August 15, 2005 - this date was designated in the Iraqi Transitional Administrative Law as the deadline for submitting the country's draft permanent constitution to parliament for discussion. And now the dead-line has passed, and the Iraqi political forces have not come to an agreement on the main document of the country. A political crisis was avoided only thanks to the efficiency of parliamentarians, who hastened to extend the period for discussing the constitution for another week - until August 22. During this period, Iraqi politicians will have to resolve a number of issues, discussions on which have not been able to move forward for months.

Running in place

The discussion of the draft permanent constitution in Iraq began with a long delay - hampered by the absence of a government, the formation of which took three whole months after the parliamentary elections. Finally, by the end of April, the leadership managed to distribute seats in the cabinet among representatives of the country's three main religious and ethnic groups - Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis. The main braking political force in this process was the Sunnis, who continually accused the united Shiites and Kurds of not taking their interests into account.

Discussions regarding the draft constitution that began after the election of the transitional government showed that the Sunnis were the “third wheel” this time too. At the meetings of the commission created at the National Assembly to develop the document, mainly proposals from Shiite and Kurdish politicians were discussed, while the Sunnis in most cases acted as the dissatisfied party. Actually, they had nothing else to do, since, having 17 votes in parliament, they played an almost decorative role in the negotiation process. The Iraqi leadership constantly emphasized that without the Sunnis the democratization process in Iraq would be incomplete, but during the negotiations the latter's opinion was perceived only as an annoying obstacle.

The least active are Kurdish politicians, who have already been promised some independence within a united Iraq. In exchange for this, as well as the appointment of the Kurdish Jalal Talabani as president, they agreed to give the place of prime minister to the Shiite Ibrahim al-Jaafari. The Shiites, having received a majority in the National Assembly, became completely bolder and declared that they also needed autonomy, and not just anywhere, but in the oil-rich south of Iraq. At first, this was stated by secular politicians Ahmad Halabi and Bakr al-Yassin, who are not so influential among the Shiites, but shortly before the expected end of the negotiations it became known that these immodest claims were also supported by the head of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, Abdelaziz al-Hakim.

In putting forward demands for the creation of an autonomous province, the Shiites relied on the support of the same Kurds. The latter cannot object to anything, even if they want to, since quarreling with the most influential political force in the country now means for them the loss of chances to gain the desired independence. The Sunnis have absolutely nothing to lose - they have already lost everything they could with the liquidation of Hussein's regime. Well aware that no one was particularly interested in their point of view, they nevertheless opposed the introduction of a federal structure in Iraq, explaining their protest by fear for the integrity of the country. The real reason, most likely, lies in the same dissatisfaction with the growing influence of the Shiites.

Prime Minister of Iraq Ibrahim al-Jafaari. Still from Rossiya TV channel, archive
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One way or another, the negotiations have reached a dead end. It is possible that the Sunnis deliberately refuse to compromise with the negotiators. After all, according to the temporary constitution, if a permanent document cannot be developed on time, the Iraqi parliament must be dissolved and re-elected. This scenario would allow Sunnis to correct the mistake of last elections, when most of their community boycotted the vote, leaving Sunni candidates in the minority in parliament. On the other hand, they cannot fail to understand that the dissolution of parliament could lead to a completely different result. In Iraq, terrorist attacks against coalition troops and Iraqis collaborating with them do not stop. Convincing the Iraqi people that a second election will make a difference will be extremely difficult. Wanting parliament to resign now is the same as wanting to plunge Iraq into chaos.

It should be noted that the federalization of Iraq is, although the most difficult subject of contradiction between the drafters of the constitution, but not the only one. Moreover, the Shiites and Kurds who cooperate with each other have different points of view on many issues. These tensions include, but are not limited to, the role of the central government, the future of the country's oil resources, the role of Islam in legislation, the rights of women, and the degree of autonomy that will be granted to the Kurds.

For the United States, which is trying to maintain its status as the liberator of Iraq, the issue of the religious component of the constitution is on a par with the future state structure of the country. At the moment, there are several options for resolving it, from which Iraqi politicians are trying to choose, and one of them, supported by Shiite religious figures, puts Islam at the forefront of Iraqi legislation. In reality, this would mean the creation of another Islamic republic, which is the last thing the United States would like. If the current draft constitution is signed, it is likely that the section on the role of religion will to some extent take into account the interests of the Kurds, who insist on secular legislation, although the desires of conservative Shiite preachers will likely become fundamental.

The ongoing debate over the future of the Iraqi constitution often spills beyond the premises where the debaters gather. Representatives of various political groups, mainly Shiites and Sunnis, make contradictory statements, which, however, indicate approximately the same thing - if necessary, the constitution will be signed without the participation of dissenters. True, at the end of July, Sunni politicians used the murder of three of their colleagues and co-religionists in order to obtain certain guarantees for the future. Having announced a boycott of further negotiations, they agreed to return to parliament only on the condition that they were allowed to form an expert commission that would review the final version of the constitution and propose their own amendments to it. It is possible that this has already been done, and the proposed amendments turned out to be unacceptable to the Shiites and Kurds.

A few days before the expected end of the negotiations, militants from the Iraqi branch of al-Qaeda, operating under the leadership of terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, added fuel to the fire. In a statement posted on an Islamist website, they announced their decision to "kill those who declared themselves partners with God in creating this invalid constitution." Previously, extremists have repeatedly stated that the only law on Iraqi territory can be Islamic Sharia.

Spectators applaud

In my opinion, this is real democracy, this proves to the whole world that Iraq is writing its own constitution.

Hashim al-Hasani, Speaker of the Iraqi Parliament, regarding the delay in approval of the draft constitution

While Iraqi political life is hectic, its participants are trying to maintain a cheerful appearance. After members of the National Assembly, bored all day in the meeting room waiting for the draft constitution, hastily voted to postpone the deadline for its development, smiling representatives of Iraq's political elite appeared before reporters. “Come on, this is a success,” Kurdish Minister Barham Saleh hastened to justify the actions of his colleagues. “We don’t kill each other.”

According to President Talabani, he would like to get a constitution as soon as possible, but even more he wants it to satisfy all major political forces. “The postponement will not undermine the confidence of the Iraqi people, who support their parliament,” Talabani is confident. According to the speaker of the National Assembly, Hashim al-Hasani, politicians have already reached agreement on many issues related to the constitution, and only “some topics are awaiting resolution.” He stressed that in the hope of meeting the deadline, the negotiators made “every effort” to resolve controversial issues.

The representative of the Sunnis, Saleh Mutlak, takes a more realistic view of things, who said that “towards the end the contradictions became too acute” and it was decided to postpone the signing of the project until the parties agreed on everything. He noted that, in his opinion, the allotted time will not be enough, but "everyone will work hard to make it in time."

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Photo by Reuters

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Iraqi politicians are echoed by top US officials who once set foot on the thorny path of fighting global tyranny. It is worth paying tribute to their endurance, because maintaining confidence in the successful adoption of the Iraqi constitution in the current situation is certainly not easy - the White House has no guarantees that in a week in Iraq the governance system built on honest word will not begin to collapse.

Thus, President Bush, who is still on vacation at his Texas ranch, said that he "applauds the heroic efforts of the negotiators in Iraq and commends them for their work to resolve remaining issues through continued dialogue." “Their efforts are a contribution to democracy and evidence that difficult problems can be resolved peacefully through debate, negotiation and compromise,” the US President said.

The head of the US State Department, Condoleezza Rice, has no doubts about success. At a press conference on Monday, she said: "I am confident that they will see this through." Rice sees nothing surprising in the fact that it took the Iraqis another week to reach a compromise on controversial issues. “They have already achieved a lot and thereby created an important incentive to complete work on the constitution,” the head of the foreign policy department noted.

On the other hand, last weekend, when the signing of the draft constitution of Iraq was already in great doubt, the American edition of the Washington Post reported that the US administration had practically lost hope of achieving its goals in Iraq. The newspaper's sources in Washington and Baghdad said that American authorities are ready to abandon their ambitions and reconsider their plan for the democratization of Iraq. Whether the United States will have to admit its intermediate defeat will become clear by the end of the week.

Ekaterina Rogozhnikova

Iraq's Intractable Constitution Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis need to overcome insurmountable differences in seven days