On Tuesday, Gazprom's investment program was supposed to undergo a “second reading” at the board of directors before its final approval by the government. But on the same day, Gazpromneft General Director Sergei Bogdanchikov announced that his company would participate in the auction for Yuganskneftegaz, scheduled for December 19.

And Gazprom’s investment program changed beyond recognition overnight - the company’s capital investments were reduced by 100 billion rubles, since they were reserved for the purchase of Yuganskneftegaz.

Gazprom's financial position leaves much to be desired. The company is required to pay $6 billion in debt annually, and the only thing that allows it to meet these obligations is high energy prices.

The export price of gas depends on the cost of the basket of petroleum products, of which approximately 60% is oil. The price of gas follows the price of oil with a time lag of six to nine months.

Today these prices are higher than ever, but if they fall, it will be extremely difficult for the concern to fulfill its obligations. Paying about $10 billion ($3 billion from the investment program and another $7 billion in borrowed funds) for the acquisition of Yuganskneftegaz is clearly a political decision that determines the investment strategy of the concern.

According to the Gazprom press service, the investment program for 2005 has been increased from 262 billion rubles. up to 300 billion. However, the real volume of capital investments will now be about 150 billion rubles. - instead of the previous 250.

“Everything else at Gazprom is modestly called “financial investments.”

Indeed, from an accounting point of view, buying shares is nothing more than an investment, but not a production one, but a financial one,” notes Vladimir Milov , president of the Institute for Strategic Development of the Fuel and Energy Complex .

If in the previous version of the investment program all projects and the amounts allocated for them were clearly indicated, now the gas concern will have to cut off some projects from funding.

Apart from a few defining figures, the concern does not have an investment program as such.

And the problem cannot be solved quickly - none of Gazprom’s divisions wants to be an outsider, so a lobbying war can be predicted within the company.

This is indirectly confirmed by Gazeta.Ru’s source at Gazprom, who said that the investment program “was very much scrapped, and in haste.”

Vladimir Milov warns of possible consequences: “At the fields that were put into operation in Soviet times, production is quickly depleted. The concern will not be able to put any new fields into operation. The only new field that they introduced, back in the time of Rem Vyakhirev , was Zapolyarnoye. It is at the peak of its production capabilities and can produce no more than 100 billion cubic meters. m. Retiring production by 2005–2006 will amount to 50–60 billion cubic meters. m of gas. It’s unclear where they will get the money to commission new fields.”

The main fields that Gazprom is betting on are located in Yamal; their development requires about $70 billion.

To this we must add that the degree of wear of the linear part of the main pipelines is 58%, and their reconstruction will also require money.

“For the sake of purchasing Yugansk, Gazprom is seriously reducing capital investments. This could jeopardize the safe supply of gas to the population, as well as export contracts,” believes Dmitry Tsaregorodtsev from Rye, Man & Gor Securities.

Changes in the investment program show that gas production and pipeline repairs are not Gazprom’s primary goals. And the purchase of Yuganskneftegaz is included. So Economic Development Minister German Gref can talk as much as he wants about the uncompetitiveness of Russian monopolies - he will still remain alone.

“I don’t think our government was afraid of the emergence of a hypermonopoly in the market. They are not going to back down. An unofficial program for restoring state control over basic industries exists and is being successfully implemented.

I think that the idea voiced by Sergei Bogdanchikov about the possible acquisition of Surgutneftegaz and Sibneft should be taken absolutely seriously, even if they can be implemented at the earliest in one and a half to two years.

The trend is clearly emerging, and German Gref’s position sounds dissonant with the harmonious chorus of statists in the government,” believes Dmitry Tsaregorodtsev.

Bogdanchikov explained that in order to transform his company into a large international one, it needs to produce as much oil as Gazprom produces gas. “In oil equivalent, this is 500 million tons. The entire Russian oil industry does not produce that much yet,” comments Milov.

Gazprom's new investment policy