| At the current G8 summit, Russia should officially assume the powers of chairman of this organization for the coming year. The situation causes a lot of contradictory comments. On the one hand, in previous periods, Russia rather played the role of a statistic in the G8: we can contribute little to discussions of the problems of African development or global warming, and the level of our economic development does not allow us to make an equal contribution to solving pressing global issues with our G8 partners. So far, the only issues in which we are attracting stable interest from these same partners are issues of energy dialogue and global security.
On the other hand, circles concerned with the problems of developing democracy in Russia are seriously talking about discrediting the very idea of a club of the most open and democratic states in the world in the light of the transfer of chairmanship functions to a country where, in their opinion, there have recently been serious trends of departure from the democratic principles of public devices. Some “hot heads” even call for Russia to be excluded from the G8. And finally, the very idea of the G8 clearly needs serious rethinking and even reform, as the Western press has been talking about more and more loudly lately. New “strong” ones are growing up - China, India, Brazil, without which discussion of the key problems of our time seems to lose meaning. The key countries - members of the G8 - are clearly in strained relations with each other (primarily we are talking about the crack between the USA and France, as well as Germany), have serious internal problems (this concerns continental European countries and Japan) or hardly according to some parameters they are suitable for the title of leading world powers (Italy or Canada).
In general, it’s time to do something about the G8. Is it really possible that the honorable mission of leading this process will fall to our country? Or will we be expelled for backsliding on democracy? And if not, what can we offer the G8 countries, at least in the field of energy dialogue?
The truth is that Russia will take over the G8 presidency at a really bad time. The crisis of the United Europe that arose in connection with the French and Dutch “no” to the European Constitution, the continuing tension in relations between the United States and the countries of continental Europe, the global division regarding the optimal model of foreign policy behavior of the largest world powers and, in general, the growing contradictions between the “liberal-market” and “social-state” models of the development of civilization (even if these concepts are overly mythologized) - as can be seen, a tangle of contradictions is accumulating in the world, which will require a serious restructuring of the global system of interstate political coordination.
Russia is hardly capable today of acting as a mediator in solving these problems. We don’t have our own long-term development strategy. And in what would seem to be a traditionally winning area for us - energy - we clearly have nothing to show off in recent years. Energy dialogues with the United States and the EU are marking time without real results, and we still cannot give Japan a clear answer regarding the specific prospects for building an oil pipeline to the Pacific Ocean, preferring the traditional Russian foreign policy line of “preserving the possibility of maneuver.” Claims to look like a global leader in developments in the field of hydrogen energy (the topic is being actively discussed by the Russian authorities in the run-up to the preparations for the summit in Moscow) so far look unconvincing - the promised investments of Interros in this area, which could amount to $40 million, are extremely small in comparison with hundreds of millions in the EU, USA and Japan.
On the other hand, the Russian authorities are simply obliged to adequately fulfill the functions of the G8 chairmanship. When Russia was accepted into the G-8, it looked like a credit of confidence. Many influential countries dream of joining this club, which allows them to participate in shaping a truly global political and economic agenda. We are far from the leading world powers in terms of GDP, and in terms of living standards, and in terms of the standards of open society - however, we have got a chance to get closer to them, we have opened up the opportunity to implement the civilizational choice that is natural for Russia in favor of an open society and an open economy. And this was a great success for Russia, a guideline for moving forward.
There is a feeling that developed countries are ready to give us this chance again. Even despite all their suspicions about the prospects for democracy in Russia and the loud calls from the Western public for Russia’s exclusion from the G8. This position of Western leaders can be said to be a wise position. Current political trends are not eternal, and the relative passivity of society in relation to democratic institutions is rather a confirmation of the rule that Russians, after harnessing for a long time, eventually drive fast. The issue of inclusion or exclusion of Russia cannot be resolved every time there is a change in the political regime in the country.
This is not a request to the powerful for leniency. In the end, exclusion from the G8 would not be a disaster for Russia - we will survive. However, I still want to believe in the democratic path of development of our country, the preservation and deepening of its integration into the community of leaders of civilization.
What should we do for this? If we revive the energy dialogue with the leading members of the G8, then we need to do this. Stop fooling the United States about whether Russia will have an oil pipeline to the North and whether the export of liquefied natural gas will develop, and Japan about whether there will be an oil pipeline to the Pacific Ocean. Provide the European Union with systemic guarantees that Russia will remain a reliable gas supplier and will not create an energy blockade of “buffer” countries - Ukraine, the Baltics, Georgia - for the sake of its sovereign ambitions. In energy, reliability means reliability.
And of course, much will depend on how the Russian authorities behave in relation to the foundations of a democratic structure within the country. Putin still has a chance to dismantle the main restrictions on holding free and fair elections in Russia in 2007-2008 that have arisen in recent years. If he decides to do this, it will not only be the Russians who will benefit, for whom the prospect of political upheaval due to the atmosphere in which future elections will be organized will disappear. Actually, the G8 summit in this situation will have great chances of success.
Well, if the Russian authorities do not want to move in this direction and use the factor of Russia’s chairmanship in 2006 simply to promote the current political regime and the delights of Russian “managed democracy,” then the summit risks turning into either a farce (which will further undermine the authority of the G8 itself), or “exemplary flogging” of Russia by Western leaders. The hydrogen issue will not save us in this case. And the unique chance for strengthening Russian influence in the world, provided by Russia’s G8 presidency, will be missed. It seems that this is exactly the case when, in order to change the world for the better, we must first change ourselves. Vladimir MILOV, President of the Energy Policy Institute
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