Prices are controlled by oil

The Yukos case triggered a fall in the Russian stock market

The Russian stock market was able to maintain a high level for only three days (the RTS index value was more than 1000 points). The deep decline in quotes was provoked by the Prosecutor General's Office, which announced on Wednesday the continuation of the Yukos case. As a result, the RTS index fell by more than 50 points yesterday. Blue chip shares fell 3.2% to 8.6%. However, experts argue that the YUKOS case was only a pretext for a long-overdue correction.

“As a result of the attack on YUKOS, the greatest damage was caused not only and not so much to the company, but to the energy sector, the oil industry, the country’s economy and the rate of economic growth of Russia,” Andrei, adviser to the Russian President on economic issues, said at a press conference in Almaty yesterday Illarionov -- The campaign against Yukos led to investment in the country's oil sector falling by 20% last year, and oil production growth in the first eight months of this year was only 0.8%, compared with 12% two years ago. ". He believes that “the current high oil prices to some extent cover and mask this damage,” but “the country is paying a high price and will continue to pay.”

However, investors look at the situation somewhat differently. “Investors are still concerned about the Yukos case and the related seizure of documents from banks,” says Alexey Butenko, asset manager at the Finam investment bank. - But by and large, after prolonged growth, the slightest reason was required to take profits. If we talk about the YUKOS case as a socio-political phenomenon, then it has long exhausted itself - large investors have already digested it, new events around the corpse of the oil company no longer bother them so much.” The head of the analytical department of Brokercreditservice, Maxim Shein, agrees with him: “YUKOS will be left without any assets, investors are ready for this. The main thing is that such phenomena do not spread to other companies.”

Analysts believe that the real reasons for the market decline were a decrease in oil prices, as well as indices of the markets of the USA, Mexico, Brazil and Asia. “The emerging markets index fell by 1.6%, and in the US the Amex Oil index (includes shares of large oil companies) fell by 4%,” says Aton-Line analyst Andrei Vernikov. The growing trend in the global oil market is breaking, hence the sales of Russian oil shares. “Prices have been rising for so long that investors have long been itching to take profits,” says Mr. Shein.

Analysts disagree about the future of the RTS index, but believe that it still has room to grow by the end of the year. The general forecast is a value of 1070-1100 points in December. The RTS index will be heavily dependent on oil prices, which, according to their estimates, could drop to $55 per barrel. “We calculated that the correlation of the RTS index with oil prices is 89%,” notes Mr. Vernikov. “Where oil goes, so does the RTS index.”

In the near future, analysts expect a slight correction. In October, Western companies complete their financial year and therefore record profits. This, according to experts, will have a negative impact on the Russian market, but in November, they believe, growth will continue.

Gyuzel GUBEYDULLINA