| Andrey Illarionov summed up the economic results of the year The economy in the country is over, only politics remains. Even the presidential adviser on economic issues, Andrei Illarionov, summing up the results of the year, paid much more attention to political realities. “This year Russia has ceased to be a democratic and free country,” he said. The Freedom Index, calculated by the international organization Freedom House, has been steadily declining since the 90s. But this year, for the first time, Russia fell below the black line, becoming on a par with Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Egypt, Togo and Tunisia. Although in fairness it should be noted that the situation when an official openly makes such statements is clearly far from critical.
2005, according to him, became the year of corporations; the interests of state-owned companies turned out to be more important than both economic feasibility and the interests of the country's population. This is not a communist, nor a socialist, nor a liberal ideology, he concluded. “I would call it the term “swism.” In order to understand what this term contains, it is best to watch the TV series “Brigada,” the presidential adviser said. One of the most important principles is emphasized selectivity, which turns into discrimination, he explained. Under the same conditions, one company receives tax claims, but the other does not. In one case, foreigners are allowed in, but in another - not. “The inequality of doing business is being elevated to an absolute principle,” said Mr. Illarionov.
Hence the deterioration in economic indicators against the backdrop of rising oil prices. “In general, by the end of the year, inflation will decrease compared to 2004 to 11-11.2% versus 11.7%,” he said. GDP growth, in his opinion, at the end of the year will be 6.2%, which is lower than in 2004 (7.2%) and 2003 (7.3%). At the same time, despite the general decrease in inflation in 2005 compared to previous years, for some components, in particular for food products and paid services to the population, price growth did not decrease. According to him, the “grant from foreign economic conditions” in 2005 increased to a record $118 billion, which is approximately 15% of GDP. Last year this figure was 65 billion, and the year before - 30. But Mr. Illarionov is convinced that even with such a fantastic foreign economic situation, it was possible to prevent rampant inflation and a significant increase in the real exchange rate of the ruble, which, according to him, 11 months grew by 10.2%. To combat inflation and excessive strengthening of the ruble, Mr. Illarionov believes, it is necessary to increase the budget surplus and build up the stabilization fund. The presidential adviser also noted that the implementation of the so-called industrial policy also led to a slowdown in the growth of industrial production, primarily in the extractive industries. According to him, the transfer of Yuganskneftegaz to Rosneft led to the fact that total oil production not only did not increase, but, on the contrary, decreased.
It has become a tradition to “award nominations” at the final press conference of the presidential adviser. The most indicative in terms of Mr. Illarionov’s assessment of state policy is the “law of the year” nomination. In 2003, it was won by a liberal law on currency regulation; in the past, it was won by a government decree extending the registration period for citizens in another city to 90 days. This year there is a dash in the nomination. In Mr. Illarionov’s opinion, the authorities failed to make a single positive decision. Those laws that the government is proud of, on special economic zones and on the creation of an investment fund, are classified by them as “anti-decisions of the year.”
This time, the presidential adviser called large loans to state-owned companies amounting to more than $20 billion “the scam of the year.” The same category includes takeovers of private companies by state corporations. Moreover, we are talking not only about the sensational purchases of Yuganskneftegaz by Rosneft, but also about claims against the East Line company regarding Domodedovo Airport. In addition, Andrei Illarionov considers the increasingly active use of additional share issues to be extremely negative for the economy. The funds received from them go to the income of the state-owned companies themselves, and do not go to the budget.
Andrei Illarionov believes that an example for Russia (this event won the “Decision of the Year Outside Russia” category) should be the reprivatization and re-sale of Krivorozhstal.
As always, Mr. Illarionov could not ignore the destructive activities of his longtime enemy Anatoly Chubais. He received as many as three nominations. “Anti-decision of the year” - guaranteeing investments for the electric power industry, “Event of the year” - blackout in Moscow. And “Joke of the Year” - a statement about a possible power outage for Moscow against the backdrop of proposals for its supplies to North Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
So on New Year's Eve, Mr. Illarionov had only one wish for the government - “not to deceive economic laws.” Vera SITNINA |
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