November and "Power" have come, as always, offers its economic forecast for the beginning of the month. Experts will answer the following questions: what will happen to the ruble exchange rate, what the inflation rate will turn out to be, how the world oil prices will change, what will happen to the dollar to the euro. But for starters, we will evaluate the main economic event of the October Revolution.

The main economic event of October can be recognized as spectacular fluctuations in the Russian stock market. Of course, this market is not comparable to the markets of leading industrial countries, but there are foreign money on it, shares of very large ones are sold here even by Western standards of companies. Note that it was in October that the market participants recalled the 1997 stock crisis, which ended in the general economic crisis of August 1998.
October began with the fact that the RTS index (by which, in fact, is judged by the state of the Russian stock market), on the first day of the month, set an absolute record - 573.85 points. Analysts recalled that the previous record (571.66 points) was set on October 6, 1997 - on the day of signing the first agreement of Russia with the London club of creditors. Then it was assumed that Western money would finally pour in Russia. Now the market participants spoke about the same, referring to the intention of the Moody`s credit agency to reconsider the rating of Russia. They were also very happy that since the beginning of the year the Russian stock market has grown by 65%, having gone through this indicator in second place in the world after Argentine (80%). It was indicated that only two months left before the announcement of elections to the State Duma and the expected strengthening of pro -government factions can "positively affect the promotion of economic reforms." It was assumed that the elections (that is, some political uncertainty) are the only obstacle to raising the Russian rating to the investment level, which will attract an additional flow of long -term capital to the country. Investors in this increase were absolutely sure, so they began to bet on the growth of stock quotations. The ruble liquidity situation also improved - the lack of money, which lasted several weeks, has stopped. Finally, investors began to receive money from the payment of dividends and operations for the opposite ransom of the shares of Yukos. This is hundreds of millions of dollars, and some of this money is already investing back into Russian actions.
On October 3, the RTS index during trading reached 607.31 points. However, the day ended with 594.26 points. Thus, in the first half of the day the promotions went up by 3%, and then fell by 5%. The players in the market spun as they could. At first they were inspired by the news of the completion of the transaction to unite Yukos and Sibneft. Then they were even more inspired by the fact that the head of the American Exxonmobil Lee Ramond began the day, sitting at the same table with the head of Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky at a meeting of the World Economic Forum in Moscow, at the Marriott Grand Hotel Hotel. True, the day continued that President Vladimir Putin spoke at the forum in the main conference hall, and Mikhail Khodorkovsky spoke on a mobile phone in the hotel lobby, because it was at this time that a search was searched in Yukos. So the players were completely disappointed and spoke that the situation in Russia is far from the ideal and previous growth can be replaced by the so -called correction (in other words, a cheaper of overly rise in terms of defenses), which, in turn, can go into a panic collapse of quotes.
On October 8, the Moody`s agency suddenly announced that the rating of Russian state -owned Eurobonds and ruble bonds was increased by two steps at once - to the investment level of BAA3. True, this is the lowest investment rating - Thailand or Croatia already have one. But on market players, the news made a truly magical impact. In the morning, stocks fell (and fell by 2%). And in the afternoon they began to grow so that according to the results of the auction, they increased by 3.15%, setting the next RTS record - 628.98 points.
On October 22, the RTS index decreased by 4.1%, reaching 594.8 points (Yukos paper fell by 7.5%). Players themselves could not explain why they sell Russian actions. Everyone referred to some kind of uncertainty.
On October 27, on the first Monday, after the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, by the middle of the day the RTS index fell by almost 15% and reached 510.63 points (trading at the MICEM and Trading on the RTS had to be stopped so that this panic does not arise). Analysts and players only talked about 1997, when foreign investors fled from Russia.
It is necessary to conclude that the October events testified to the disbelief of foreign capital in the Russian economy. With all the conversations about the Moody`s investment rating, the players behaved as if Russia is no more than the object of exchange speculation. Actually, this is quite logical. The aforementioned rating agency did not say anything about the profitability and financial stability of Russian enterprises. It only said that the Russian authorities were financially stable because they have good gold and foreign exchange reserves. However, the Russian authorities do not issue shares, only bonds - therefore, speculators behaved in October in the Russian stock market.
Sergey Minaev ("Power"), Nikolai Vardul ("Power")

In November, inflation will exceed 1%, and the dollar will rise in price to 30.1 rubles

1. What will happen to the ruble course?
In our forecast for October, we indicated that the course in Russia has nothing to do with free swimming, is regulated by the Central Bank and you only need to guess which way it is actually regulated. We also emphasized that it is very difficult to guess: the ruble is not kept from cheaper or from a rise in price. It had to be assumed that in October the Central Bank would hold the ruble from the cheaper, and the rate will exceed 30.65 rubles per dollar. As for the retention of the ruble from my cheese, this was Monday after the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky: during the fall of Russian actions, the Central Bank resolutely held the ruble. But otherwise we did not guess, because according to the results of October 31, the official rate was 29.85 rubles per dollar.
It would seem that all this is very strange. According to some reports, the Central Bank does not consider high oil prices such a reason for the rise in price of the ruble, because the current standard of mandatory sale of export revenue considers to return dollars to their homeland ugly and not forcing raw materials. Thus, only dollars remains in Russia in the form of short -term speculative capital remain. At the end of the year, this capital usually flows out of Russia rather than flowing. Why then ruble?
It creates a complete impression that the Central Bank simply wants to confuse speculators either increasing the ruble, then lowering it for no apparent reason, just so that no one can predict anything and play anything, so that there is no pre -declared policy of yield devaluation.
Despite the attempts of the Central Bank to confuse everyone, we continue to predict the dollar in Russia. In order of unpredictability, the dollar can rise in price to 30.1 rubles in November.

2. What will happen to Russian prices?
We assumed that in October the seasonal factor would cease to operate in the Russian consumer market, Russian enterprises would begin to prepare for the successful completion of the financial year (which is achieved not by reducing costs, but by raising prices), so official inflation will exceed 1%. As usual, the inflationary results of the power of the month have not yet summed up, so we have not received a formal confirmation of the forecast. However, contrary to the usual, the government very carefully in October informed the public about the course of hostilities in the Russian consumer market. At first, the Ministry of Economic Development reported that inflation from October 1 to 13 amounted to 0.53%, then the ministry emphasized that the increase in prices from October 1 to 20 amounted to 0.8%. Thus, we have every reason to believe that our forecast has completely come true, and official inflation exceeded 1% (it is unlikely that in the last 11 days of the month the increase in prices has ceased).
Note that in October, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance escaped an open dispute about the change in deflation, which was observed in August, to extremely high (by Western standards) inflation in October. Apparently, the authorities are already sure that the inflation plan of 12% per year will certainly be able to fulfill. In January-September, prices, according to official figures, rose by 8.6%, in October exceeded 1%, but not much, so that two months and more than 2%remain until the end of the year. Theoretically, the plan can be fulfilled.
Our forecast: Slowing of inflation is not expected in November, so the increase in prices will again not much exceed 1%.

3. What will happen to world oil prices?
In our forecast for October, we noted that OPEC is currently trying to convince the world market intensively that the oil supply in the world is noticeably exceeding demand, despite the decision to reduce production, and new reductions are not excluded at all. So speculators can play perfectly well. However, the Americans are not so rich as to pay any price requested by oil exporters, so in October they will give no more than $ 29 for Brent. On October 30, $ 28.55 was given for Brent barrels, and here we can consider our forecast for fully settled.
Note that in October, OPEC representatives fogically reasoned that Russia should reduce production. Russia answered equally vaguely that it does not consider the current prices so good because they can cause the complaints of Western consumers: they say, the price of $ 25 for a barrel of Russia is much more. So talk about reducing production to conduct prematurely. The matter came to the point that OPEC had to make excuses for the intention to reduce production from November 1 by 900 thousand barrels per day, because with a long excess of oil price from the so -called OPEC basket $ 28 per barrel according to the rules of the cartel, it is necessary to decrease, but to increase.
Our forecast: we agree with the OPEC representatives who indicated that by the end of the year oil price will not change too much. In November, it will exceed $ 27 per barrel Brent.

4. What will happen to the dollar to the euro?
In our forecast for October, we recalled that the Ministers of Finance of the Seven countries strongly supported the Americans in their desire to increase the yuan exchange rate (that is, lowering the dollar), reminding the foreign exchange speculators about the 80s, when the “seven” was only engaged in the regulation of the exchange rate. Passions in October are clearly not yet settled, so the euro will be more expensive than $ 1.14. Our forecast has more than realized, because by the end of the month even more than $ 1.16 was given for the euro.
Note that Europeans and Japanese relate to the American-Chinese dispute with poorly hidden pleasure. Because we are talking about the supernatural deficiency of the US payment balance, which means the weakness of the American economy and the potential weakness of the American currency. Europeans have not yet forgotten the humiliations of 1999-2002, when everyone only said that the weakness of the new single European currency indicates the monstrous shortcomings of the European, primarily German, economy. Now the Germans and the French are with satisfaction notes no less Russian economics.
However, in October, the United States ceased to insist on the revaluation of the yuan, focusing not on the insufficient marketness of the Chinese currency policy, but on the insufficient marketness of the Chinese economy in general. They also indicated numerous China violations of obligations taken upon joining the WTO. And they made it clear that if China continues to close its market for American goods, then the United States will simply introduce barrage duties against Chinese goods, ceasing to talk about some currency courses at all. American officials also did not forget to mention their commitment to a strong dollar policy. And references to the weakness of the American economy began to look somehow unconvincing, because in the third quarter the US economic growth rate exceeded 7% per annum.
Our forecast: in November, the dollar will strengthen in relation to the euro, and for a single euro will be given less than $ 1.15.

Andrey Nechaev, CEO of the Russian Financial Corporation
1. The dollar is still perceived as the most stable currency. In the US economy, nothing happened, and the dollar grew up. If the situation in politics and in the stock market does not change, then the dollar can be at the level of 30.8-30.9 rubles.
2. With inflation, nothing will change, and if the dollar grows, then this will be an additional deflationary factor, and the Central Bank will not have to make any large interventions to maintain the courses.
3. Prices for oil will definitely not fall, and here rather the influence will not have the influence not Yukos, but an unprecedented terrorist attack in Iraq. This means that there is no need to wait for Iraqi oil to the market.
4. The ratio of the euro-dollar will be determined by strategic factors. The ratio of the Euro-ruble depends on it, but it is hardly worth expecting the fall of the euro, as it was at the end of October. The flow of the currency will be high, and the euro will remain within 34.5-35.5 rubles.

Sergey Shatirov, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on Promolitics
1. The dollar will gradually grow, as the main indices of the company's company stock markets began to grow. And this will entail the strengthening of the dollar both in relation to the euro and the ruble.
2. Most likely, inflation in November will be 0.5%. Despite the slight growth in different sectors, the condition with liquidity in the banking sector is quite safe. So until the end of the year there will be no significant increase in inflation.
3. Prices will remain high - there are no objective reasons for their reduction. The Iraqi war is not over, quotas from OPEC do not increase.
4. I think the euro will grow a little, but the growth will be more speculative than justified. The economy of 12 countries of the eurozone leaves much to be desired, the pace of production here is lower than in the United States, and inflation has almost approached the maximum level that European countries can afford.

Vladimir Egorov, Governor of the Kaliningrad region
1. I think that in November the dollar will return the lost position and by the end of the month it will slightly exceed the level of 30 rubles. The further fall of the dollar is not included in the plans of our government. The Central Bank and exporters will not allow the continuation of the course.
2. The average monthly inflation rate at the end of the year, as a rule, increases. This is due to the growing demand for fuel, an increase in prices for agricultural products and pre -holiday excitement. But, I think, the increase will not come out for 1%.
3. I think that the current price level is quite happy with leading oil producing countries. But they can reduce it slightly so that he does not limit the growth of consumer demand.
4. The European economy is growing more slowly than in the USA, and one of the reasons can be a high exchange rate of euros to the dollar, which limits exports from the eurozone. Most likely, the European Fininum Institutes will attempt to reduce the euro with respect to the dollar.

Nikolai Shmelev, Academician of the Russian Academy of Sciences:
1. Particularly sharp movements are not expected. The ruble exchange rate will fluctuate within 30 rubles. And about the tenth and hundredths are risky now to talk.
2. So far, no disasters and surprises from nowhere, so inflation will be moderate, with a weak hint of a decrease. I think that by the end of the year we will lay in the 13 percent promised by the Goskomstat.
3. There will be no sharp drops in oil prices in November, no one is interested in them. Oil prices to hold out at the same level until the USA and Canada are interested in the development of the worst oil sites - in Alaska and Texas. The price per barrel will be $ 28-29
4. If now the ratio of the dollar and the euro is 1: 1.17, then in November this ratio will not exceed 1: 1.18. Now a timid tendency to return to 1: 1.20 is noticeable, but I think that this will not happen in November.

Magazine "Kommersant Power" No. 43 dated 03.11.2003, p. 40

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