IMF: The world faces the threat of a "long oil crisis"

The world faces the threat of a "long -term oil crisis" and should be ready for the fact that oil prices will be high for a long period, the International Monetary Fund said. This is the sharpest of the official warnings that have still sounded within the framework of long -term forecasts for energy supplies, notes The Financial Times , which is published by Inopressa .

Predicting the growth of demand in developing countries and a limited number of new supplies outside the OPEC after 2010, the chief economist of the IMF Raghura Rajan said: "We must be prepared for life at high oil prices." And expensive oil will "continue to pose a serious threat to the global economy," he added.

In the report “Prospects of the World Economy”, the IMF predicts that in 2010 oil will cost $ 34 per barrel in today's money, and by 2030 the price will rise to $ 39-56 per barrel.

The price predicted by the IMF significantly exceeds market expectations and expectations of the oil industry. It is also much higher than indicated in the last long -term forecast of the International Energy Agency conducting the monitoring of the oil sector - $ 27 per barrel in 2010 and $ 34 per barrel in 2030.

“The crisis that we observe is a permanent crisis, it will continue, and the countries should adapt to this,” said David Robinson, director of the analytical department of the IMF.

The IMF called on the developing countries of Asia, due to which the increase in oil demand this year amounted to 40%, to limit its fuel subsidies. Some countries of this region, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, have recently raised gas prices to reduce consumption.

The IMF bases its forecast on a sharp jump in global oil consumption, especially in connection with an increase in vehicle owners in China and on the fact that by 2010 the countries outside the OPEC have reached the stage of plateaus.

Meanwhile, the demand for oil will grow, increasing annually by 2.1 barrels per day.

Some analysts are skeptical about the forecasts and requirements of the IMF, indicating that no other international energy department shares their views, FT notes.

However, the IMF report draws a joyless picture for energy consumers: "With the growth of global dependence on the oil countries, the OPEC will depend on the response of OPEC, but it is most likely that this will lead to an increase in oil prices." The IMF suggests that a cartel that controls 40% of the global oil production will have to invest about $ 350 billion by 2030 for the construction of new equipment.

The US Department of Energy on Thursday increased its oil prices in 2005 and 2006 to $ 55 per barrel, which is $ 6 more than in the forecast over the past month.