COPS BEYOND USEFULNESS

POWER AND PEOPLE

The Levada Center continues to monitor the dynamics of public sentiment in Russia based on the analysis of the composite Index of Arbitrariness of Law Enforcement Bodies. Published in Novaya Gazeta No. 66, the IOPS showed an increase in citizens' anxiety...

The Levada Center continues to monitor the dynamics of public sentiment in Russia based on the analysis of the composite Index of Law Enforcement Arbitrariness.

The IOPS, published in Novaya Gazeta No. 66, showed an increase in the anxious mood of Russian citizens by 2.9 percent. This study is commissioned by the Public Verdict Foundation, and we will publish its results in Novaya Gazeta on a monthly basis.

The Law Enforcement Arbitrariness Index (ILPO) is a generalized indicator of the dynamics of the mass moods of society, reflecting the feeling of insecurity from arbitrary actions of the police, prosecutors and the judiciary that are not authorized by law.

The IOPS is based on regular surveys of the Russian adult population based on a standard representative sample of 1,600 people aged 18 and over in 128 localities across the country. This sample ensures high reliability of the study data (with a statistical error not exceeding 3.4 p.p.)

Index building technique

All questions used to build the index are aimed at identifying alarming or, on the contrary, favorable assessments of the activities of law enforcement agencies. When building an IOPS, attention is paid to three points - the components of the index:

• the extent to which people are concerned about the problem of lawlessness and arbitrariness of law enforcement agencies in relation to events taking place in the country (Civil Concern Index);

• the extent to which people are afraid of becoming a victim of lawlessness and arbitrariness of law enforcement agencies (Personal Concern Index);

• the extent to which people feel protected from the lawlessness and arbitrariness of law enforcement agencies (Personal Insecurity Index).

For each question/indicator, its generalized value is constructed as the difference between the shares of "anxious" and "satisfactory" answers, while extremely "anxious"/"satisfactory" answers are taken with a weight of "1", and relatively "anxious"/"satisfactory" answers are taken with a weight of "0.5".

The components of the EIPO index are calculated as arithmetic averages of the generalized values ​​of the indicators belonging to this component (two or three indicators for each component).

The cumulative EIPO index is calculated as the arithmetic average of the generalized values ​​of seven indicators. Thus, both the total IOPS index and its components vary in the range from “-100” to “+100”, while index values ​​over “0” mean the predominance of “anxious” in public opinion, and index values ​​less than “0” mean the predominance in public opinion of "favorable" assessments in terms of the protection of citizens from arbitrary, illegal actions of the police, prosecutors and the judiciary.

The results of the last measurement of the index of arbitrariness

As of August 2004, the value of the Index of Law Enforcement Arbitrariness was +33.5 (compared to July 2004, its value increased by 2.9 percentage points), and the values ​​of its components, respectively:

• Civil Concern Index +35.1 (compared to July 2004 +3.8 p.p.);

• Personal Concern Index +39.7 (compared to July 2004 +2.3 p.p.);

• Personal Insecurity Index +33.5 (compared to July 2004 +2.5 p.p.).

The data of the latest IOPS measurement still demonstrate a high degree of concern among the Russian population about the lawlessness perpetrated by law enforcement agencies both at the level of social institutions and at the personal, household level, and also due to the lack of mechanisms for effective protection of citizens from the arbitrariness of law enforcement agencies.

Index values ​​in August 2004 slightly increased compared to July 2004. And although this increase is still within the limits of statistical error (with the exception of the Civil Concern Index, whose value in August turned out to be significantly higher than in July), it shows a noticeable alarm Russian society about the actions of law enforcement agencies.

An analysis of the Index values ​​for individual social groups shows that

• residents of large cities, and especially Moscow, according to all indicators of the IOPS are more concerned about the actions of law enforcement agencies than residents of the provinces;

• the actions of law enforcement agencies cause more anxiety in people with a higher level of education, and people with higher education have higher indicators of civic concern, and people with secondary specialized education have indicators of personal anxiety and personal insecurity;

• Russian citizens of middle age (25-55 years old) experience the greatest anxiety regarding the actions of law enforcement agencies for all indicators of the IOPS, and over the past month the “epicenter” of anxiety has shifted to the older part of this group (40-55 years old);

• for men, the actions of law enforcement agencies for all indicators of the IOI cause more concern than for women.

With the accumulation of IOPS measurement data, certain answers will be received regarding how much these problems concern residents of various regions of the country; representatives of various national groups; people with different income levels and different social status.

In the next issue of the joint project (October 4, 2004) a new Law Enforcement Abuse Index will be published - based on September research.