In 2003, Russia experienced a real boom in sales of new foreign cars. Sales grew almost twofold, while sales of new domestic cars stabilized, and used foreign cars fell altogether. According to experts, the trend will continue next year: more and more Russians will give preference to products of Western automakers.

Analysts, manufacturers and sellers sum up the results of the year on the Russian car market. According to PricewaterhouseCoopers, 1.495 million cars will be sold in 2003, which is almost 80,000 more than the result of 2002. At the same time, cars are becoming more expensive for Russians - if last year they spent $10.417 billion on buying cars, then this year - $12.285 billion.

According to PWC partner Stanley Root, sales of imported cars in 2003 increased by 45% in quantitative terms, to 170,000 cars. The growth in monetary terms, according to his estimates, looks a little more modest: this year, foreign cars will be sold for $3.46 billion, compared to $2.67 billion last year. At the same time, the growth in sales of foreign cars is significantly ahead of some previous forecasts. In the fall of 2002, the analytical center DRI WEFA, in its forecast for the development of the Eastern European automobile industry, indicated that in 2003, sales of new imported cars in Russia would amount to 120,000 units and would only exceed 140,000 by 2006.

If we take into account the sales of foreign-brand cars assembled in Russia, the market dynamics are even more impressive. Valery Tarakanov, head of the marketing department of Rolf Holding, the exclusive distributor of Mitsubishi in Russia, believes that together with the Chevy Niva, 210,000 foreign cars have been sold in the country this year. According to Tarakanov, in 2002, sales amounted to 110,000 cars, i.e., growth was 90%. He believes that in addition to the obvious increase in the well-being of the population, other factors have a positive effect on the growth of foreign-brand car sales. "Because of the fall of the dollar, many are trying to buy a new car as quickly as possible. In addition, credit programs have played a significant role: in two and a half years, rates have fallen from 16-18% per annum in foreign currency to 9-10% per annum," says Tarakanov.

But the domestic auto industry and used car dealers have no reason to rejoice - their market share is declining. Natalia Zagvozdina from Renaissance Capital predicts that sales of domestic cars will fall by 7.5% this year to 822,000 cars (excluding AvtoVAZ export programs). However, according to Elena Sakhnova from OFG, sales of domestic cars will still increase somewhat by the end of the year - by 3% compared to 2002.

According to an AvtoVAZ employee, the plant's sales in 2003 will exceed last year's level, and in 2004 the growth will continue: dealers should receive 664,650 cars. And the official AvtoVAZ website states that in the first 11 months of 2003, the Togliatti Automobile Plant sold more than 560,000 cars at retail on the domestic market, which is 12,000 more than the level of the corresponding period in 2002. At the same time, according to the International Association of AvtoVAZ Dealers (IAD), as of mid-December, 60,000 - 65,000 unsold cars remained on the dealer lots of the Togliatti Plant.

In addition, for the first time since 2000, sales of used foreign cars have fallen in Russia - according to PWC, 400,000 such cars will be sold in Russia by the end of the year against 447,000 in 2002 - almost 50,000 more. In value terms, sales of used foreign cars in 2003 will amount to $4 billion against $4.213 billion in 2002.

The trends that have emerged in the automobile market this year will carry over into the next year, analysts are confident.

Tarakanov believes that 315,000 foreign cars will be sold next year (including the Chevy Niva), i.e. growth will be 50%. In his opinion, the slowdown in growth rates will be due to the rise in car prices caused by the rise in the euro exchange rate. Vyacheslav Smolyaninov from NIKoil disagrees with him. He believes that next year, sales of foreign cars will grow no less dynamically. Moreover, sales of foreign cars assembled in Russia will grow the most. "I believe that we can expect a 100% increase in their production," Smolyaninov believes.

"Domestic" foreign cars will undoubtedly take away consumers from domestic cars," agrees Zagvozdina from Renessans. Smolyaninov believes that the share of domestic cars in 2004 could fall from 61% to 55-56%. Sales of used foreign cars will remain at the same level or fall to 380,000 cars, Zagvozdina believes.

The companies whose activities largely contributed to this year's good statistics are making optimistic forecasts for next year. Oksana Khartonyuk, Ford Motor's PR manager, says that Ford's sales have grown by 300% in a year, to more than 20,000 cars. The final production plan will only be approved in mid-January, but it is already clear that at least 26,000 cars will be sold in 2004, she notes. Toyota will also sell more than 20,000 cars this year, exceeding its plan, the Japanese company's Russian office reported. Next year, Toyota plans to sell 30,000 cars in Russia. Valery Tarakanov says that Rolf Holding increased Mitsubishi sales in 2003 more than twofold - to 17,500 and expects that, according to the most cautious forecasts, sales of this brand will grow by no less than 5,000 cars in 2004.

The year of new foreign cars