| Yesterday it rose to December levels The rise of the dollar that started 2005 is not over. Yesterday, thanks to the efforts of speculators on the Russian market, the American currency rose by another 15 kopecks, reaching 28.15 rubles. for a dollar. The dollar is trending upward under the influence of world markets, where it is rising in price even faster. Investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, and US assets are in great demand. Analysts believe that on this wave, the Russian dollar exchange rate may rise to 28.5-29 rubles.
Yesterday, the dollar rose against the euro to 1.299--1.3 dollars/euro (almost two-month highs) amid another round of favorable economic news. The US Treasury released data on foreign investment in the economy, according to which net foreign purchases of American assets in November amounted to $81 billion, including $14.5 billion in stocks. “Against this background, the market is waiting for the Federal Reserve’s decision to increase the discount rate from the current 2.25 to 2.75%,” notes the chief economist of Uralsib FC Vladimir Tikhomirov, “if this happens, the dollar will become even more attractive.” The US central bank's rate meeting will take place in about three weeks.
For the Russian market, the determining factor in exchange rate formation is still the international market. At the beginning of the year, after the global dollar rose against the euro by almost 4% to 1.31 dollars per euro, the Russian exchange rate immediately jumped by 20 kopecks. up to 27.95 rub. Experts expected that in the second half of January, after exporters began selling foreign currency earnings to get rubles, our dependence on international exchange rates would decrease, and the dollar would go down again. However, exporters are in no hurry to sell. According to Pyotr Neymyshev, a senior dealer at MDM Bank, “corporations are holding the currency in anticipation of the dollar rising,” and this inspires speculators to bullish.
Yesterday at the MICEX single trading session, the weighted average dollar exchange rate for “tomorrow” settlements amounted to 28.1242 rubles. (and the most expensive transactions were concluded at the level of 28.14-28.15 rubles). A sharper growth, as usual, was prevented by the Central Bank, which sold about $1.2 billion on the stock exchange. According to Mr. Neymyshev, now that the dollar has “returned” to the level of early December last year, dealers are determined to see a rate of around 28.2 rub. and above. “Until the first half of February we will follow the dollar-euro exchange rate, but sooner or later the revenue will come to the market,” he notes. At the same time, Mr. Tikhomirov from Uralsib warns that the market may be affected by the repayment of foreign loans by Russian banks, which borrowed more than $8 billion abroad in the fourth quarter of last year. According to him, “the first wave of closure of these loans, and, therefore, we can expect an increase in demand for the dollar in early February.”
Experts predict that sooner or later the dollar will go down. The policy of the Central Bank, which is faced with the task of containing inflation within 8.5%, will put pressure on the exchange rate, notes ATON economist Alexey Vorobyov. Yesterday, First Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Alexey Ulyukaev expressed confidence that this is “a completely realistic task.” “With high world oil prices, the main tool for achieving the goal will be the strengthening of the ruble against the dollar,” Mr. Vorobiev is confident. Based on high oil prices, ATON forecasts the ruble exchange rate at the end of the year at 26.5 rubles. per dollar, and the average rate within the year is 27.1 rubles. Mr. Tikhomirov agrees: “The ruble will continue to strengthen throughout the year, with possible fluctuations. It is possible that soon we will see 28.5 rubles/dollar, and in a month or two - again 28 rubles.” According to his estimates, dollar fluctuations on world markets will be limited to a corridor of 1.25--1.40 dollars/euro. “The strengthening of the dollar does not correspond to the current state of the American economy,” adds the ATON expert. “Fundamental factors,” such as budget and trade deficits at 4 and 6% of GDP, are “very depressing,” he recalls. Yuri VERETENNIKOV |
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