Translated material
Brussels vinaigrette
The budget and the constitution have shaken up the European Union
Today the next two-day EU summit begins in Brussels. “This is a key summit for the future of the EU,” EU diplomats accredited in Moscow, interviewed by a Vremya Novostei correspondent, did not hide their concern yesterday. It will examine the ratification of the European Constitution and the structure of the EU budget for 2007-2013. Both issues have a decisive impact on the future of the EU, but how to resolve them has not yet been determined.After the failure of referendums on the ratification of the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands, the monolithic edifice of the European Union has begun to shake, and the Brussels summit participants will have to resolve the most acute crisis in the history of the organization. The summit provides an opportunity to make a general decision on the advisability of further ratification of the constitution. For Europe's fundamental law to come into force, it must be ratified by all 25 EU members. Only ten countries approved the Constitution, two categorically rejected it, while skepticism and despondency about the future of this document are increasingly spreading in countries that have to determine their attitude to the project.
At first, the EU leadership, out of inertia, insisted on continuing the process of ratification of the European Constitution. However, yesterday, the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, still called for “caution” and “taking a break” in referendums in order to avoid a possible failure of the European constitution in other countries. British Prime Minister Tony Blair also suggested “taking a few months of respite for reflection” yesterday. On the eve of the summit, several countries introduced the idea of postponing for a year - until November 1, 2007 - the deadline for the adoption of the EU constitution. This would allow for repeat referendums in France and the Netherlands.
“The process of further ratification of the European Constitution will most likely be suspended,” Vladimir Gutnik, head of the Center for European Studies at IMEMO RAS, told VN. In his opinion, the text of the constitution will be finalized within 6-9 months, and an improved version will be offered again for ratification in the middle of next year. “It will be possible to reach agreement on the constitutional issue in Brussels,” Vladimir Gutnik is confident.
But according to the framework budget for 2007-2013, this is unlikely. The Prime Minister of Luxembourg, currently presiding over the EU, Jean-Claude Juncker, is “almost sure” of this. “There is little chance that it will be possible to agree on a framework budget; there are too many disagreements,” says Vladimir Gutnik. “In addition, such issues are usually resolved before summits at bilateral meetings.” Judging by the results of the negotiations between French President Jacques Chirac and British Prime Minister Tony Blair that ended on the eve of the summit, it was not possible to reach a compromise.
Without agreement between Paris and London, agreement on the European budget is impossible. Chirac called on Blair to fulfill his part of the budget commitments and agree to renegotiate the terms of the UK's €4.6 billion refund this year. This benefit for Britain's non-participation in EU agricultural policy - the so-called British check - was defended in 1984 by Margaret Thatcher. According to Jean-Claude Juncker, all 24 EU member states, except the UK itself, are in favor of reducing the size of the “British check”. London is ready to negotiate the amount of this compensation, but only if EU budget expenditures on the agricultural sector, which largely go to French farmers, are reduced. Paris is against revising this budget item.
“It’s okay if Brussels doesn’t approve the framework budget, this can be done at the beginning of next year,” says Vladimir Gutnik. “But if Britain does not make concessions, it will give other countries a signal to more actively fight for preferences for themselves.” Currently, 76% of EU budget expenditures go to the agricultural sector and to the development of lagging EU regions. Brussels proposes to change the structure of spending, directing more funds to scientific research and advanced technologies. Economically less developed newcomers to the community from Eastern Europe are opposed to this. Those countries that intend to join the EU in the coming years are in exactly the same mood; in this matter, the interests of the old-timers of the EU and the “newcomers” of the union are in direct conflict. References to further EU enlargement were significantly removed from drafts of the summit's final declaration. The Brussels bureaucracy is forced to admit that one of the main reasons for the failure of the European Constitution was the dissatisfaction of the residents of the founding countries of the EU with the hasty expansion of the union.