Le Figaro: dictators of the former USSR are alarmed by revolutions in the post-Soviet space

Inopressa. Most countries of the former USSR, including Russia, are now potential “candidates” for confrontation with protest movements. Galloping corruption, the concentration of all power in the hands of an oligarchic caste of people from the former party nomenklatura or intelligence services - all this has created a deep gap between peoples and rulers.

In all these authoritarian dictatorships, “hard” or “soft” - depending on geography, political traditions and the temperament of the leaders - the seeds of discontent are ripening, which could cause an explosion at the next elections, the French newspaper writes.

All "velvet" movements have so far reaped the benefits of large-scale electoral fraud, in accordance with the "elections - falsification - revolution" scheme. In all cases, students and local non-governmental organizations, supported by American NGOs that had been active in these regions for years, acted as the vanguard of rebellious movements.

It is also true that the Georgian, Ukrainian and Kyrgyz regimes had specific features that did not allow them to be considered dictatorships in their pure form: there were significant spaces for freedom, especially in the media. Some experts, on this basis, conclude that the countries most capable of “change” are those that retain opportunities for a certain pluralism of opinions - Azerbaijan, Armenia and Kazakhstan, Le Figaro believes.

However, other experts consider the mechanism of “contagion” from a neighbor more likely: Belarus, ruled by dictator Alexander Lukashenko, is threatened by the export of the Ukrainian orange model, and the harsh Central Asian dictatorships are threatened by the Kyrgyz virus.

Azerbaijan . Ahead of the elections scheduled for November 2005, the situation in this country, where the Aliyev clan has retained power (many believe that in the last elections, the dying Heydar handed over the reins of power to his son Ilham), remains precarious. In October 2003, on the day the voting results were announced, riots broke out in Baku and were brutally suppressed. Since then, the fractured opposition has been trying to unite under the auspices of the leader of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, Ali Karimli, who, inspired by the Ukrainian revolution, has just returned from a tour of Western capitals. In an effort to extend its power, the Aliyev clan continues to position itself in the West as a guarantor of the stability of investments of large oil companies in the Caspian Sea.

Armenia . An enemy of Azerbaijan, with which it shares the “frozen” Karabakh conflict, the Armenian regime is weakened by its inability to resolve this conflict. Hawkish President Robert Kocharyan, a native of Karabakh, did not hesitate to use the weapon of large-scale election fraud. The opposition is weak, but the failure of Kocharyan's policy on the Karabakh issue and the economic crisis are a breeding ground for discontent. Emigration is widespread. There are voices in favor of revising the policy of a close alliance with Moscow and for the reorientation of Armenia to the West. The example of friendly Georgia is causing heated debate.

Kazakhstan . The political evolution of Kazakhstan since 1991 closely resembles that of Kyrgyzstan. In 1991, President Nursultan Nazarbayev was considered one of the most modernist leaders of the former USSR. But subsequently he became increasingly inclined to authoritarian methods of government and changed the constitution to remain in power. Paying tribute to the widespread nepotism in these parts, he systematically “pushed” his relatives into leadership positions, and made his daughter the leader of a new... opposition party. Kazakh authorities, closely following the Kyrgyz revolution, claim that they are “not afraid of infection,” citing the much higher standard of living of their fellow citizens. Rich in hydrocarbons, Kazakhstan aspires to become one of the main oil producing countries in the world.

Uzbekistan . This is one of the toughest dictatorships in the Central Asian region. Ruled by the iron fist of Islam Karimov since independence in 1991, Uzbekistan has eliminated all Gorbachev-era democratic opposition parties from the scene. Not a single opposition movement was able to take part in the December parliamentary elections, which were sharply criticized by the OSCE. The Karimov regime is accused of using torture and imprisoning about 6 thousand political prisoners. Non-governmental organizations are subject to constant persecution here. Undermined from within, weakened by increasingly frequent terrorist attacks, Tashkent is seeking support from Russia and the United States. The country opened its doors to the Americans, who have had an air force base here since 2001. Double Blade Alliance...

Turkmenistan . The ultra-strict regime, permeated through with the cult of personality of its leader, Saparmurat Niyazov, maintains complete control over political life and the media. The system here is so closed that it is very difficult to judge the impact that the Kyrgyz revolution could have had on Turkmenistan.

Tajikistan . 64% of the population lives below the poverty line, which makes the country comparable to Kyrgyzstan in this regard. The economic situation in Tajikistan is explosive. But the country's leader, Emomali Rakhmonov, was able to record a partial division of power with the Islamist opposition. A real antidote to popular uprisings here are the memories of the terrible civil war of 1992, which claimed the lives of about 500 thousand people. This circumstance makes a popular uprising unlikely.

Belarus . Bordered to the west by Poland, to the south by Ukraine, and to the north by the Baltic countries, the Belarus of dictator Alexander Lukashenko is undoubtedly in a “favorable” environment. But how long will this situation last? The fact that the authorities were able to “push through” the holding of a referendum in October, which made it possible to change the country’s constitution, speaks of the weakness of the disparate opposition. However, there are more and more civil initiatives inspired by the Ukrainian example. Student demonstrations regularly take place in the capital.

Russia . Although Vladimir Putin, freshly re-elected to a second presidential term, seemed to be at the zenith of his power about a year ago, a series of failures since then have weakened the Russian regime, which is increasingly sliding towards authoritarianism. It was the “orange revolution” in Kyiv that brought the Russian elite out of their stupor. Defeated by Putin, pushed to the margins of political life, liberals and “oligarchs” are already “sharpening their blades”, taking advantage of the movement of social discontent that the Kremlin has to deal with. Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov, who until now has obeyed the orders of the Kremlin, in his speech to students at Moscow University, expressed the opinion that a “revolution” could occur in Russia. But what color? So far, no one has taken it upon themselves to give an answer, Le Figaro concludes.