| Political scientists comment on the president's decision Vyacheslav NIKONOV, President of the Politika Foundation:
- The appointment is unexpected - as always, because Putin makes decisions about such appointments himself, guided by criteria that are unknown to anyone. I believe that the president made the decision to resign, already knowing the name of the future prime minister. The president named the reasons why Fradkov was chosen: professionalism, decency, work experience. In the general plan of the Russian nomenklatura, Fradkov looks quite good. Indeed, he is a professional person; he has worked in the government since 1992. In addition, and importantly, Fradkov was engaged in foreign economic activity at a time when Putin himself was engaged in it. Almost a security officer - he worked in the Security Council and the tax police. Finally, the world knows well. The international community and foreign investors will not perceive him negatively, if only because they do not know Fradkov. And the fact that he worked for six months in the Security Council and headed the tax police is unlikely to scare anyone away. Although, of course, he cannot be considered a leader of liberal reforms, because Putin is not a liberal, but a conservative, and he does not need liberals. But reforms will still be carried out, so where to go?
Joseph DISKIN, co-chairman of the National Strategy Council:
- Our president is a man with a great sense of humor and a great virtuoso. He showed good knowledge of the political elites, and also opened up a free race among representatives of his inner circle in the struggle for the place of his successor. Mikhail Efimovich is an absolutely remarkable person in terms of personal qualities, but he is definitely not Putin’s successor. And if the president had proposed one of the possible successors for the post of prime minister, he would simply have been devoured alive by 2008. And they won’t eat the prime minister that Putin will install in 2006-2007, because they might not make it in time and end up with the Russian president as an enemy. Fradkov is a technical man who obviously does not claim any political dividends. At the same time, he is well aware of the key problems that need to be resolved in the near future: negotiations with the WTO, relations with the expanding European Union, the fight for the economic interests of Russian business. Finally, the figure of Fradkov is equidistant from all political players. This is a liberal man, well acquainted with Gref and Kudrin, and at the same time he headed the tax police and was Ivanov’s first deputy on the Security Council. The system of checks and balances is verified down to the micron.
Dmitry ORESHKIN, head of the Mercator group:
- It is symptomatic that the prime minister’s candidacy was not chosen from the deck that was expected. This is Putin’s first signal: he does not listen to anyone, he decides everything himself behind closed doors. Fradkov is a much more technical, dependent and non-public politician than Mikhail Kasyanov. Maybe this non-publicity is what impresses Putin with him. Most likely, he will command the economy in the style of “order given - report received.” The second signal is that although Fradkov is an international trader and an insurer, he is known more as a tax specialist. And it is difficult to perceive this as anything other than a message about strengthening fiscal elements in the economy. Fradkov is not part of the security forces, but he has never been a liberal and is being integrated into the system of strict economic management. It can be assumed that priority in the economy will now be given not to growing wool, but to cutting it. The era of liberalism is over, the era of production fades into the background, and the era of collecting and spending on non-economic needs comes to the fore: state, social, defense.
Maxim DIANOV, director of the Institute of Regional Problems:
- According to Russian tradition, no one was chosen, not only from the top ten, but even from the top twenty candidates discussed. Assumptions were made that a candidate for a security official would be proposed, and Fradkov, in a certain sense of the word, can be considered one, given the position of head of the tax police. At the same time, Fradkov has been a member of the government since the early 90s in positions related specifically to the economic bloc. I think that the decision to appoint Fradkov was prepared by Putin a long time ago and the opportune moment was simply chosen. After March 14, this figure would have been discussed much more aggressively, because with such an appointment Putin is taking a step towards the West. After all, Fradkov was involved in foreign economic relations and knows the situation in the CIS countries very well.
Igor BUNIN, director of the Center for Political Technologies:
- Putin is interested in the new government being more presidential, and the prime minister not having his own political face. Mikhail Fradkov will be a much more technical prime minister than Mikhail Kasyanov, who over the past four years has become politicized, began to object to the president, and argue with him on principle. In addition, Fradkov will not pretend to be a successor.
The next presidential term will be very difficult. It will be necessary to make many unpopular decisions: on administrative reform, on reform of law enforcement agencies, on mortgages, on housing and communal services. Putin needed a person who would take responsibility for all these unpopular reforms, a person who could be sacrificed. In the person of Fradkov, the president received a prime minister who does not belong to his inner circle and may be “bedroomed” in the future. At the same time, he is equally compatible with the security forces and economists, can be a compromise figure between various factions within the administration, and it will always be possible to distance oneself from him if economic problems arise. Recorded by Natalia ROZHKOVA, Daria GUSEVA |
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