| Germany may not give up its nuclear power plants The historic defeat of the German coalition of Social Democrats and the Green Party in parliamentary elections in the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia has opened the prospect of a possible change of power in Berlin. If Gerhard Schröder's attempt to prolong the Social Democratic coalition in power by holding early elections in September is unsuccessful, the current government will be replaced by a coalition of conservative Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) and Free Democrats (FDP). If this is destined to happen, then one of the most beloved projects of the current cabinet - the “red-green” energy policy - will be under real threat.
The return of Christian Democrats to ministerial chairs (and the departure of German “green” ideologists of “alternative energy” to the opposition camp) will mean a revision of most government decisions taken in Germany in this regard in recent years. In any case, the current leader of the CDU/CSU and today the most likely candidate for federal chancellor, Angela Merkel, has repeatedly called the abandonment of nuclear energy “wrong” and demanded a review of the energy policy of the Schröder cabinet.
The forecasts of German political scientists in this regard are not too different from each other. Some argue that the new government will completely reverse the red-green plans to phase out nuclear energy. Others (the majority) believe that the very idea of abandoning the peaceful atom in one form or another will continue under a conservative-liberal cabinet. However, the timing of this process will be significantly increased, which in itself will preserve the uninterrupted production of peaceful nuclear energy in Germany for a long time. Let us recall that at one time, as a result of protracted discussions with nuclear power producers and business associations, the government of Chancellor Schröder in 2000 managed to “bargain” for its plans for a complete exit from nuclear energy for a minimum period of 32 years. “We can now expect a renewed discussion about the timing,” says Christian Schindler, an analyst at the Rhineland-Palatinate land bank.
With the increase in the operating life of nuclear reactors, large German energy concerns will be able to save on capital investments due to the fact that the investments will operate significantly longer, Schindler notes. The largest number of nuclear power plants in Germany currently belongs to the E.on concern from Dusseldorf, which the local press has already dubbed the “secret winner” of the elections in the federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The fact is that, in the conditions of the power vacuum created in Germany, the adoption of the draft law “On Energy Management”, which is currently being discussed, developed by the Social Democrats and the Greens, will drag on for many more months, introducing a significant element of the state into this industry in Germany (in particular , and price) regulation.
Since the beginning of this week, the share price of German energy producers and distributors has increased noticeably on the stock exchanges: the RWE share price increased by 3.1% and reached 48.63 euros. For E.on, both these figures were 3.9% and 69.85 euros, respectively. Analysts from Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein estimate that extending the operating life of nuclear power reactors in Germany by 13 years (i.e. until 2045) will increase shares of E.on and RWE by 10 euros each. In view of high world oil prices, such a forecast in the event of a change of power in Germany is considered quite realistic. Yuri Shpakov, Berlin |
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