| The dollar is already cheaper than 29 rubles The fall of the dollar has become such an undeniable economic reality that the Russian monetary authorities have allowed it to overcome another important psychological milestone. On Friday, the official exchange rate of the American currency fell below 29 rubles for the first time since May 2001, to 28.991 rubles/dollar. -- following the decline of the dollar against the euro and other leading currencies on the international market. Analysts believe that in the next two months the dollar could fall to 1.3--1.35 dollars per euro, and the revival of the US currency is postponed indefinitely.
The weakening of the dollar on the world market resulted in another surge in exchange rates in Russia. By 11.30 Friday, the weighted average dollar exchange rate for “tomorrow” settlements on the UTS (at which the Central Bank usually sets the official rate) amounted to 28.991 rubles/dollar, having dropped by 14 kopecks compared to the corresponding figure on Thursday. According to the results of trading at the session with “tomorrow” settlements, the US currency fell to 28.9717 rubles. for a dollar. At the same time, the official euro exchange rate increased by almost 20 kopecks to 36.9269 rubles/euro, and the euro exchange rate following trading on the ETS increased by 17 kopecks, to 36.9075 rubles.
According to dealers, the new record is largely a consequence of the passive behavior of the Bank of Russia, which abandoned large-scale purchases of dollars from market participants (as a result, since the beginning of the year, the dollar has already lost 46 kopecks in value, or 1.5%). At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the Central Bank actively released rubles onto the market, increasing gold and foreign exchange reserves to $77 billion, and now has taken a wait-and-see approach. At the same time, the Central Bank once again showed that for it there is no “minimum acceptable” level of the value of the dollar and it is not afraid of a sharp de-dollarization of the economy and the reset of the American currency at some “psychological point.” “We have no psychology, we are not a market cash register. Bought and sold - what's the difference,” said the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Oleg Vyugin, back in October.
Meanwhile, international players betting on a decline in the US currency are receiving support from all sides. Recently, economists from the International Monetary Fund recalled the possible prospects of a sharp devaluation of the dollar. On Wednesday, the IMF presented a report on the problems of US tax policy, which expressed concern about the growing budget deficit of the “superpower”. The growth of the budget and payments deficit, as well as the build-up of public debt, the IMF writes, increase the risk of “spontaneous elimination of the imbalance,” including due to exchange rate fluctuations. In other words, if the economy is not regulated by the American authorities, the market will regulate it. And the first target will be the already weakened dollar.
At the end of the week, speculators were encouraged by data on a slight reduction in unemployment in the US industrial sector (confirming forecasts that low interest rates in the US will remain in the near future), as well as by the Chairman of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet, who said that the strengthening of the euro (against the dollar) will have detrimental consequences for eurozone exporters as the global economy continues to grow. As a result, the exchange rate of the American currency against the euro reached a new historical low of 1.287 dollars/euro, and against the British pound - an 11-year low at around 1.8495 dollars/pound sterling.
The European press immediately regarded Trichet's statement as evidence of a “collusion” between American and European financiers. Indeed, despite the recent statement by US Treasury Secretary John Snow, who recalled the United States’ desire for a “strong” dollar, the American economy can count on emerging from stagnation precisely thanks to the cheap national currency and low interest rates. And European financial authorities are apparently ready to support such a scenario, counting on the fact that the United States can become the engine of economic recovery in the eurozone.
Deutsche Asset Management analyst Ian Faller, quoted by Bloomberg, believes that in the coming months the rate could easily reach $1.3. And according to Renaissance Capital economist Alexei Moiseev, against the backdrop of US budget problems, “the euro will continue to grow in the coming six months" and could reach 1.35--1.4 dollars per euro and corresponding levels in Russia. “At the 1.3 level, a certain number of people will decide that it’s enough to hold dollars, it’s time to go to euros,” he adds. - It's not scary. And the Central Bank can concentrate more on fighting inflation than on fighting the strengthening of the national currency.” Georgy STOLTS |
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