| The oil company now has almost enough to pay for 10.7% of Gazprom shares Officials still achieved the desired rating for Rosneft. As Vremya Novostey learned, in the updated conclusion of Morgan Stanley presented to the Federal Property Management Agency and the Ministry of Economic Development yesterday, the state-owned oil company was valued at $7.5-8.5 billion. Now it has become easier for the state to justify the exchange of 100% of Rosneft shares owned by the government for 10.7% of Gazprom shares, which are on the balance sheet of the concern’s subsidiaries. If we consider the market value of the gas monopolist based on internal stock quotes, then Rosneft is more than enough to pay for the required stake in Gazprom. Yesterday, 10.7% was worth $6.95 billion. However, such a path would be too non-market, since international consultants strongly recommended valuing Gazprom at ADR prices quoted on Western markets. In this case, the block of shares required by the government was worth about $8.8 billion yesterday.
The intention to exchange Rosneft for shares in Gazprom, which will allow the government to concentrate a controlling stake in the gas monopoly, was announced on September 14 at a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Mikhail Fradkov. To evaluate the assets that will take part in the transaction, Gazprom hired the investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein, and the Federal Property Management Agency hired Morgan Stanley. Banks preliminary valued Rosneft at $6-7 billion, and Gazprom - based on current ADR quotes, which categorically did not suit officials and Gazprom. Such an assessment automatically put the deal under great question. In this case, the price of a 10.7% stake in Gazprom was a couple of billion dollars higher than the price of Rosneft, and the state would have to pay extra.
The appraisers were presented with information about certain additional reserves of Rosneft, which ultimately made it possible to increase the valuation by approximately $1.5 billion. Moreover, the upper limit, according to the evaluators, which is contained in the conclusion, is too optimistic. Now the discrepancy in the value of 10.7% of the shares of Gazprom and 100% of Rosneft is, in the worst case, $300 million, to which you can simply close your eyes, hiding behind the interests of the state, or simply add Zarubezhneft. However, in the latter case, the exchange process will stretch through the first quarter of 2005. Ivan GORDEEV |
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