| This year the flu will come to Russia from both the East and the West In about a month and a half, Russians will start coughing, sneezing and buying medicine en masse, desks will be empty in schools for several days, rooms in offices will be empty, fewer people will be on transport and in cafes. The current flu epidemic is attacking Russia from both the East and the West. Scientists don't expect the next influenza epidemic to bring any particularly dangerous surprises. Doctors' concerns are connected with only one thing: whether this time the human flu will overlap with the bird flu. If this happens, no one will be able to predict how the epidemic will develop in Russia.
Lately, the influenza virus seems to be testing the strength of the collective immunity of Russians, playing with both the timing of its appearance in our country and the place of border crossing. Previously, the epidemic came to us from Asia, but last year the western gates opened for it for the first time - the flu began its march through Kaliningrad. And this year, says the director of the Influenza Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences (St. Petersburg), academician of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences Oleg Kiselev, sneezing and coughing will begin simultaneously in both the western and eastern parts of our country. “Unfortunately, with a high degree of probability we can expect that both the European and Asian regions will become gateways for infection. Now, most likely, this will happen on both sides, although, of course, the main window for the virus remains the Far East,” he believes.
Scientists expect the peak of incidence and the outbreak of the epidemic at the end of December - beginning of January. But there is no need to be sad in advance that the New Year and Christmas holidays will be overshadowed by the epidemic for many: doctors believe that there will be no terrible results of mass disease this year. “It is expected that this will be a normal epidemic, similar to last year’s, that is, of medium intensity. It will be quite common in terms of the number of cases. We do not expect any complicated or severe forms, nor do we expect mortality,” says Mr. Kiselev. According to scientists' forecasts, the epidemic will last throughout January and February and will subside at the end of February or beginning of March. Death from influenza, according to Academician Kiselev, is an extraordinary event, but deaths, as a rule, occur due to improper treatment. If a person gets sick with the flu, then he should be treated with antiviral drugs, and not fight the symptoms of the disease. As for the folk remedies that our compatriots love, they are only good for preventing infection and reducing intoxication, the institute believes.
The H3N1 and H3N2 virus strains will be circulating around the country for almost two, or even two and a half months, warns the director of the Influenza Research Institute. And this is precisely what gives specialists confidence that the upcoming epidemic does not pose a serious threat to Russia, since these are pathogens that have long been familiar to Russians. Adults who have survived dozens of seasonal epidemics and outbreaks of influenza have long ago developed collective immunity to these strains - after all, these viruses have been “attacking” our country in recent years. But children are susceptible to their influence, especially those who have not yet had the opportunity to become acquainted with these infectious agents earlier. Therefore, according to forecasts, this year, as in previous “flu” seasons, the main number of cases will most likely be among children, especially those who go to school or kindergarten. Indeed, if you look at the chronicle of the development of diseases in past years, children took the first blow of the flu, and after them adults also fell ill. Children are more likely to get the flu, not only because they have a weaker immune system, but for a simpler reason - adults simply do not always go to the doctor, often simply afraid of losing their job due to going on sick leave.
Influenza experts warn: Vladivostok and Khabarovsk are likely to be the first cities to be hit by infection this season. The influenza research institute is sounding the alarm due to the fact that influenza is usually brought to the Far East (and most likely this time it will be brought in) by uncontrolled traders from China and guest workers from Asian countries. “The presidential representative in this region should pay special attention to this - the flows of migrants and traders must be brought under control. Why do we allow citizens of other countries to travel who cannot show a vaccination certificate at the border? The health of the nation must be protected while it still exists, and this is the main task of medicine. Citizens of other countries must be vaccinated before entering our country,” says Mr. Kiselev, who complains that health authorities in Russia do not have the same power as in other countries. “In England, any statement from a physician is immediately considered at the highest level; in the USA, the statement of my colleague immediately goes to the presidential office. In our country, medicine and healthcare are traditionally considered something annoying. Meanwhile, from time to time medical problems become aggravated and they have to be solved, and if this is not dealt with, then instead of a calm solution to the problems, it turns out to be one continuous rush.”
This year, such a stir is caused primarily by the fact that no one knows how the epidemic of ordinary flu will develop against the backdrop of bird flu sweeping the world. So far, despite the fact that epizootics of avian influenza have been observed in recent months in a dozen regions of our country, not a single case of human infection with the famous H5N1 virus has been registered. But so far, none of the doctors and scientists has undertaken to make accurate forecasts of the development of the epidemiological situation if two viruses “come together”. The director of the Influenza Research Institute admits that the prospect of such a meeting is fraught with a certain danger, the extent of which is still difficult to assess. “The most important thing is to avoid this, to prevent bird flu from spreading to people. We assume that genetically, such a “meeting” could result in a rather dangerous virus,” says Oleg Kiselev. However, scientists currently believe that there are no prerequisites for Russians to become infected with bird flu. If only because since the summer, when the first epizootics were recorded in Siberia and the Urals, hundreds of thousands of people have come into contact with sick birds, and none of them got sick.
Those who want to protect themselves from the usual “human” flu can still have time to get a preventive vaccination. Literally now are the last days when it is not too late to get vaccinated. Vaccinations are done a month and a half before the outbreak of the epidemic, because the development of immunity in the body after vaccination takes time. That is why it will be too late to get vaccinated after the outbreak of the epidemic. The Influenza Research Institute traditionally recommends vaccination for everyone who is in a “risk group” - elderly people over 60 years of age, people of all ages with a bunch of chronic diseases, schoolchildren, teachers, doctors, salespeople, drivers, conductors. Every year, according to the roughest estimates, the damage from the fact that about 30 million Russians take sick leave amounts to several billion rubles. And vaccinations, scientists say, reduce the number of sick people by half. Dmitry Andreev, St. Petersburg |
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