| A dangerous power vacuum has formed in Chechnya While Moscow experts were vigorously discussing the possibility of introducing direct presidential rule in Chechnya, the president himself was exercising this rule. Yesterday morning, Vladimir Putin flew to Grozny to talk with the surviving Chechen leadership and military commanders. This was his third blitz visit to Chechnya. The first two took place while active hostilities were still going on.
“Something is being done, but from a helicopter it looks terrible.”
The current trip was no less, and maybe even more alarming: it turned out that active hostilities were still going on, that the enemy, repeatedly declared surrounded and scattered, was able to hit even the most protected targets. Instead of the expected pleasant gift for the inauguration and Victory Day in the form of the surrendered (or at least liquidated) President of Ichkeria Aslan Maskhadov, Vladimir Putin received a terrible and daring warning - the main stronghold of federal power in Chechnya, Akhmat Kadyrov, was killed.
It was around Kadyrov - and in many ways by Kadyrov himself - that the entire system of local civil power was constructed over the past four years. Kadyrov, demonstrating loyalty to the Kremlin and receiving complete carte blanche from it, truly became the real Chechen power. Now President Putin flew to see what was left of this government when Akhmat Kadyrov passed away.
It seems that what he saw allowed Putin to conclude that it was possible to do without significant changes in Chechnya. That is, do not introduce any special regimes, do not transfer additional troops, but simply regroup the remaining personnel reserves, strengthen the local Ministry of Internal Affairs by 1,125 people and “come to grips with the restoration of Grozny.”
The President flew over the city and shared his impressions: “Something is being done, but from a helicopter it looks terrible.” Having learned that Grozny, it turns out, is still in ruins, Vladimir Putin immediately instructed Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov to form a working group of representatives of federal ministries and departments of Russia and send it to the republic to discuss issues of assistance to Chechnya on the spot. “I think it would be right if this group is headed by one of the ministers of the economic bloc, maybe the head of the Ministry of Economic Development (German Gref - Ed.), because these are mainly issues of a socio-economic nature,” the president noted.
Apparently, the system for restoring the Chechen economy will once again be radically changed. But they promised not to change the general political course. “No one should have any doubt that the basic conditions for the restoration of Chechnya - the power component, legal and organizational - are so fundamental that no one will be able to reverse this matter,” concluded Vladimir Putin.
“External control” will not be introduced in Chechnya
Putin’s statement follows quite consistently and logically from all the Kremlin’s previous steps towards a Chechen settlement. The final decision to create full-fledged regional authorities in Chechnya in the image and likeness of other federal subjects was made more than two years ago. According to this logic, the federals should have gradually shifted the main concerns about Chechen stability to the republican authorities. This concerned not only civil administration, but also the “operational part”. The continuation of the war (even under the pseudonym “counter-terrorism operation”) of the regular Russian army against the separatists was becoming too unpopular. It was time to transform the war into an operation by local police against “scattered handfuls of militants.”
This is what Akhmat Kadyrov did, creating and strengthening the republican Ministry of Internal Affairs and his security service. For this purpose, a draft republican constitution was written and adopted. For this purpose, Akhmat Kadyrov was elected president - with the active support of the Kremlin, which actually removed all his more or less influential competitors from the race.
To change the “general line” after the assassination of Kadyrov, to abandon the idea “peace in Chechnya is the business of the Chechens themselves,” to introduce the post of “governor general” from outside instead of the post of president from “locals”—all this for the Kremlin would mean admitting that it was wrong and weakness. In this case, the entire political process would have to start all over again - and Russia simply does not have time left for this in Chechnya.
It is hardly possible to roll back the political settlement and return to a complete purge. It will simply not be possible to end another series of war, because after it no one will believe in any conciliation procedures, elections or referendums - not only in Chechnya, but throughout the entire North Caucasus.
This means that the Kremlin has only one choice: to work with what is left until the new presidential elections. And with those who remained.
Replace the irreplaceable
This work will be difficult and unsafe. Kadyrov’s excessive independence in the last year and a half in itself began to turn into a big problem for the Kremlin, but after his death it became too clear that there is no one to replace him today.
The chairman of the Chechen government, Sergei Abramov, will have to act as president until the next elections. He headed the Chechen cabinet less than two months ago and was supposed to become technical prime minister under a strong president. Kadyrov himself selected his candidacy, having previously gotten rid of three “inconvenient” prime ministers in a row in a year and a half. Meanwhile, any of them - the first post-war prime minister, the current head of the federal fishing agency Stanislav Ilyasov, and State Duma deputy Mikhail Babich, and the new deputy head of Gosstroy Anatoly Popov would look preferable in this place - simply due to greater experience. Mr. Abramov found himself in a completely unexpected role, and the president, who received him in the Kremlin directly on the day of the tragedy, could not help but notice how uncomfortable the new acting acting director felt.
However, recognizing the legal force of the Chechen Constitution, the feds cannot replace the prime minister with a simple reappointment. Formally, he must now resign only to the new president. And he will be chosen no earlier than the fall (see reference). But the Kremlin has a chance to help Sergei Abramov deal with Kadyrov’s cadres so that the maximum effect can be extracted from them or, at a minimum, not losing them to the opposition.
“Team Kadyrov” has already begun to be reshuffled. Yesterday, after a conversation with Vladimir Putin, members of the State Council elected a new chairman to replace Khusein Isaev, who died along with Akhmat Kadyrov. Now the State Council is chaired by one of Kadyrov’s most powerful and ambitious ministers, Taus Dzhabrailov, who in October commanded the chief’s election headquarters and then headed the Ministry of Nationalities of Chechnya, which was merged with the Ministry of Press and Information after the resignation of Bislan Gantemirov.
They also tried to neutralize the most potentially explosive “player” - the 23-year-old son of Akhmat Kadyrov, Ramzan, who heads the security service of the Chechen president. This unit was created with the permission and under the patronage of the federal intelligence services, but now it represents a completely independent force - it is at least 5 thousand well-trained and armed soldiers with many years of experience in fighting the federals. As long as power remained a family affair for Ramzan, there was no doubt about his trustworthiness. To preserve it in the future, he was given a presidential audience right on the day of his father’s death, and then appointed first deputy prime minister in the government. By the way, immediately before his death, Akhmat Kadyrov abolished all deputy prime minister positions.
At first glance, the favors had an effect: yesterday, in a series of interviews, Ramzan Kadyrov confirmed that he would be faithful to his father’s cause “as long as he is alive.” True, it is unknown whether he will be able to maintain control over his armed formations: after all, his authority for yesterday’s militants who came there was directly related to the authority of his father. Ramzan itself is very unpopular in Chechnya.
In addition to the security service, there are other Chechen formations that maintained conditional loyalty to the federals only in the existing system of relations, that is, when Kadyrov was alive. The Yamadayev brothers, a very ambitious Gudermes clan, have the most bayonets. True, the eldest of the brothers, former brigadier general of Ichkeria Khaled Yamadayev, has been sitting in the Russian State Duma since December and is unlikely to want to spoil his parliamentary career. Moreover, unlike the too young Ramzan, he has a chance to try his luck in the upcoming presidential elections.
However, besides the Yamadayevs, there are dozens of “middle-level” field commanders who “came out of the woods” under the personal guarantees of Akhmat Kadyrov and remain in a kind of legal shadow, not being amnestied and retaining their weapons. After the death of the “guarantor”, they may well return to their previous banners. Moreover, the liquidation of Akhmat Kadyrov itself could not but invigorate the supporters of the resistance.
Who should the Kremlin bet on?
But even if loyal militants can be retained, Chechnya will at least face a repeat of last year's summer escalation - in connection with the start of the next election campaign. True, by throwing out Kadyrov’s strongest rivals from the last elections, the Kremlin quite clearly demonstrated to them its political preferences. Therefore, Moscow entrepreneurs from the Dzhabrailov and Saidulayev families will think twice before investing their funds in the election race again. The only major participant in the last “race” who left the race quite peacefully and, as it were, even with a promotion, remains former State Duma deputy Aslambek Aslakhanov, now an adviser to the President of Russia. Besides him, the federals have the Zavgaev brothers in reserve: the old Chechen grievances against the last chairman of the Supreme Council of Checheno-Ingushetia, Doku Zavgaev, were so forgotten that he was even returned to Russia from an honorary diplomatic exile in Tanzania. His brother, former senator and now deputy from Chechnya Akhmar Zavgaev, has also not yet fully developed his political resource. The Zavgaevs’ loyalty to Russia leaves no doubt, and it would be much easier to manage them than the former separatist Kadyrov. Kadyrov's enemies will also return to the Chechen deck - the former mayor of Grozny, the eternal frontier Bislan Gantemirov and General of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Said-Selim Peshkhoev.
In any case, it is obvious that the Kremlin will not have a shortage of potential presidential candidates. Consequently, by the end of summer, last year’s election scenario - with the appearance of an alternative and a final decision at the very end - can be played out again. If only in the remaining 4 months it will be possible to maintain at least relative stability in the republic. Akhmat Kadyrov occupied too large a niche for his disappearance to be compensated by “perpetuating memory.”
... From now on, in Gudermes, instead of Vladimir Lenin Square, there will be Akhmat Kadyrov Square. Akhmat Kadyrov Square in Chechen politics is still empty.
Until autumn without a president
Despite the extensive gaps in the “post-war” Chechen legislation, the succession of presidential power is quite fully regulated in it. Including for extreme cases.
According to the constitution of Chechnya, any citizen of the Russian Federation at least 35 years old can be elected its president. He is elected for four years and cannot hold office for more than two consecutive terms.
The powers of the current President of Chechnya in the event of his death are terminated prematurely. His duties are temporarily performed by the head of government. In accordance with the law on presidential elections in Chechnya, which was adopted simultaneously with the constitution of the republic in a referendum on March 23 last year, new presidential elections must take place no later than 120 days after the termination of the powers of the previous president, that is, September 5, 2004.
The parliament must call presidential elections, but the parliament in Chechnya has not yet been elected. The functions of the State Council, which temporarily plays the role of a representative body of power in the republic, are mainly advisory and do not extend that far. According to the law on presidential elections in Chechnya, in the absence of parliament, the republican election commission must call elections. True, last time the date of the elections was determined by Vladimir Putin, and it is no secret that now the final word will remain with him, even if the formal decision is allowed to be made by the Chechen election commission. It must be adopted no later than 14 days after the termination of the powers of the former president, that is, before May 24.
The next president will take office 30 days after the Chechen election commission publishes the voting results, that is, no later than October 30, 2004. The parliamentary elections in Chechnya, which were planned to be scheduled for this fall, will now most likely be postponed again: there are no special requirements regarding the timing of their holding. Ivan SUKHOV |
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