| The government will still be able to save on monetization of benefits Federal and regional authorities are not giving up attempts to smooth out the negative consequences of the reform of social benefits for millions of Russians. And not without success. Rallies of pensioners are fading away, no one is blocking the roads anymore, and there are no reports from the localities about clashes in public transport between inspectors demanding money for travel from beneficiaries. From the emotions of the beginning of the year, the shaken country is gradually moving on to comprehending the first results of monetization and patching up the holes identified during the reform.
Although criticism of the authorities for the hasty and not fully thought out reform does not subside, it seems that there is no better time for such unpopular innovations in social policy, which in one way or another affected approximately 45 million Russians. It is even possible to admit that the authorities deliberately drove at full speed to carry out the reform in 2005. Not only in order to bring order to the system of benefits and to do away with the so-called unfunded mandates - social obligations not covered by budget money. Such never-fulfilled obligations, legislated by the state mainly in the early 90s, amounted to 2.7 trillion rubles.
Previously, funding for “impracticable” benefits was suspended annually by the budget law. However, in early 2004, the Constitutional Court banned this practice. Beneficiaries received a real opportunity to demand all unpaid money through the courts. The Ministry of Finance could not allow such a development of events.
It was advantageous to carry out the reform of benefits precisely in 2005 also because ultra-high oil prices, thanks to which the treasury had already swelled to previously unimaginable sizes, made it possible to immediately extinguish the emerging social tension (it’s even difficult to imagine what would await the country in the event of monetization with a deficit budget). The government, in fact, acts this way. It was decided to increase the basic part of pensions by 240 rubles ahead of schedule. from March 1 (this will require an additional 115 billion rubles), to increase pay for military personnel by 20% also from March 1 (6.9 billion rubles). Employees of internal affairs bodies, military pensioners, students, and cadets will also receive an increase in income. In addition, additional assistance is provided to regions that cannot cope with the monetization of transport benefits. And all this is in addition to the almost 200 billion rubles planned in the 2005 federal budget for monetization purposes. (Regional budgets allocated 113 billion rubles to finance the reform, Natalya Akindinova, a leading expert at the Development Center, reminded Vremya Novostey.)
According to preliminary estimates by analysts, the total budget expenditures in connection with the monetization of benefits already exceed 500 billion rubles. And, most likely, this is not the limit. Groups of beneficiaries who have not yet gotten rid of the feeling of disadvantage may well raise their voices. For example, at a rally last Saturday in Arkhangelsk (by the way, held by United Russia in support of Vladimir Putin’s social policy) it was stated that monetary compensation to regional beneficiaries in the amount of 300 rubles. and the lack of a “social package” for them significantly worsened the financial situation of tens of thousands of people. There was also talk about students who were deprived of the northern scholarship supplement. Probably, some other “flaw” of the government will reveal itself.
However, following the logic of developments, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin will calmly pay for all these new social bills - fortunately the budget allows. Moreover, one should not be surprised at the ease with which Mr. Kudrin, always caring for every budget penny, parted with billions of rubles. He understands perfectly well that it is better to spend 500 or even more billion rubles than to face the danger of paying off social obligations in the amount of 7 trillion rubles every year. despite the fact that the consolidated budget capacity is only 4.3 trillion rubles. (these figures were mentioned during the discussion of the monetization law at a cabinet meeting in April last year). In other words, the current price of reform for the budget is not minus 500 billion rubles, but plus 1.8 billion rubles. And as a bonus - ideally bringing at least relative order to the hitherto absolutely opaque system of social benefits.
However, next year this theoretical gain may not be so significant, since the price of the reform will increase. And not only in connection with the indexation of compensation payments. For example, it is already clear that Russian Railways OJSC will most likely demand an increase in the amount of compensation for transporting privileged categories of citizens. In 2005, the amount of compensation amounted to 5.8 billion rubles. This money, of course, pleases the railway workers, since previously they did not receive anything at all from the state for beneficiaries. However, this amount does not cover the cost of their travel. As Vladimir Yakunin, First Vice President of Russian Railways, said at a recent meeting with journalists, the company plans to introduce personalized accounting of beneficiaries using commuter trains, which will allow them to accurately calculate costs. When this is done, apparently, Russian Railways will issue a new invoice.
Be that as it may, as long as petrodollars flow into Russia in a powerful stream, the budget is executed with a surplus, a stabilization fund has been created, and the government is able to carry out more than one reform, such as monetization. However, few people today wonder what will happen if, as a result of falling oil prices, the opportunity to extinguish political fires with multi-billion dollar cash injections disappears. Mikhail VOROBYEV |
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