| The crisis in the interbank market may hit small banks The situation in the interbank loan market, provoked by the stories of Sodbiznesbank (SBB) and Kredittrust, may end in a liquidity crisis for small banks. It is unclear whether the Central Bank is ready for this. First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Andrei Kozlov yesterday met with top managers of large banks and promised that the Central Bank will refinance market participants “in the amount they need.” However, interbank rates again reached 20% per annum, and many banks simply closed the limits on “small” counterparties.
According to Mr. Kozlov, “the situation with Sodbiznesbank caused a wave of nervousness,” and in the market “there were some urges to hesitate.” But “the Central Bank has not provoked such a situation and does not plan to provoke it,” and in general, according to the Central Bank’s estimates, the situation does not cause concern. Large banks (representatives of Alfa Bank, Rosbank, MDM Bank and others were present at the meeting) supported Mr. Kozlov and made it clear that everything was in order with liquidity. “When the margin is zero, there is simply no point in conducting transactions (on the interbank market. - Ed. ),” explained Oleg Kapitonov, Chairman of the Board of Absolut Bank, explaining the unprecedentedly low turnover on the interbank market.
Chairman of the Board of Rosbank Alexander Popov told the Vremya Novostey newspaper that at the meeting a lot was said “about expanding the instruments for refinancing banks,” since the list of assets for which the Central Bank provides loans, according to bankers, “still remains narrow.” “We support the actions of the Central Bank in terms of strengthening supervision; no fundamental reasons for the deterioration of the situation in the banking sector are visible even after the revocation of Sodbiznesbank’s license,” he noted.
However, another participant in the meeting with the first deputy chairman shared other considerations. “Banks are nervous because several negative trends appeared at once: the expected increase in Fed rates, and a new round of the YUKOS case, and Sodbiznesbank, and, finally, rumors about blacklists of banks suspected of laundering criminal proceeds,” said he wrote for the newspaper Vremya Novostei. However, he notes, the Central Bank openly says that there are no lists “and almost everyone understands this.” According to our interlocutor, large banks do not close limits on each other. This was confirmed by the chairman of the board of Probusinessbank, Alexander Zheleznyak: “Neither we ourselves nor the limits were closed on us,” he said and at the same time admitted that panic could not help but arise in the banking sector, and first of all this concerns “ interbank".
The market that has traditionally provided vital funds to "small" banks is no longer willing to give them money, at least not as cheaply as before. “The market is much more cautious in assessing the risks of second-round banks: large banks are reducing or completely closing limits, and the story with Sodbiznesbank obviously played a role here,” Sergei Monin, a member of the board of Raiffeisenbank, told the Vremya Novostei newspaper. According to his estimates, the spread between lending rates for large banks and “second circle banks” has increased from the usual 2-3 to 5-7% (for overnight loans). “If on Friday one-day loans were provided at 1.5-4% per annum, then on Monday the rate reached 7-12%,” says Mezhprombank dealer Armen Asaturyan. According to dealers, for small banks rates reached up to 20%; moreover, many now received money only on collateral, and some, apparently, could not borrow from colleagues at all. It is clear that this situation is beneficial to banks - creditors of the “interbank” market. “Perhaps some of them were supporting nervousness,” said one market participant.
What the Central Bank did at this time is unknown, but judging by the rise in rates, banks that did not have access to classic refinancing instruments have not yet felt any active assistance. “Under these conditions, three options are possible: everyone will calm down, the Central Bank will save everyone, or the liquidity crisis will kill a number of small banks,” says one of the dealers. However, this development of events may take the Bank of Russia by surprise, which had difficulty coping with the small SBB. “The Central Bank (in the case of Sodbiznesbank - Ed. ) has demonstrated its unpreparedness for a correct and timely reaction to what is happening in the banking system,” Deputy General Director of Interros, former First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Sergei said yesterday on Echo of Moscow. Aleksashenko. “The Central Bank lulled itself into thinking that everything was fine in the banking system over the past four to five years, when oil prices began to rise.”
Meanwhile, international experts do not see anything terrible if several small or weak banks leave the market. "We have to look at the situation in the context of the entire banking system," says Jonathan Schiffer, vice president of ratings agency Moody's. “The banking system of about a thousand banks is too large (to enter a crisis state. - Ed. ).” He is confident that over the coming years in Russia “the number of banks will decrease,” and for the banking system “it would be better to have a smaller number of credit institutions.” “We will closely monitor the funding conditions of Russian banks whose ratings we support,” said Standard & Poor's.
Yesterday, Chairman of the Board of Credit Trust Bank Alexander Timofeev and Bank President Alla Nizovtseva met with a group of depositors and clients. According to the bank's press secretary, Konstantin Drobyshev, by the end of the week a schedule of payments to creditors and depositors will be determined. And the Fitch agency at the end of the day announced a revision of the Kredittrust rating. Reacting to reports four days ago about the bank’s failure to fulfill an offer on bonds and termination of payments, Fitch experts assigned it default short-term and long-term ratings of D. Yuri VERETENNIKOV |
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