Translated material
Elections: encephalogram
Elections: encephalogram
Publication date: March 14, 2004
Publication date: March 14, 2004
1. Will public policy in Russia continue after March 14?
2. What are the main problems that the new (old) president must solve in the next four years in domestic politics, economics and international relations?
3. What claims can be made against the current political regime? Do you foresee the emergence of a NEW opposition in the next four years?
4. What will be the role of the media in the next four years?
Maxim Sokolov, columnist for the Izvestia newspaper,
does not consider March 14 as some kind of milestone in Russian politics. In his opinion, there will be no serious changes. The upcoming vote will also not affect the position of the opposition. “I can’t understand at all ,” said Mr. Sokolov, “ what could happen tomorrow that could change sustainable development trends.” Political and economic problems will remain the same.
Denis Dragunsky, editor-in-chief of Cosmopolis magazine,
quoted the writer Boris Dyshlenko: “The new government with its previous composition has begun to implement policies.” In the opinion of Denis Dragunsky, the main problem for the newly elected president will be the problem of poverty. In second place is the problem of corruption and relations with the “gray zone” in general. This includes crime, terrorism and illegal migration.
Tax collection will also pose a major challenge for the newly elected president. The share of wages in GDP should rise to 70% instead of today's 30%. Cardinal problems like the choice between the Swedish and American models of capitalism will no longer have to be resolved, everything has “settled down.” “I don’t expect any disruptions in politics,” Mr. Dragunsky emphasizes.
The question of the fate of the opposition in the next four years is open. In any case, it must exist. “If there is no opposition, we will have to invent it,” says RZh’s interlocutor. Opponents of power in civilized countries are not a horde seeking to overthrow the ruler from the throne, but a necessary element of the political system.
Apparently, the left-wing, social-democratic opposition will be most noticeable in the period 2004-2008. The authorities themselves will undertake to carry out the liberal course.
The role of the media will not change. Those negative trends that are taking place today will gradually dissipate.
Radik Batyrshin, head of the Internet broadcasting directorate of VGTRK,
noted that “only Putin knows Putin’s tasks.” “What has happened in our country over the past three weeks,” says Mr. Batyrshin, “ shows that in our country there is only one center of power - Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin.”
First of all, the new president will have to solve the problem of the so-called “bureaucratic revolution”, which a minority of bureaucrats is carrying out against the majority of them. The question is how to make this process effective, because democracy since Soviet times has largely worked only for itself. The fight against the dominance of bureaucracy will contribute to the democratization of the country.
The main direction of the government’s policy, in R. Batyrshin’s opinion, should be the fight against poverty, since “any trip outside the Moscow Ring Road indicates that the country is living poorly.”
One of the problems of the new president will be balancing between the new elites that have emerged over the previous four years.
Dmitry Bykov , writer, journalist,
I remembered how I once asked Victor Pelevin: “Is there an afterlife?” Pelevin, without hesitation, replied: “Yes, and there is none here.” It’s the same with public policy after the elections: it will continue to the extent that it exists now.
According to Mr. Bykov, one of the main problems of today's Russia is the steady deterioration in the quality of life in all spheres: economic, moral, everyday life... However, RZh's interlocutor suspects that the favorite in the presidential race sees his main task not as counteracting this process, but to hide, obscure it. The favorite, according to Bykov, intends to slow down history as much as possible - while it should be accelerated and spurred on as much as possible. “The faster GDP grows, the slower history will move.”
A new opposition, D. Bykov believes, will definitely arise: opposition is equal to action. The question is whether it will be legal. If not, it’s sad: in underground conditions, at the level of Internet forums, everything will inevitably become deformed, and the opposition will have a pitiful, “crushed” appearance. If yes, there will be reasons for optimism. In a public discussion, it is somehow more difficult to call each other idiots and punch each other in the face. It is possible that the “Glazyevites” and the “Khakamadians”, abstracting from their minor right-left differences, will create a single bloc of truly smart and bright politicians.
The role of the press, Mr. Bykov is sure, will increase enormously. In the 70s, the most interesting thing to read was the newspaper “Abroad”. Something was always happening abroad: travel, scientific discoveries, loud scandals. So we will begin to read articles about the lives of celebrities and gossip columns with the same growing interest. The country's golden pens will be forced to master this genre niche - or change their profession. As for online media, they will turn into an analogue of Soviet samizdat and will begin to cultivate underground consciousness in its worst variants; According to our interlocutor, nothing good has ever come from samizdat.
Valery Hiltunen , international journalist
1. The word “public” has exactly two meanings - venality and transparency. In this sense, some of the public policies will most likely remain. Which of these girls - the right one or the slut - will pull the rope will, of course, still depend on our main rope walker, but by no means one hundred percent.
2. The previous presidential term was entirely devoted to clearing the rubble. In boxing terms, the president was trying to wave a rag over the head of a state that had been knocked down by corruption, organized crime and ochlocracy. Fortunately, rumors that it was a knockout turned out to be slightly exaggerated. A knockdown, of course, is also not very much joy, but you can still come to life after it. The state came to life. He begins to wave his fists again. The main thing is that its heavy artillery does not hit its own people - the skinny, puny, but nevertheless already emerging civil society, which has its own interests. Usually artillery hits its own without accepting or confusing call signs. Civil society is not nepotism, not crime and not ochlocracy. And certainly not slavery. The slaves are mute and therefore cannot give the correct signals - they only moo and be in distress.
3. The current regime is like Siamese twins, and, it seems, triplets - Soviet, post-Soviet and someone else, of not entirely clear meaning, which, moreover, has not yet fully identified itself. The situation is unique - this third one will have to undergo a live operation in order to finally dismember this miracle Yudo and, having said goodbye to his two-headed brother, continue to go on his own - with a vigorous foot...
4. In the next four years, the media will either die completely, choking in their own idiocy and corruption - and then, most likely, the newborn Gr. Ob., having tossed around without a rudder or sail, will also end up in a coffin. Or you will have to, no matter how difficult it is, make a turn on the march. In Russian fairy tales, the hero, of course, was first irrigated with dead water, probably for disinfection, but this process should not be delayed at all... Finding living water is more difficult - it does not respond to grimaces and howls... you will have to relearn. Among the former, before perestroika (there was, after all, there was the old Komsomolskaya Pravda!) and among those who were more successful in creation. Scandinavian television, by the way, is one of the most boring in the world, but at the same time it is extremely popular - and all because it keeps its finger on the pulse of any more or less useful public initiatives - and begins to bark violently in response to anyone’s attempts to shorten ordinary people.
Renata Galtseva, culturologist,
He sees the cause of Russia’s problems not in the offensive of security forces or persecution of the press. The mechanism for executing decisions does not work. The new president will have to do something about this. The appointment of Mikhail Fradkov as head of government also produces a contradictory impression. In the speeches of a person who is by no means from the first ranks of applicants for a high position, there is still the same “smooth writing” , glossiness that the previous government had.
The latest decisions of the Russian authorities are reminiscent of Gorbachev’s policy - “change everything without changing anything.” Alas, “the steam has gone to the whistle - a huge scope and a puny result.” It creates a feeling of idling. It would be highly undesirable for the next four years to continue the current trend.
Andrey Bystritsky, deputy. Chairman of VGTRK,
predicts changes in Russian public policy after Sunday's elections. She is already changing. It is concentrated at the regional level.
Among the problems that the future president will have to deal with, economic issues come first, in particular the development of the domestic market and reducing dependence on exports. It is possible to make progress in this area only with an effective legal system, which currently does not exist.
Claims for this and other reasons should be made not to the “regime”, but to the current Russian elite; the problem lies precisely in its, so to speak, quality, ability to act.
Olga Karabanova, director of the National Press Institute,
notes that the current government is trying to pursue a policy of democratization, but it is also impossible not to notice negative trends.
“I really hope that some kind of political decision will be made on privatization, denationalization of the media. This will force them to think about their readers and viewers.” Most of the media today are funded by the state; they have become part of the administrative resource, an instrument in the hands of local and federal authorities.
There is a draft presidential bill in the Duma that prohibits government agencies from creating and financing media outlets, with the exception of those necessary for reproducing official documents and those that have a social orientation. Everyone else should be “set free.” The market for printed products is oversaturated, less successful projects will disappear on their own.
One of the most serious problems is that our media promotes an easy, irresponsible life. In a country with a lot of social problems, it is necessary to affirm moral values.
Victor Matizen, film critic
1. Public policy in Russia will remain the same as it was.
2. As for domestic politics, this is a Chechen problem, and it is also in the economy. In international relations - accession to the European Union. Of course, we won’t have time to join, but we need to lead the country towards this.
3. A new opposition will arise at the end of the four-year term.
4. I don’t think that the role of the media will change much compared to the last two years. The authorities will “tame” the media. I don’t think that the opposition activities of the media will intensify. At the end of the four-year period, the information war will begin again.
Natalya Trauberg, publicist, translator
1. Will be saved. God is merciful, I think he will survive.
2. In international relations - so that things don’t get worse with other countries. There is no need to pretend to be a strong power for the sake of the interests of a few people. In domestic politics, the less it resembles the Soviet regime, the better, but in economics I don’t understand anything.
3. Yes. Over these 20 years, a huge number of people, the intelligentsia, have been “liberated” (internally liberated). Of course, there will be opposition, there will be many brave, honest and talented people.
4. I have been living for 75 years and have already gotten used to this in these products! And now I can open your magazine, for example, or some other one, and see something human; this is such a miracle.
Dmitry Lipskerov, novelist
1. Probably some parts will remain for now.
2. In our country, the president must solve internal economic problems so that he has international authority.
3. Yes. This will be a controlled pseudo-opposition, the shoots of which are already visible.
4. None. There will only be communication of the thoughts of the government and the presidential administration to the masses.
Alexey Slapovsky, novelist, television scriptwriter
1. There are so many different types of this public policy, it’s difficult for me to answer. The kind of public policy that is dear to me - a policy that expressed the real needs of people - I hope will be preserved. But I do hope so. We do not yet live in a country where we can start with the words “I am sure.”
2. In domestic politics - do everything possible so that our society becomes less corrupt, not so bound by the mutual responsibility of thieves. In economics there are two points that merge into one. The first is antimonopoly policy, reasonable and balanced. The second is the development of so-called small and medium-sized businesses. This again has to do with corruption. The average business is suffocating from an insane number of intermediaries. I won’t give examples; everyone knows them. Let's say pharmaceuticals.
International relations - there are many subtleties here. But there is such a thing - the image of the country. We often hear the slogan “We need a great Russia.” We need a normal Russia. I don't like the word "great". We are already in the 21st century. We need a normal society, normal people - and we will become a normal country. The same applies to our closest neighbors, the CIS. We are not an older brother, but a partner. We have the right to be considered a significant country, thanks to natural resources, for example. But we're normal. Let's be normal neighbors.
3. We desperately need the opposition. So as not to find yourself in a shameful situation. It is clear that the elections have already failed. Many people are to blame. There can now be two oppositions: right and left, and in the middle is the center. Our center is concave, that is, a swamp. Everything flows there. We have nowhere to go: we need both right and left serious opposition. Our sacred duty is to raise an alternative candidate.
4. Quite a lot of media live quite comfortably, including economically. The feeling is that the media will be pro-government, because this is a guarantee of stability. There is no need to expect opposition. I am a playwright, prose writer, screenwriter, I collaborate with television, with Channel 1. However, when I switch the buttons, I see channel 1 everywhere, the all-Union one. And a supposedly opposition channel is always an order. But, fortunately, in our time we will not be left without information. We have internet. True, this is 25% of Muscovites and 2.5% for the whole country, but still the fact that it exists is comforting.
Alexey Pankin, editor-in-chief of Sreda magazine,
believes that the key problems are located in the system of moral and ethical coordinates. However, to solve them, the country needs not technocratic managers, but leaders. The era of “normal politics” is coming, when inspiration will be in demand. What is the norm? The norm is when you can predict the actions of the authorities and plan your own existence in response. The norm is when citizens have the motivation to live on and feel part of their country. The norm is when there are “working” tasks, specific tasks that are understandable to every person. From what the president formulated, the task of doubling GDP is still somewhat abstract, but increasing the country’s competitiveness is a real challenge. People need stimulating challenges. But we have to get used to a lot, learn a lot again. We, Russians, are unfamiliar with such things; we do not think in terms of public interests. It’s wild for us to imagine that in paying taxes, for example, there is a benefit, that this is really necessary for those same pensioners, and not for feeding government officials.
One of the most important problems of the second term is the establishment of a normal political process. But to ensure it, two things are necessary: the emergence of competing parties and the training of leaders, their cultivation. We currently do not have such mechanisms, we do not have the environment, prerequisites, or conditions. The old factor is still at work: coincidence.
After being elected for a second term, the president must finally feel like a president, understand that the time for the “policy of advances” has passed, the preparation period is over, and he will have to get rid of complexes - uncertainty, fear, fear.
The media space is entering a period of serious tests of “authenticity.” There are several key issues here related to the previous step.
Firstly, an important law on advertising was adopted, which knocked out the foundation from under the black money. Now white advertising has become economically profitable, because... These investments pay for the cost of production - a truly revolutionary thing. Secondly, the TV system was built entirely according to the pattern of the Yeltsin era, when it was believed that Yeltsin would never leave, hatred of him would grow, and a strong enemy would arise that would have to be broken.
Now these false premises have been exhausted, and the machine works according to the old pattern. The result is a farce.
It’s a paradox, but we don’t have a law on TV. Adopting it is a completely practical task and can be solved on several levels: distribution and limitation of broadcast frequency; control and differentiation of TV mechanisms - public and state, public and private.
And finally, thirdly, there is the problem of discrediting dependent media. Normal media requires qualified personnel. Therefore, the most relevant topic is education. In addition, in the next four years, the process of closing the subsidized press will begin, which will entail the release of "old personnel". There will be many journalists on the street. It is necessary to provide for this situation and develop retraining programs, adaptation to new conditions. Thus, the arrangement of a new media market should begin.
Manana Aslamazyan, CEO of the Internyus Public Non -Profit Organization,
I would like the new president to pay special attention to charity issues, which in itself can solve a lot of real problems. Moreover, without total control by officials. The president must trust civil society, no matter how weak it may seem to him.
"I would like the administration to stop total control over the media, they should only depend on the opinion of the audience. The state should have no more than one national newspaper and the channel." It is necessary to achieve transparency of the media, in particular on the question of who owns them. This is a global practice - the media should not concentrate in the hands of financial groups close to the authorities.
Claims to current authorities can be presented about their excessive suspicion, distrust of civil society, the desire to solve everything by ourselves, disrespectful attitude to the election institution. The most important issues should be the subject of open discussion, not backstage maneuvers. The selective attitude of the current government to the law is noteworthy. The law should be one for everyone, otherwise it ceases to act.
Modest Kolrov, editor -in -chief of REGNUM,
Among the problems that are faced with the new president, first of all, he calls the creation of a new executive system, both at the federal and regional levels. Today we are dealing with the sabotage of the tasks set by the head of state. Without solving this problem, integration into the world competitive environment is impossible. The disadvantages of the existing system of power include excessive compromise in the case of reform.
In addition, it is necessary to pay attention to the strengthening of borders, strengthen the role of Russia in international organizations and a policy in the near abroad.
Maxim Amelin, poet, commercial director of the Symposium publishing house,
He believes that public policy after March 14 will remain, but only in the form of a certain Atavism. Its full coagulation is hardly possible. "Otherwise, the West will not understand, and for the Promotion you need some parties."
One of the central problems for the newly elected president will be joint work with the Duma. Many laws have not been adopted. In particular, there is no law on the inheritance, Soviet norms are still in force. The copyright situation is unclear.
The opposition, of course, will undergo certain metamorphoses, so it always happens after the election. However, people will remain the same there. The left opposition, apparently, will be more active than the Democrats. The latter is unlikely to be able to unite due to personal disagreements.
The media will continue to put pink glasses in our eyes, distract from sad thoughts.
Elena Petrovskaya, culturologist
1. It is not entirely clear where the place of this policy is, and what exactly is meant. In the sporadic form in which the emotions of certain groups of the population are spilled out, everything will seem to be preserved. But if we are talking about civil society, I'm afraid there are still no prospects for its appearance.
2. A question worthy of any presidential candidates ... However, priorities are quite obvious. This is the termination of the war in Chechnya by providing real autonomy of the latter; reorientation of the economy from raw material to producing; An attempt to achieve a good voice in international politics, including at the expense of new (regional) alliances. And of course, the respect of the law is an unprecedented thing for Russia - primarily from those who create it.
3. The current political regime everywhere uses a conspiracy strategy. The logic of his actions is difficult to restore. Even the appointment to state posts takes place according to the same scheme of the special services: Surely they will appoint someone whom no one expects. It is extremely difficult to talk about the appearance of the opposition - it is not clear who can make her backbone, who will arrange her institutionally.
4. Judging by the development trends of television over the past two years, we will have more entertainment programs and unified news. Unfortunately, for a critical statement on television there is no longer a place. As for a professional statement. As for newspapers, they mainly reflect financial interests, on them you can complicate the movement of oil and other capital. The media, alas, do not inspire big hopes here. It may make sense to rely on professional communities.
Eduard Steiner, correspondent of the newspaper "Standard",
As a priority, the new president calls the fight against poverty. He refers to a VTsIOM survey, during which it turned out that this particular problem is most of all worried about Russians.
The problem of establishing the situation in the field of justice is no less relevant. According to Western political scientists, before developing democracy, it is necessary to take care of creating an elementary legal framework for this.
As for the freedom of speech, there is an unambiguous direction - "strangle" . This is especially noticeable in the example of television. Apparently, now the turn of the press will come. Newspapers do not have such an influence as television, so their hands did not immediately reach them.
The opposition in the next four years is unlikely to be able to consolidate. The liberals are generally a big problem. The old figures of the liberal movement lost their significance as a result of endless internal conflicts. "Committee -2008" is not very serious. The problem is also in the support of the authorities to almost the entire opposition camp. Russia needs a real opposition.
Eduardo Gedash, Portuguese correspondent "Zhornal de Notsiash",
One of the main tasks for the new president considers the fight against corruption. In addition, the problem of Chechnya has not yet been resolved. Stimulation of economic growth also remains on the agenda, since the living conditions of the population leave much to be desired.
The situation with freedom of speech in the next four years can be complicated. Already now almost everything is under control. Pressure on the media can be exerted in different ways. Of course, it will not be censorship, but reasons can always be found.
The Russian opposition is small and unorganized today. Politics has a single -polarity, and the situation is unlikely to change.
Natalya Ivanova, literary critic, publicist,
Extremely criticizes the political system in the country. After the opaque decisions for the whole society about the resignation of the government, a poorly played performance with pre -prepared and signed appointments, a brilliant victory in the election of the main candidate, inauguration in even more imperial, Mikhalkovo style - what transparency can we talk about? The archetype of the behavior of our power remains closed, society should not put up with this.
The new political opposition will be collected from the old one, "like puddles after rain." The rage of opposition figures today is genuine. They feel that they were beaten.
The new president will have the task of remaking the raw material foundation of the economy into a producing one. Putin is such a pinochet that liberals dreamed about ten years ago.
Sergey Volkov, historian, publicist
1. Public policy will remain.
2. The main thing in domestic policy is the reform of the country's administrative -territorial division, as well as the elimination of regional barons and, accordingly, a huge bureaucratic state. In the economy, it is necessary to develop small and medium -sized businesses - instead of the current oligarchy. In particular, you need a sharp increase in progressive tax on super -income tax. And, as far as possible, the elimination of corruption is generally possible. In international affairs, more decisive positioning in the external arena is required, this applies primarily to relations with the EU and the structures similar to it that interferes more than help.
3. The main claim is the inexhaustible spiritual connection of the Putin regime and Putin personally with advice. We now have the emanation of the Soviet system in its worst manifestations, and Putin’s economic creeps are most reminiscent of NEP. There can be no free economy when supporting the ideological and political foundations of the Soviet regime. The current president is the successor of the Soviet Union, and not to Russia, no matter what trinkets he would hang on.
Perhaps in the coming years a new right -wing opposition will be formed, which will be less ridiculous than the ATP completely discredited by the behavior of its leaders. And there will definitely be the left opposition, which is now formed around Glazyev.
4. In the media, the new opposition will just ripen, and it is in paper, and not in electronic ones. Already, most politically oriented newspapers are in opposition. They do not have such an influence as television, but it is in this area that the factor of consolidation of society should arise.
Dmitry Galkovsky, writer, philosopher,
He believes that public policy will remain in approximately the same form as now. No special political and economic problems need to be solved. Everything has already been decided. There are no complaints either - everything is clear. There was no opposition either. The opposition needs a reason. But there are no reasons. And the media will be the same as before.
Svetlana Vasilenko, prose writer
1. There is no public policy now, and, probably, the same situation will be further.
2. There is the main task - to create civil society. We see what is happening in Spain after terrorist attacks - and the complete absence of reaction with us. In addition, it is necessary to create a middle class. How to do this is a question rather to economists and politicians.
3. The main claim is the closeness of power for society, the clanity of the power that now controls the state. We do not know how decisions are made, we do not participate in the political life of the country. That is, we remain third -party observers in the theater of political actions.
The emergence of a new opposition is possible, moreover, I think this will happen rapidly. Already in April-March, a new, united and more powerful party will arise on the basis of the former democratic parties. This is necessary for intelligentsia, democratically configured people who now have their representation in the Duma or nowhere. We seem to be stunned by the shafts, but soon the situation should change.
4. It is difficult to say what the role of the media will be, especially after the emergence of two ministries of the Three -headed monster - the Ministry of Culture and Information on the basis of two ministries. One thing is clear: that the media will be very bad, many will close, and the new opposition publications if they arise, it is semi -footing.
Konstantin Polivanov, Philologist, Associate Professor GU-SHE
1. I'm not sure that today there is a public policy in Russia. In order for the policy to be public, the society should be able to know not only about distant and vague or super -hairedly formulated purposes of politics like “continue reforms”, “engage in social sphere” or “fight corruption”, but about the sequence of specific steps for which are supposed The same specific results.
2. I think the newly elected president will encounter the same problems that he faces now. However, in the absence of public policy, only the presidential candidate himself can know about this.
3. For the appearance of this influential opposition, the emergence of a program of specific actions to change the most diverse spheres of government relations with society, economics, again with the prediction of steps and results that could be consciously supported by voters. It will be or not in the next 4 years - it is difficult to say.
4. I would like to hope that the situation is fundamentally not worsening, but to rely on the best is the law of human nature.
Semyon Faybisovich, artist, essayist,
He believes that public policy is no longer and is not expected. "Putin is like Tanitolkay: wants to create a modern economy, and the KGBIST past pulls it back." The main complaint to the current regime is the destruction of freedoms, the main task is to restore these freedoms, at least in the form in which they were before Putin came to power. Moreover, there are no special hopes either for the emergence of a new opposition, nor on the change in the current position of the media, which are already strictly placed on the rank.
Andrey Vasilevsky, critic, editor -in -chief of New World magazine,
Notes among the tasks of the "second period": further strengthening of sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity of the Russian Federation; reform of local self -government; the fight against poverty, not the poor; Strengthening of Russian centrism in domestic and foreign policy. The new/old president will have to in the very near future or find a way to rescue two Russian citizens from Qatari dungeons (where, in recent reports , they can be tortured), or give Katar a very cruel lesson, so that no one would have been to anyone ... Everything that is all that is that everything that was The federal government will undertake in connection with Qatari events, will be of fundamental importance - and not one year ahead. A new law on the media is also necessary, not only governing the relations of journalistic groups and media owners, but also providing the right of citizens of the Russian Federation to receive reliable information, to protect their private life from the press interference, etc.
Dmitry Kuznets, deputy. editor -in -chief of the Russian edition of Newsweek magazine,
He believes that the public policy after the election will remain in the same cut -out form in which it exists today. Now we have only one public politician.
The newly elected president will arise the problem of continuing reforms, actually curled by 2002. It is not known whether Putin wants to exchange his popularity for painful reforms. First of all, it is necessary to resolve the issue with not secured by financing bills adopted by the Duma. In addition, it is time to reform Gazprom, which will lead to an increase in gas prices, including for ordinary consumers.
The opposition will have a marginal character up to the 2007 parliamentary elections. There is no need to expect any changes here.
The situation with the freedom of the media has developed alarming. On television, freedom as such is absent, there is a preliminary self -censorship. The regional press is subjected to censorship by local authorities. In the central press, things are better - there is no serious pressure. Apparently, this is caused by its lower significance.
Sergey Sokolov, editor -in -chief of the magazine "COSTMAT",
It recalls that many economists predict the failures that we still avoided thanks to the notorious high oil prices. Over the past four years, breakthroughs in the economy have not occurred.
The widely advertised administrative reform ended only with a reduction in ministers that control financial flows. Putin appointed 17 looking at the government. Moreover, the former ministers remained the heads of federal agencies, only a change of signs occurred.
Corruption will be driven into the shadow, or you will have to give up to eat officials. No serious parties will arise, they will gradually forget about United Russia.
Evgeny Saburov, Director of the Institute of Investment Problems,
He notes that the situation in Russia is changing towards the increasingly closed politics. Trends in the restoration of the Soviet past are noticeable, but it is impossible to talk about the complete coagulation of public policy. It will remain, but the level of issues discussed will be lower.
The main problem for the newly elected president will be reforms in the social sphere. The need for their own authorities has been announced more than once. This is primarily housing and communal services, mortgages, pension problems, health and education.
The transparent sector of the economy is reduced today. Such a development of events is also facilitated by “raids” for oil workers. Money from profitable industries is pumped to the budget. We are waiting for the "Swedish trap" when the majority of the population lives at the expense of the budget and opposes any reform. The "translucent" sector of the economy, small business, is developing, but does not increase tax revenues.
The left opposition based on state employees will require increasing budget expenditures. The right, the basis of the electorate of which is made up of people from industry and business, will resist dispossession. The opposition will be able to unite only when it is not economic, but political goals. However, this scenario is unlikely.
Igor Shaitanov, literary critic
1. It is difficult to say, most likely the significance of public policy will decrease for some time.
2. Problems remain old. They have not changed from the fact that the elections were passed. New political ideas should enable a new standard of living.
3. There will be attempts to create, they are already there, but how successful it is - time will tell.
4. The role of television can be reduced for some period if the pressure does not stop. The role of newspapers will increase. Finally, we will have an intellectual press. Newspapers are used to working extensive. Они работают по принципу: как можно больше читательского внимания. Но глубины нет. Успех газет сейчас зависит именно от глубины.
Эрих Соловьев, философ, культуролог
1. Я склонен ответить - нет, публичной политики не будет. Политические партии делаются ненужными.
2. Президенту придется решать социальные проблемы, те, которые коммунистическая оппозиция ставила во главу угла.
3. Основная претензия - неустраняемая бедность. Оппозиция будет иметь экономический характер.
4. СМИ станут средством развлечения. Никакой серьезной функции, никаких серьезных задач они выполнять не будут.
Светлана Неретина, историк философии
1. Вопрос публичности. Титул "президент" преобразуется во что-то совсем другое, например в "авторитарный правитель".
2. Это и есть главная проблема.
3. Новой оппозиции не возникнет. Новая оппозиция должна возникнуть в новой среде, а не в той накипи, которую мы наблюдаем сегодня. Новая оппозиция должна использовать старые интеллектуальные запасы, например запас диссидентов, который не использовался с горбачевских времен.
4. Роль СМИ - подстраиваться под официальную политику и кое-где вставлять шпильки.
Екатерина Деготь, арт-критик
1. Сохранится ли публичная политика - это вопрос, на который я сейчас затрудняюсь ответить.
2. Надо решить проблему интеграции России в мировое сообщество и проблему войны в Чечне.
3. Мои главные претензии к нынешнему режиму относятся к ряду эпизодов, когда общество могло подозревать власть в манипуляции терроризмом в политических целях. Это прежде всего "Норд-Ост".
Что касается новой оппозиции, то для возникновения реальной политической силы я не вижу материальной, финансовой базы. Ни здесь, ни на Западе. Остается надеяться на общественную оппозицию: она может образоваться при голосовании за новую Конституцию, которая, видимо, будет нам предложена.
4. Изменится ли роль СМИ - зависит во многом как раз от них. Они сами загнали себя в то положение, в котором сейчас находятся, и сами могут попытаться что-то исправить. Большие надежды я возлагаю на интернет, где свобода сохраняется в наибольшей степени.
Vl. Новиков, литератор, профессор факультета журналистики МГУ
1. Сохранится - как минимум в ее нынешнем театрализованном варианте. Но позволительно помечтать и о максимуме - о появлении политика не играющего, а действующего, представляющего интересы реальной социальной группы, в частности той, к которой принадлежу и я. Пока у меня лично такого политика нет.
2. Заложить основы эффективной, созидательной (а не только торгово-сырьевой) экономики. Дать труженикам-бюджетникам (здравоохранение, образование, культура) зарплату, соответствующую социальной значимости их труда. Добиться утверждения статуса России в мировом сообществе как самодостаточной и влиятельной силы.
3. Претензии: равнодушие к имущественному положению граждан. Отношение к коррупции как к норме социальной жизни. Неоправданный дисбаланс между доходами государства и оплатой труда.
4. Надеюсь, сохранятся независимые СМИ, способные отстоять необходимый уровень гласности. Главная опасность для журналистов - лавирование между властными и олигархическими структурами, превращение в политтехнологов низшего звена. Идеальное предназначение СМИ - быть формой гражданского общества (других форм у нас просто нет). Идеал осуществим - для тех, кто деньги считает для себя не первой, а второй жизненной ценностью.
Анатолий Азольский, прозаик
1. Публичная политика в России сохранится и будет всегда - в том или ином виде.
2. Главная задача президента - сделать так, чтобы люди с охотой работали. Everyone is in their place.
3. Претензий к режиму - никаких, он соответствует времени, другого нам сейчас не дано. Новая оппозиция, возможно, возникнет, но она должна быть основана не на ценностях либерального Запада, а на чем-то своем, внутреннем. Необходимо по-настоящему услышать, чего хочет народ.
4. Роль СМИ будет прежней, видимо, они будут несколько ущемлены в правах, потому что пора понять, что свобода слова - это и свобода самоограничения.