| Governors won elections before voting In terms of predictability, the gubernatorial elections, which will be held on March 14, are quite comparable to the presidential ones. Of the ten regions, only three - Arkhangelsk, Ryazan and Voronezh regions - remain minimally intrigued two days before the elections. In the Altai and Krasnodar territories, Murmansk, Chita and Kaluga regions, Udmurtia and the Koryak Autonomous Okrug, the positions of the current governors are quite stable, and election competitors have minimal chances of winning.
If we remember that the situation was approximately the same three months ago, when more than a dozen regional heads were also elected along with State Duma deputies, we can say that the irremovability of regional leaders has become a fact. Today, the issue of the leadership of the region is decided not so much during elections, but during pre-election consultations between political forces. Even in those few territories where power changed, the winner was usually known long before voting day.
So, if the situation does not change, then in 2007-2008, when most regional leaders’ last term in power expires, the change will occur almost painlessly. New leaders in most cases will be determined during, so to speak, a “zero reading” - by agreement between regional and federal authorities. Moreover, since a new president will be elected during the same period, the advantage will go to the regions.
However, this is a matter for the future; for now, the current governors are concerned not so much with the elections themselves, but with voter turnout. A little paradox: in those regions where the governors have already solved their problems and there is no intrigue, the turnout is expected to be higher than in those where there is a real struggle.
In the Altai Territory, this can be explained not only by administrative resources, but also by the fact that the second most popular here is Mikhail Evdokimov, a well-known master of the conversational genre, who can gain up to 10% of the votes in elections. Nevertheless, the elections here will be held in one round, allowing the current governor, Alexander Surikov, to retain his powers. He also has a “understudy” just in case - a representative of the local branch of Rodina, Vladimir Nikulin, famous for his love of the “dead water” theory. This candidate distinguished himself by filing a lawsuit against Evdokimov in the regional court for the fact that “during the election campaign, programs and films with his participation were shown on central channels.”
The leader of the gubernatorial race in Murmansk remains the current head of the region, Yuri Evdokimov. Moreover, over the past two weeks his rating has grown even more. None of the other candidates clear the “against everyone” threshold. But approximately every tenth resident of the region cannot decide on a candidate, and the proportion of these does not decrease as the elections approach. This week, rumors again appeared in the region that they want to take the governor to Moscow for a ministerial post. But such rumors appear in Murmansk every six months. And they will not prevent Evdokimov from being re-elected for the next term.
The current President of Udmurtia, Alexander Volkov, is now going through hard times. Analysts state that as a result of the TNK-BP merger and the change of owners at Belkamneft, the republic lost influence on the oil production industry and reduced budget revenues. Nevertheless, Volkov did not have any real rivals in the elections who promised to correct the situation.
The governor of the Krasnodar Territory , Alexander Tkachev, has no rivals at all, although in addition to him, three more candidates are represented on the ballot. However, all of them are little-known people and work in government agencies. State Duma deputy Oleg Mashchenko, elected from the Krasnodar Territory on the lists of the Rodina bloc, announced his desire to participate in regional elections. However, the election commission refused to register Mashchenko due to irregularities in the paperwork when paying the deposit, as well as due to the fact that more than forty percent of the signatures were invalid.
Ten candidates “led” by the current governor Vladimir Loginov, who is supported by United Russia, are vying for the post of governor of the Koryak Autonomous Okrug . United Russia will also support the governor of the Chita region, Ravil Geniatulin, but he is already considered one of the most popular politicians in the region. The governor of the Kaluga region, Anatoly Artamonov, made the first experience of creating a special economic zone in the city of Obninsk and friendship with the Kremlin the strong point of his election campaign.
Since big business is excluded from the decision-making process at the federal level, it “descends” into regional politics. At the same time, “local business people” appear in the regions. The most striking example of this from the current series of elections is the situation in the Arkhangelsk region , where the alternative to the current governor was the local oligarch Vladimir Krupchak. State Duma deputy Vladimir Krupchak was even expelled from United Russia for excessive election activity (although he remained a member of the faction). As a result, 11 days before the elections, Krupchak withdrew his candidacy. Now the second place in popularity in the region among candidates for the gubernatorial post is also taken by Nikolai Kiselyov, a United Russia sympathizer, who unites the entire “multi-system opposition” of the region. Behind it, in particular, stands the region's small and medium-sized businesses. Moreover, during a recent visit to the region by the head of the Central Election Commission, Alexander Veshnyakov, campaigners noted his “goodwill” towards Mr. Kiselyov. Since the campaign in the region looks clearly “anti-Efremov,” sociologists are predicting a second round of elections, in which Anatoly Efremov and Nikolai Kiselyov with approximately the same rating will now appear.
In the Ryazan region, Governor Vyacheslav Lyubimov is going to the polls for the third time. As reported at the headquarters of the head of the region, the local branch of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation announced its support. His competition is from the former commander of the Airborne Forces, State Duma deputy from the Rodina electoral bloc, Colonel General Georgy Shpak. According to Rodintsy, the party did not officially support Mr. Shpak due to disagreements within the organization. It became even more dangerous to express one’s opinion when rumors appeared that the main rival was now supported by the minister, the head of the government apparatus, Dmitry Kozak, and Shpak himself was counting on the still acting deputy of the presidential administration, Vladislav Surkov. Lyubimov’s second competitor is Igor Morozov, State Duma deputy, first-time United Russia member, and former senator from the Ryazan legislative corps. A month before the voting date, the regional branch of United Russia, at a specially convened extraordinary meeting of the political council, expressed support for the tandem Vladimir Putin - Igor Morozov, which gives Mr. Morozov additional chances.
Morozov and Shpak are fighting for the role of the main competitor of the current governor. This is the only region where the likelihood of a change in the head of administration is quite high.
In the Voronezh region, among the six registered candidates there is also the current head of administration Vladimir Kulakov, who is running for a second term. Although its popularity in the region is small, it still has no competitors. According to polls, City Duma deputy Galina Kudryavtseva follows the governor. Supporters of the current governor include service workers, government employees, security officials and students. Those whose financial situation is poor or poor, as well as those employed in industry and agriculture, are ready to vote for Kudryavtseva. In the event of a second round, the probability of which in this situation is high, Kulakov’s chances become somewhat lower. Daria GUSEVA |
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