Maxim Momot. Leave it alone! (conversations)

Leave it alone! (conversations)
Maxim Momot

Publication date: February 24, 2004

The confrontation between the two factions in the presidential administration is over. The "St. Petersburg" ones swallowed up the "family ones", Mikhail Kasyanov - the last of Yeltsin's circle - was dismissed .

Olga Kryshtanovskaya , director of the Institute of Applied Politics, directly linked the decree on the resignation of the government to the upcoming elections. “The President himself said the reasons for his decision - he wants to approach the elections with new people,” she noted in an interview with RJ. Perhaps democrats will be brought into the government. The president would thus be able to position himself as a unifier of various political forces.

According to Ms. Kryshtanovskaya, such drastic actions cannot have a negative impact on Putin’s campaign, just like nothing at all. In reality, the president faces only one threat - accusations of the undemocratic nature of the elections . In this situation, inviting one of the democrats into the government would be an alternative. Putin could have done this after the elections, which means that the decision is directly related to the upcoming vote on March 14. Apparently, the president wants to demonstrate the democratic nature of the Russian political system.

A similar opinion was expressed in a commentary for RJ by political scientist Leonid Radzikhovsky . In his opinion, the official commentary in connection with the resignation of the government reflects the actual state of affairs. The President wants the new government to show voters what course they will vote for. This is not a PR move: such techniques are simply not necessary.

Mr. Radzikhovsky suggested that if no unpleasant events for the population were planned after the elections, there would be no point in Putin making this castling. There is a desire to share responsibility - after the formation of a new government, no one will be able to call the elections a vote for a pig in a poke.

“This is, in a sense, a signal that actions are being planned that will be unpleasant to the majority of voters,” the political scientist believes. It looks as if Yeltsin, before his first election on June 12, 1991, announced his intention to make Gaidar head of government and dissolve the Union.

However, Leonid Radzikhovsky does not think that Putin will introduce representatives of the democratic direction of Russian politics into the government. From a PR point of view, he doesn’t need them, and, in the opinion of a political scientist, there would be little practical sense in inviting them. The outcome of the elections is still known. Most likely, the seats in the new cabinet of ministers will be occupied by techies or “KGB officers.” The suddenness of the resignation can be attributed to the desire to demonstrate one’s own strength.

Vagif Huseynov , director of the Institute for Strategic Assessments and Analysis, noted in an interview with RJ that the president spoke quite clearly: he wants to give a clear impetus regarding the economic course. By the name of the new prime minister, it will be possible to judge the state’s economic policy for the foreseeable future.

According to Yakov Pleiss , head of the department of political science at the Financial Academy under the Government of the Russian Federation, a new government is being created to implement the program that the president outlined on the 12th. Perhaps it was the upcoming resignation of the government that was discussed at the recent meeting of Vladimir Putin with Viktor Khristenko.

Mark Urnov , President of the Expertise Foundation, shared his assumptions regarding a possible candidacy for the post of Prime Minister with RJ. With all the reservations regarding the dubiousness of such forecasts, the expert still named the name of Alexei Kudrin. The appointment of Sergei Ivanov is less likely, since the president needs to demonstrate a desire for liberalization.

Perhaps Kudrin will be appointed for three years, and then, if Putin chooses Ivanov as his successor, he will replace Kudrin for election promotion. Whoever takes the place of prime minister in the near future is unlikely to be Putin's successor in 2008.

In the short term, according to Mr. Urnov, the decision to resign the government is caused by the desire to further increase the president’s rating due to the positive influence exerted on the people by the authorities’ harsh treatment of the boyars. Perhaps within the presidential structures there is a competition between various groups around raising the presidential rating, and it was in this environment that such a move was developed.

The positive electoral effect for the president in the current conditions was also noted by Igor Mintusov , chairman of the board of directors of the Nikollo M Center for Political Consulting. However, in the expert’s opinion, this could not have been done. The president, apparently, just wants to strengthen his position, like in a chess game.