| The Americans received neither oil nor democracy in Iraq The May victory over Iraqi dictator Saddam turned into a difficult and exhausting war for America against an elusive and well-organized underground. During the 41 days of war and the subsequent 201 days of occupation, the United States lost 422 Americans killed in Iraq. Of these, more than half - 283 people - gave their lives after the victory over the “forces of evil” announced by George Bush on May 1.
America is trying to think less about the lessons of the past, but the return of the “Vietnam syndrome” is inevitable. The number of deaths among the victors is increasing. On Saturday, the US Army suffered its largest single casualty of the entire occupation period. 17 US troops were killed, five wounded and one missing after two Black Hawk helicopters crashed in the northern city of Mosul. One of the helicopters was hit by ground fire before losing control and crashing into another vehicle, a Pentagon spokesman said. The debris fell in a residential area of the city.
Many Iraqis saw the helicopters die. The fall of the two Black Hawks became a new source of inspiration for the Iraqi resistance and another dire warning for the White House. The stream of empty boasts from Saddam and his cronies turned into meager and credible threats from the guerrillas. They promised to intensify attacks on the occupiers from November 1 - and they did so. Over the past 17 days, 4 American helicopters were shot down in the skies of Iraq, killing 39 soldiers. “They thought that the occupation of Iraq would be a picnic,” said the voice of Saddam Hussein, broadcast yesterday by the Arabic television channel Al-Arabiya, “Iraq rebelled against their villainous intentions.”
Washington is still waiting for military help from other countries, but as military operations become more brutal, these hopes turn to dust. Rarely will a statesman risk sending his soldiers to their deaths in the Iraqi desert. Recently, Pentagon Chief Donald Rumsfeld traveled to Japan and South Korea with persuasion. But Tokyo has already announced a postponement of the transfer of its troops to Iraq - the death of 18 Italian peacekeepers after the explosion in Nasiriyah was too frightening. It turned out that death does not spare not only the Yankees, but also their allies. Seoul now wants to send 3 thousand military builders to the region instead of 5 thousand soldiers. The White House also needs to think about its reputation in the eyes of voters - next year there will be presidential elections in the United States, in which a military victory over Saddam could turn into a brutal domestic political defeat for George Bush. Already half of Americans believe that the war in Iraq should not have started.
George Bush says today: "We changed our strategy in Iraq because the enemy changed his." In fact, Washington is frantically looking for a way out. On the one hand, they rely on strength. The commander of the US Central Command, General John Ebizaid, arrived in Qatar. Over the past two days, American aircraft have bombed targets in Baghdad several times, as if the war had never ended.
On the other hand, the United States promises to quickly transfer power into the hands of the Iraqis. It has already been decided that by June 30, 2004, all power in the country will pass into the hands of the transitional Iraqi government, while the American administration will be dissolved. Another date is also provided - by March 31, 2004, agreements must be concluded between the Interim Governing Council of Iraq (IGC) and the American administration in Iraq, giving coalition forces the broadest powers to “ensure the security of the Iraqi people.”
But just recently, Moscow, Paris and Berlin tried in vain to persuade the United States to share power in Iraq. The Europeans asked to transfer sovereignty to the Iraqis even before the adoption of the new constitution and to support these plans with specific dates. Washington arrogantly denied, noting that reality can always make adjustments to dry numbers.
What European diplomats failed to achieve, Iraqi guerrillas achieved. But Russia, France and Germany are unlikely to be happy about this - if the American occupation of Iraq ends in Vietnamese style, the region will turn into a global powder keg, and not into the “model democracy” that Bush constantly promised. Transferring sovereignty to the Iraqis in the midst of growing resistance would plunge Iraq into a civil war that would attract many thousands of Islamic fanatics from around the world.
It is noteworthy that the United States failed to achieve not only the implementation of its political goals, but also its economic plans. Analysts’ arguments about the imminent and inevitable fall in oil prices after the American “liberation” of Iraq, which seemed convincing at the beginning of the year, remained theoretical calculations.
In April, the Iraqi military command believed that in July the country's oil industry would be able to produce about 1.6 million barrels per day, which is almost two-thirds of the pre-war volume. It was planned that in September production would increase to 2 million barrels per day, and at the end of the year - to 2.5 million barrels.
However, in early June, oil minister-designate Tamir Ghadban said the ministry's efforts to increase production and exports were hampered by incidents of looting, open sabotage and power outages in the country's southern fields. He said that production is about 0.7 million barrels per day and added that production will reach the level of 1.5 million tons by the end of the month, and to the pre-war level not earlier than the middle of next year. Mr. Ghadban was then replaced by Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloom, who reported in September that the country was producing about 1.8 million barrels of oil per day (60% of pre-war levels), with plans to double production by 2005. At the same time, oil exports amount to about 900 thousand barrels per day, and by the end of the year, production will reach the level of 2 million barrels per day. True, according to experts, production in September was at about 1.1 million tons.
With the advent of the new government, Iraq will begin to enter into contracts with foreign companies to develop the country's large oil and gas fields. Russian holdings will also fight to get a share in the projects - TNK-BP and YUKOS have recently announced their interest in Iraq, and LUKOIL and the company of ex-Minister of Energy Yuri Shafranik Soyuzneftegaz have long signed contracts for the development two large fields - West Qurna-2 and Rafidain, but whether the companies will retain these agreements will be decided by the new administration. By the end of this year, Iraqi Oil Minister Ibrahim Bahr al-Uloom is due to arrive in Russia at the invitation of Energy Minister Igor Yusufov. According to news agencies, during the visit he intends to consider the possibility of cooperation with the largest Russian oil companies and discuss the fate of Russian contracts in Iraq. The only interesting thing is how the Iraqi resistance will react to this. Andrey ZLOBIN, Denis REBROV |
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