| The Ministry of Finance learned that the Russian banking sector will be dominated by foreigners and the state In the coming years, the Russian economy will most likely remain focused on raw materials, and state-owned and foreign banks will dominate the Russian banking market. This is the main conclusion of the study “Assessment of the Banking Sector of the Russian Federation”, conducted by KPMG, FBK and the Center for Research on Budgetary Relations (CIBO) commissioned by the Ministry of Finance. According to the authors, diversification of the economy and its stable growth are impossible without strong banks, and the banking system still remains small, risky and is slowly reforming.
In order to understand what to do with Russian banks, the second strategy for the development of the banking sector, prepared by it together with the Central Bank and the Ministry of Economic Development and approved by the government back in July, was not enough for the Ministry of Finance (by the way, for some reason this document still does not have the signature of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and the head of the Central Bank Sergei Ignatiev, therefore it cannot be considered accepted). In the spring, Alexei Kudrin’s department ordered three consultants to conduct a large-scale study of the banking sector (including financial crises involving banks in 28 countries), which was recently presented to officials. The document, which occupies about 400 pages, unlike the strategy, takes into account the consequences of the summer banking crisis in Russia (which the work calls a “crisis of mistrust”).
The overall picture that emerges from the work of consultants does not look depressing. And the summer crisis “is largely a consequence of the delay in taking measures towards achieving the strategic goal set at the end of 2001” in the first strategy for the development of the banking sector. In essence, this is an indirect accusation of the ineffectiveness of the reforms, which, importantly, was voiced in a document written specifically for the government’s financial block. According to the first scenario, “the national economy is dominated by the raw materials sector,” according to the second, with the dominance of raw materials industries, the state “takes noticeable steps to create a favorable business environment,” and the third provides that, simultaneously with this process, diversification of the economy occurs. The fourth scenario - the most negative - provides that “the raw materials component in the structure of GDP is gradually being replaced by industries related to the production of finished products, and the actions of the state indicate that the rules of doing business in Russia are still opaque” and with high political risks . The authors consider the second option to be the most likely, which, however, will not contribute to the creation in Russia of a powerful system of private banks with national capital. If it is implemented, the market will be dominated primarily by foreign banks and state-owned banks capable of financing the largest enterprises (of the same oil and gas industry). “The increased influence of foreign banks is expected to primarily deprive state-owned banks of their leading positions in the field of universal transactions,” the study says. This, in particular, should be facilitated by Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, as well as the liberalization of currency legislation. Consultants of the Ministry of Finance refrain from making assessments, however, it is clear that their forecast does not fit into the ideas of officials about the future of the banking system. It is worth remembering that more than a year ago, the first deputy chairman of the Central Bank, Andrei Kozlov, described to bankers his vision of its structure, according to which the leading place in the market should eventually be taken by the largest private banks with Russian capital (it is no coincidence that at Neglinnaya they constantly talk about the need to develop the national banking system, and the government who has been heading towards the denationalization of banks for a year). Apparently, this model is still being implemented very poorly, just like three years ago, the state needs to think about reform again. Yuri VERETENNIKOV |
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