Stock market

Over the past week, the Russian stock market managed to abandon the idea of further decline and consolidate at the achieved levels. Not the best data on the state of the US economy, published on Friday evening, gave investors reason for optimism. Experts believe that this positive charge will last at least for this week.

The main risk factor for all emerging markets, including Russian, has recently been the American economy, which has demonstrated relatively rapid growth rates. Investors believed that in such conditions the US government would be able to continue raising interest rates at an accelerated pace. An increase in US interest rates leads to an outflow of capital from emerging markets. Therefore, investors were anxiously awaiting the release of statistics on the labor market in the United States, which were published on Friday evening. The statistical results pleased analysts and in the last hour before the close of trading gave a fairly powerful stimulus to the growth of the Russian market. Sergey Yegishyants, leading analyst at IT Invest: “The number of jobs in the United States grew by half as much as expected; data for January and February were also revised downwards. The average length of the working week remained at the same level, as did the share of employed “Both indicators are at their multi-year highs. At the same time, in the manufacturing sector, both employment and the length of the working week began to fall again - in general, everything is far from brilliant.”

Such macroeconomic data increase the chances of foreign investors returning to Russia. Therefore, Russian players began to buy blue chips. Experts believe that buying will continue next week. Oleg Galkin, chief trader at ING Bank: “After the release of relatively weak American indicators, there is a chance that Russian liquidity will show itself.”

I would like to note that the upward movement of the Russian market still remains purely speculative, and whether it will be supported by institutional strategic investors is a moot point. At first, international markets did not react very actively to the publication of American data. Sergei Yegishyants: “The market’s reaction to American statistics data was generally restrained - after the first convulsive reaction, the dollar did not want to fall further and returned to the week’s high; gold fluctuated in a narrow range; stocks also fell and then rose.”

Nevertheless, experts are full of optimism and argue only about which securities investors will give preference to. Dmitry Serebrennikov, head of the individual client relations department at Finam Investment Company: “On Friday , Sberbank shares exceeded their historical maximum and may reach the level of 1,800 rubles in the coming month.” Evgeny Volkov, trader at MDM Bank: “A good level for RAO UES shares is 8.30-8.50 rubles per share; if the market manages to overcome it, then perhaps these shares will rise to 9 rubles.”

The situation with the shares of MMC Norilsk Nickel still remains unclear. After Vladimir Putin’s statement (see Kommersant on March 28), investors removed some of the so-called oligarchic risks from these securities, and the company’s fundamental indicators remain good. Evgeniy Volkov: “Assuming market growth, MMC shares can 'shoot' at the level of 1,750-1,770 rubles per share.” However, the fact that shares did not rise strongly enough last week gave rise to some rumors in the market. For example, that, having not taken advantage of the previously proposed offer, the main shareholders are carefully reducing their shares in the company. Therefore, other experts are cautious about the growth prospects for MMC shares. Dmitry Serebrennikov: “In the current situation, MMC shares are unlikely to be able to get out of the price range of 1,550-1,750 rubles per share.”

Regardless of macroeconomic indicators, AvtoVAZ shares may continue to grow. Stanislav Kleshchev, head of the analytical department of the Financial Bridge Investment Company: “On April 8, the register will be closed for the annual meeting of AvtoVAZ. We expect the bullish game to continue, since the expected size of dividends on preferred shares is 126 rubles per share, which corresponds to 14.6 % dividend yield."

Experts also expect a similar bullish play from the Rostelecom stock market - the dividend yield on them is expected to be quite good. Ivan Vorobyov, leading analyst at the Baltic Financial Agency: “We expect revenue growth compared to the previous year by 11%, and net profit by 14.7%. These figures correspond to dividends on ordinary shares of 1.2 rubles per share, and for privileged ones - 3.75-4 rubles."

OLGA Kommersant-BUYANOVA

At someone else's expense