what exactly it will be, depends on the rate on your deposit and inflation, and if you invest in money in foreign currency, then on the movement of exchange rates. In September, everything played into the hands of investors - prices, according to the State Statistics Committee, rose by 0.3%, and the two main currencies - the dollar and the euro - strengthened against the ruble by 0.36 and 5.6%, respectively. As a result, as CMEI BDO Unicon writes, deposits in rubles brought a real return of 0.17--0.7%, deposits in dollars - 0.3--0.6%, and in euros - above 6% . Thus, the euro once again supported its reputation as an extremely unstable investment vehicle: back in August, the real ruble return on deposits in this currency was negative: -3.59--3.86%. As a result, CMEI calls ruble deposits “the most stable instrument for the population’s savings.”
Meanwhile, the bankers themselves added joy to their clients by increasing deposit rates by 0.75-2% by the end of the holiday season. However, Elena Matrosova, General Director of the Center for International Economic Research, believes that this will not last long, since “banks orient their interest rate policies towards inflation and rates rarely cover price increases.” “Now the monetary authorities have exceeded the task of containing inflation (with a target of no higher than 12%, at the end of nine months it amounted to 8.6%), she says, “so it may happen that price increases will not reach 12%, but banks will have real prospects for rate adjustments.”
“In fact, the inflation potential is quite large,” says Troika Dialog economist Anton Struchenevsky, noting that the seasonal decline in prices in August-September was insignificant, and annual inflation will most likely be close to 13%. Mikhail Matovnikov, head of the banking department of Interfax RA, is confident that the “trend towards rising rates” is not a seasonal surge. “The increase in deposit rates, on the one hand, will be supported by rising yields on the securities market, and on the other hand, by the low liquidity indicators of the banks themselves. Banks need long-term borrowed money more and more,” he says.
A number of banks in September offered clients deposits for two years or more at increased rates. Thus, the Bank of Moscow began accepting ruble deposits (from 30 thousand rubles) for up to two years at 14% per annum, and Neftyanoy Bank opened a 5-year deposit in foreign currency with a yield of 11% per annum. The inflation forecast by the Central Bank and the government for 2004 is 8-10%, and for 2005 - 6.5-8.5%. “It’s easy to calculate how much income you can get from these deposits!” - exclaims Mrs. Matrosova. The expert explains such proposals by the fact that “strategic planning in our banks is in its infancy.” Mr. Matovnikov adds that “a number of banks need funds not only to develop, but also to maintain their business, and as a result, deposit rates are determined not only by market factors.” Yuri VERETENNIKOV |
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