| Azerbaijan's ruling elite discusses Aliyev Jr.'s chances If the residents of Azerbaijan still have to make a choice on October 15 by checking the name of the future president on the ballot, then the Russian elite has already decided this issue for themselves. As the newspaper Vremya Novostey learned, it is possible that Aliyev Jr. will visit Moscow even before the elections. Moreover, at the CIS summit in Yalta last month, Vladimir Putin warmly welcomed 42-year-old Ilham Aliyev, congratulated him on his appointment as prime minister and invited him to the Russian capital. The “monarchical” method of transferring power from father to son in Moscow did not bother anyone.
Heydar Aliyev, observing all points of the law, appointed his son prime minister on time, and last Thursday, as expected, ten days before the vote, he refused to participate in the elections in favor of Ilham. Now all administrative and financial resources are being devoted to promoting the “political heir.” All TV channels are playing clips of a popular local rap group with the rhythmic refrain “Together with Ilham the leader - in step with the times.”
Judging by television reports, the campaign of Aliyev Jr. is on the rise - the people cordially welcome the son of “Baba Heydar” (“Grandfather Heydar,” as Aliyev Sr. has been called by the people for many years) and willingly listen to election promises. Officials still prefer not to tell him that he is copying his father in tone, manner of speaking, and gestures, and the copy is very far from the original. But the ruling elite will do everything possible to ensure that a young representative of the Aliyev clan comes to the presidency. Because defeat in the elections means a purge of all echelons of power and prosecution of members of the current nomenklatura, tied to all business in Azerbaijan.
An alarming signal for the Aliyev clan could be the results of a poll conducted recently by the American National Foundation for Support of Democracy, “Protect Your Voices.” Since May, the number of people willing to vote for Ilham Aliyev (or Heydar and Ilham Aliyev) has fallen from 41 to 27.4%. The chances of Aliyev Jr.’s closest rivals, on the contrary, have increased. Not 21%, but 36.3% of voters are ready to support the chairman of the Musavat party, ex-speaker of parliament Isa Gambar, not 5, but 10% are ready to support the former chairman of the Liberal Party of Azerbaijan Lala Shovket Hajiyeva, and the candidate from the National Independence Party Etibar Mamedov - not 4, but 7.2% of voters.
So far, polls indicate the inevitability of a second round of elections. Well-known Baku political scientist Eldar Namazov remarked to a VN correspondent: “Ilham differs from his more solid father. It will not be easy for Ilham Aliyev to complete the election marathon on his own, to minimize the inevitable protests that will follow after the announcement of the voting results, and to withstand international pressure in connection with possible violations of the law and principles of democracy." Irada ALEKPEROVA, Baku |
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