
Commenting on the RJ scandal with the detention of Russian agents in Qatar, Evgeny Satanovsky , president of the Institute for Israel and Middle East Studies, noted: “Here again we have a conspiracy theory common to the Islamic world. For the Qatari authorities, agents of the Russian special services have also been added to the MOSSAD agents.” At one time, the Arab monarchies were afraid of the Soviet Union, now all phobias have been transferred to Russia.
As for the practice of physically eliminating terrorists itself, Evgeniy Satanovsky considers it the only effective one. Opponents of this method, in the expert's opinion, are either patrons of terrorists or people who “do not feel apart from them.”
“It is impossible to fight terrorists with declarations,” the expert emphasized. The Russian Federation has not carried out serious actions to protect its interests for a long time, although it has quite enough funds for this. Russia was only recently on the list of great powers, and “nothing gives the right to wipe one’s feet on it.” It's just a matter of political will. An example is France, which, despite the loss of the status of a colonial empire, effectively uses its foreign legion. In any case, Russia will no longer act as it did during the period of political paralysis of the 90s.
Andrei Piontkovsky, president of the Center for Strategic Studies, was not so categorical in his commentary to RJ, although he considers the involvement of Russian special services in the murder of Yandarbiev to be quite probable. The official response of the Russian Foreign Ministry can also be interpreted in favor of this version. Firstly, it recognizes that two of the detainees belong to the special services. Secondly, a significant part of the statement is devoted to the personality of Yandarbiev himself.
The consequences for Russia if the involvement of the special services in the terrorist attack is proven could be very sad. Andrei Piontkovsky recalled the story of the detention of Israeli agents in Jordan about five years ago. They were on a mission to kill a Palestinian terrorist. In the end, Israel achieved their extradition, but the moral losses from this story for the Israeli side were significant.
The task for the Russian special services, if there was one, according to Andrei Piontkovsky , was set as primitive - Yandarbiev was not hiding in Qatar. Perhaps the elimination of the militant was a reaction of despair after the explosion in the subway; they decided to take revenge at least in this way. In any case, the operation cannot be called successful, since its alleged participants ended up in the hands of the Qatari authorities.
Alexander Khramchikhin, head of the analytical department of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis, shares the same opinion regarding the outcome of the operation. However, the expert is convinced of the effectiveness and necessity of such actions. “I would think that this would be absolutely correct,” he emphasized, “if there are no failures, as there are now.”
True, the effect of physically eliminating terrorist leaders is only psychological, just like the effect of the terrorist attacks themselves. Ultimately, it is necessary to hit the sources of financing of the terrorist network. However, psychological pressure should not be neglected. An example here is set by Israel, whose leadership adheres to a firm rule - a person who makes an attempt on the life of an Israeli must die.
In the future, the situation for Russian citizens may become seriously complicated. Alexander Khramchikhin does not rule out holding a trial of detained Russians in Qatar and imposing a death sentence. Then Russia will only have forceful methods of pressure. After all, Qatar is in no way connected with Russia, unlike Belarus, and certainly does not depend on it. So political pressure will not solve the problem.
The situation could be corrected with the help of the United States. For example, if a statement is made, the essence of which would be reduced to the thesis: the liquidation of Yandarbiev was carried out as part of the fight against international terrorism. However, achieving such an agreement is hardly possible. The Americans will not quarrel with Qatar because of us. They have their own strategy in the Persian Gulf - now new allies are needed in the region, since the partnership with Saudi Arabia is becoming a thing of the past. If the operation had been carried out quietly, the United States might have approved it.
Alexey Makarkin , head of the analytical department of the Center for Political Technologies, also places hope in his overseas colleagues. At the same time, he considers it possible to use unofficial channels in this situation. First, it is necessary to at least achieve the release of Russian citizens on bail, because the state of detention centers in Arab countries is far from European standards.
The likelihood of Russian special services being involved in the elimination of Yandarbiev, according to the expert, is low. This is too rough work . It would be more effective to involve Yandarbiev’s associates in the operation, rather than using employees seconded to the embassy.