Boris Dolgin: If there is no disaster ...

If in the domestic politics 2004 will be largely under the sign of determining the ways of expenditure of oil money, as well as fortune -telling in the government and other bodies about the peculiarities of the second term of Vladimir Putin, then in international affairs the central issue of the year: “Will the US presidential elections be held according to the inertial scenario?”

If there are no disasters of an too serious scale (like September 11-it is not necessarily on the territory of America itself) or too unsuccessful events in any of the zones painful for the United States (for example, in their own economy), and even it will be possible to achieve at least one semi-humble success in the summer-at the beginning of autumn (economic, foreign policy ...)-the re-election of the younger more or less ensured and the world can sleep regarding relatively calmly.

The only democrat who, under an inertial scenario, can compile at least some noticeable competition to the current president-Wesley Clark. From this, however, it does not follow that he will become an official candidate from the Democratic Party. The very pigeon character will not yet have any chances - fatigue has not passed from Clinton, and the mobilization of liberals - as opposed to neoconservatism - is still insufficient.

At the same time, the scenarios of the US leadership will not be interested in a military way to get involved in new stories. Rather, a course will be taken to pacify those conflicts with which this can be done and informational smearing (with appropriate political accompaniment) of those where even a hint of success is not possible to achieve.

We will have a slightly different situation if the inertial scenario is destroyed. Then you can wait for an attempt to radical resolution of any issue-either in traditionally power form, or by radical coercion to the world.

It is on the selected scenario of American elections that many regional and interregional conflicts will largely depend. First of all, this applies to the fate of the powers of the “Axis of Evil”.

During the concentration in the spring and at the beginning of the summer of world attention to Iraq, North Korea simply languished from jealousy. She threatened, but they either did not notice or snapped, she hinted, but they did not hear hints. That is, if necessary, they rattled with muscles, but so - more for order. But time does not wait - the country needs money, the conversion of military resources into the financial form was allotted and postponed.

When the problem of Iraq receded a bit (more precisely: she moved to another phase - no less complex, but requiring less strategic attention), the United States, preparing the on -duty whip and gingerbread, took up Korea more serious. In an inertial scenario, the United States will continue the line of recent months: to agree on relatively reasonable conditions. So that there was no threat to Pyongyang, but at the same time, it would still not have to spend a lot of money of American taxpayers too much. In order to guarantee from the threat of direct military operation, but at the same time do not take responsibility for preserving the invariability of the regime.

Radical promotion in negotiations in this direction is not excluded. If the inertial scenario is allowed, then with the next bloom of the North Korean leadership, the reaction can be radical.

The Iranian problem receded even further from the Carry point - an additional protocol to the contract on non -proliferation of nuclear weapons was signed, cooperation with the IAEA seems to be getting better. Moreover, internal events are not too favorable for radical intervention - in a situation of sharp exacerbation on the eve of the elections of relations between clericals and reformers, too strong pressure can increase the first. At the same time, if the struggle around the pre -election lists is relatively promptly declining and does not have time to lead to serious mobilization of the non -agricultural population, the configuration in the country may change, and not in favor of reforms. Radicals and simply disappointed in the pace of transformations can vote with their feet.

But this is not the best situation for radical intervention. A similar rollback of the reformist wave, if it does not turn out to be too strong, on the contrary, help to comprehend mistakes in the authorities and after a while return there.

So that we still continue to hope for the potential of the internal transformations of a given country, which can and should support, but it is precisely the keys of Soros, and not the master of Ramsfeld. I have no doubt that Iran has elements of a nuclear program, but I think that it is possible to slow down their development with the help of inspections, it’s also easier to make it through an attempt to get to them, but through a change in those in whose hands these elements are located. The abandonment of the inertial scenario here can lead to exacerbation (maybe, however, it would be more appropriate to write not “and”, but “or” - it is unlikely that a serious aggravation will go on many fronts). If the rollback from the reforms is too strong, and the nuclear program is intensified, there is an effective way to intervene in its course, tested by Israel in Iraq in 1981.

In a more indefinite situation, Syria is located. Contrary to the mass hysteria of many of our media around the possibility of expanding the Iraqi operation to its territory, “Polit.ru” constantly doubted such a scenario, saying that the maximum possible is an operation against the bases of the Palestinian and other terrorists in the country. Moreover, in a good situation - from a silent (or weak protesting) consent of the country's leadership - no matter what it was said, few rejoice in the presence of not too controlled armed groups. Since the dispute, an Israeli blow has been inflicted on one of the basic basins in the country. Judging by the militant of the reaction of official Syria, either the blow was insufficient, or it should not be carried out Israel.

In the case of an inertial scenario, it is hardly worth expecting too radical actions here, except that pressure on Syria in order to refuse the actual support of “Hizballs” and other terrorist groups based on its territory. From the legal sphere they are almost expelled. The task of further extrusion. The pressure cannot be excluded in order to resume secret or obvious negotiations with Israel.

The departure from the inertial scenario can still lead to attacks on the bases of terrorists and a sharp increase in pressure in these directions.

By the way, in case of realization of the need for urgent successes, it is impossible to exclude the twisting of the hands of Israel in the spirit of the trips of Henry Kissinger - in order to achieve a different level of blotness.

What was led to inaccurate compulsion to the world by the previous president of the United States, we already see - it was then that Israel was forced to go to unprecedented concessions, which were perceived by the Palestinian side as a sign of weakness. Hence the al-axa intifada. The parish of Ariel Sharon on the temple mountain declared by the Palestinians and some left -wing liberals (the place where the Jewish temple was once located - in both of its options) - was nothing more than the reason for its beginning.

What will an attempt to force the world in this direction now? It is unlikely to be something better. Therefore, with an inertial scenario, the Israeli-Palestinian direction will rather extinguish and glorify. If only the Sharon himself does not manage to force the Palestinian leaders to a responsible dialogue with a protective wall and other measures (and there is hope for this, although the “world community” interferes with the best motives of this line).

In Iraq in the coming year, an increasingly transfer of powers of the ruling council management will occur. A constitutional act and so on will be actively developed, while the allies are not expected to be a serious withdrawal of troops. The requirement to speed up the process of this conclusion will remain either by blessing or a completely conscious political demagogy - there is no other way to strengthen the relatively legal power in the country, as well as to gradually go to absolutely legal, except under the “attentive” observation. Bush will try to achieve any noticeable success in establishing life by the time of the election.

In the remaining directions, probably, quite clear continuation of last year’s trends are waiting for us, which from time to time will be resolved by something productive.

So, the European Union in the coming year will probably still accept its constitution, having found a compromise both in the religious sphere and in the principles of decision -making. The World Trade Organization will again try to agree on the creation of new uniform rules to open markets and the support of domestic manufacturers. The probability that this will be able to do this in the coming year.

China will continue to intensify, actively engaged in internal transformations and gently interfering with international problems as an arbiter. The rigid line will continue only in the Taiwanese direction and in the desire to do with a non -united way to solve the Korean problem.

Certain progress in the Indo-Pakistani direction will continue, if only at some point as a result of very democratic procedures Perevez Musharraf will not lose his power.

Well, the foreign policy of our country, like its neighbors, is the subject of a separate article.