What the President will say to business

message

On April 25, President Vladimir Putin will address the Federal Assembly with his annual message. In theory, he should speak out on the main problems that interest the entire Russian society. Chairman of the Coordination Council of Russia's largest business organizations, who is primarily responsible for the dialogue between business and government, ALEXANDER SHOKHIN, told Kommersant columnist PETER Netreba what business expects from the president's message.

— What do you expect from the president’s message?

- This message is very important. The president in it can determine the course of economic policy, which underwent serious changes this year, when the well-known events with Yuganskneftegaz took place, for the next three years and for the period of the subsequent transfer of power. Therefore, if the president analyzes the implementation of his instructions in previous messages, this will be important precisely from the point of view of how the vector of economic policy until 2008 will be formulated.

It is also very important for the business community that the president confirm some of his positions, and perhaps take the next step. This concerns the issue of payment for land. On the issue of tax administration, I would like to hear that new forms of pressure should not appear.

— By the way, about tax administration. This week you met with Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and didn’t you agree on anything?

— There is progress on some issues. For example, regarding a change in the date of fulfillment by the taxpayer of his obligations to pay taxes. Based on the list of documents that need to be checked, a compromise will also be found. But some issues still need to be agreed upon. In particular, on the grounds for repeated tax audits. The Ministry of Finance has already agreed that there should be no more than two grounds for such checks. But when working on a tax administration system, it is very important not to become a hostage to the negotiation process. The danger is that if we come to an agreement and then, say, by a decision of the Constitutional Court, everything will be disavowed. The law can still be corrected, but the decision of the Constitutional Court can only be changed by the court itself, which, as we know, does not admit its own incompetence. We are afraid of such a development of events that could cancel out all agreements.

— Have you already said goodbye to the idea of returning to the demand to reduce taxes - VAT and Unified Social Tax?

— In fact, if there were a radical change in tax administration and a VAT refund on capital investments, we would take this as a serious argument. But many of my colleagues in the business community are beginning to return to the demand for lower tax rates as the simplest way to reduce the tax burden. It's like a bird in the hand that can replace a pie in the sky. Improving tax administration may be the crane that flies high in the sky but is clearly not slowing down.

— Are personnel changes in the government possible as a result of the message?

— The message itself is not a basis for personnel changes. True, in 1998, the president directly stated in his message that the government was not working well. Less than three weeks after the message, the president replaced the Chernomyrdin government. But then the president was Boris Yeltsin, who was prone to decisive action. And then he was looking for a political structure for the upcoming elections in 2000. Vladimir Putin is not seen making radical decisions and is unlikely to begin to build any new line in his relations with the government three years before the elections. However, personnel changes are possible. My subjective opinion is that there are two possible scenarios. According to the first option, resignations in the government may coincide with annual meetings in natural monopolies and other large state-owned companies. These companies can be reinforced by government officials. Under the second option, the president may decide that it is time to demonstrate determination and dismiss ministers, especially those who are not loved by parliament.

But recently the government has begun to work somewhat differently. If previously a government meeting was a place for public discussions between the prime minister, the government apparatus and ministries, now the government looks more monolithic. And all controversial issues are resolved not in public, but at the budget commission or other closed meetings. It is even procedurally noticeable that the prime minister does not allow various advisers to the president, parliament and business to participate in discussions at government meetings.

— Is it too late for Vladimir Putin to send a message? Is there any point at all in such messages?

— I believe that the timing of the presidential address should not be flexible. For example, there is a rule of the American Congress - January 21. It is tied to the date of the presidential inauguration. Considering that the budget year in the United States begins in April, this makes it possible to start the year with the presidential address. This scheme is technologically advanced. Our message is not embedded anywhere. It turns out that Vladimir Putin will organize a PR campaign, addressing the people over the head of the Federal Assembly. Moreover, the next budget message will appear after the government has formed the main parameters of the budget for the next three years. So if the budget message is very different from the budget proposal, it will be an admission that the government has worked in the dustbin.

"Improving tax administration is like pie in the sky"