| Capital flight from Russia will not stop until property becomes a “sacred cow” It seems that the long-standing dream of Russian economists, including government economists, about changing the direction of capital movement will not come true for a long time. His flight from the country continues, and the reasons that would allow him to change the situation are not yet visible.
At least this is the conclusion that suggests itself after most of the speeches made yesterday in the Federation Council at a conference dedicated to the problem of capital flight from Russia.
It is noteworthy that, according to the organizers, the discussion should have been mainly about the reasons for the withdrawal of criminally acquired funds from the country, about how to combat the laundering of “dirty” money. However, priority, wittingly or unwittingly, was given to the problem of capital flight in general. And there was a reason for this - the obvious sharp intensification of this negative process in 2004. According to the Central Bank, in the first half of the year the net outflow of private capital from Russia amounted to $5.5 billion (during the entire last year $2.9 billion flowed out).
Moreover, this came as a surprise to the authorities. Back in March of this year, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin predicted a net capital inflow of $3--4 billion. However, according to experts, in reality much more money is leaving the country than the Central Bank estimates: in the first half of the year - 9--10 billion dollars. This data was provided by Tatyana Monagan, director of the Institute for Legal Protection of Property and Entrepreneurship. According to her, by the end of the year this amount could increase to $17 billion.
However, despite such impressive figures, the main thing is still not in them. It is much more important to understand why owners of capital earned in Russia prefer to export it to other countries. Moreover, as far as short-term capital is concerned, everything is more or less clear. Its owners make money, for example, from differences in exchange rates, and until recently the situation in Russia was favorable for this. The events around YUKOS and the summer banking crisis, if they influenced the migration of money, were quite insignificant. However, according to experts, it is precisely these manifestations of instability that cannot but affect the outflow of long-term money from the country. As well as the influx of investment.
Scientists are scientists to get to the bottom of the true causes of this or that phenomenon. According to Natalya Lopashenko, a professor at the Saratov State Academy of Law, who delivered the main report at the conference, investors are frightened not so much by the private showdown with YUKOS, but by the general insecurity of property in Russia. Ms. Lopashenko believes that the third redistribution of property in modern Russia is now taking place (the first two occurred as a result of privatization and the crisis of 1998). Moreover, this redistribution is taking place, including at the level of government, which, under pressure from various lobbying groups, changes laws in their favor, and in such a way that you won’t notice: “Somewhere they will replace a word, somewhere they will move a comma.”
“There are no levers by which such lobbying could be prevented,” says Professor Lopashenko. Such a lever could be, for example, a law on lobbying activities and the introduction of criminal penalties for its violation. However, the current shadow lobbyists will not allow such innovations in legislation that place lobbying within a strict legal framework, Ms. Lopashenko is sure.
It is also not yet possible to protect property from possible claims of large companies. By colluding and manipulating prices, they can simply ruin the intractable. Only new antimonopoly legislation and criminal penalties for its violations will help correct the situation, says Ms. Lopashenko.
The practice of redistributing property, widespread in Russia, through artificial bankruptcies and hostile takeovers, which also cannot be prevented with the help of current laws, also contributes to capital flight. We should not forget about administrative pressure on owners (read: owners of capital) through unjustified initiation of criminal cases. And even if it later turns out that the entrepreneur is clean, during the months while the investigation is ongoing, his partners will simply forget the way to a business colleague who has come under suspicion. “Capital does not feel protected in Russia, so it seeks refuge abroad. Capital in Russia needs to be given the status of a “sacred cow,” concludes Natalya Lopashenko. And this, according to her, cannot be achieved without changing economic and criminal legislation.
Alfred Zhalinsky, head of the Department of Criminal Law at the Higher School of Economics, suggested in what direction to change the legislation. It turns out that our criminal legislation is written in such a way that only an economic entity can be the losing party. But it is necessary, the scientist says, that the authorities also bear responsibility. For example, law enforcement agencies for an unreasonably initiated criminal case. Mikhail VOROBYEV |
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